Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
October 20, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 17-21, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 16-20, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
CENTERED ON 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 24.5N121W. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
ALSO FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF CABO
CORRIENTES, LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND A NARROW PLUME
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF PUERTO ANGEL. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
WITHIN THIS NARROW PLUME.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT AN EARLY
SEASON GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU NIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING WINDS REACHING AROUND 30 KT. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT MOST OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTH- CENTRAL
MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPIAL WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - Error: 1003
TONITE - Error: 1003
TUESDAY - Error: 1003
TUESDAY NIGHT - Error: 1003
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half Error: 1003, Southern Half NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern Half Error: 1003, Southern Half NNW 4-5, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - Northern Half Error: 1003, Southern Half NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - Northern Half Error: 1003, Southern Half NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - Northern Half Error: 1003, Southern Half NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NNW 4-5, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
WEDNESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - N 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - N 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - WNW 3-4, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - WNW 3-4, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
WEDNESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - W 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - WNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
.WITHIN 15N95W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 15N97W TO 15N96W TO
15N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL. .24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 15N95.5W TO 14.5N95W TO
15N94.5W TO 16N94.5W N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN N
SWELL. .48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 15.5N94.5W TO
16N94.5W TO 16N95W TO 16N95.5W TO 14N95.5W TO 14.5N95W TO
15.5N94.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M IN N TO NE
SWELL.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
CENTERED ON 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 24.5N121W. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
ALSO FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF CABO
CORRIENTES, LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND A NARROW PLUME
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF PUERTO ANGEL. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
WITHIN THIS NARROW PLUME.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT AN EARLY
SEASON GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION TODAY THROUGH
THU NIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING WINDS REACHING AROUND 30 KT. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT MOST OF THE WEEK. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
BY MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTH- CENTRAL
MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPIAL WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NNW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - NNW 21-26, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - N 18-23, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - N 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - N 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N75W TO 12N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N102.5W
1010 MB TO 09.5N114W TO 09N124W. ITCZ FROM 09N124W TO 09N137.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 09.5N E OF
86W AND FROM 09.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 102W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 103.5W AND
113.5W AND FROM 09.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 122.5W AND 125W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 12N95W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 13.5N102.5W 1010 MB TO 09.5N114W TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 09N124W TO 09N137.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09.5N EAST OF 86W AND FROM 09.5N
TO 13.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 103.5W AND 113.5W, AND FROM
09.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 122.5W AND 125W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PANAMA. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE
W TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS BY THU.
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 39N139W. IT
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND COVERS THE
FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W, WITH MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N AND W OF 115W. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED
FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 130W. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE N WATERS, PARTICULARLY N OF 10N AND W
OF 120W, WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND A WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH APPROACHING 125W WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE LOW CENTER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THIS WEEK.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
CENTERED ON 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 24.5N121W. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ARE
ALSO FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF CABO
CORRIENTES, LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND A NARROW PLUME
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF PUERTO ANGEL. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
WITHIN THIS NARROW PLUME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PANAMA. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE
W TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS BY THU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PANAMA. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE
W TO SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS BY THU.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - NE 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TONITE - NE 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - ENE 19-24, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY NIGHT - ENE 19-24, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
WEDNESDAY - ENE 18-23, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - ENE 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
FRIDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - WSW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - S 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (4.5 days old)
Updated 16 Oct 2025 05:56:41 GMT (4.5 days old)
PAPUA INDONESIA
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/10/16/25289001/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (3.1 days old)
Updated 17 Oct 2025 15:53:46 GMT (3.1 days old)
55 miles SE of Dutch Harbor, Alaska
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/10/17/t4a99c/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.