Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

October 7, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 121.2W 979 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 07
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 210 NM SE AND
NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N120W TO
22N121W TO 20N122W TO 20N121W TO 19N120W TO 20N119W TO 22N120W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
24N116W TO 28N123W TO 23N129W TO 15N126W TO 14N118W TO 18N115W TO
24N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 21.7N 123.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM IN SE AND NW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM IN SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N122W TO 25N124W
TO 24N126W TO 22N126W TO 20N123W TO 21N120W TO 25N122W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 25N119W TO
28N124W TO 26N130W TO 20N131W TO 17N128W TO 18N118W TO 25N119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.5N 125.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NW QUADRANT...150 NM IN NE
AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N122W TO 26N128W TO 25N129W TO 21N128W TO
21N126W TO 21N123W TO 23N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N120W TO 30N123W TO 30N139W TO
18N140W TO 17N122W TO 24N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW PRESSURE...NEAR 14N100W 1006 MB. WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N102W
TO 14N102W TO 13N100W TO 13N97W TO 16N98W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N102W 1004 MB. WITHIN 14N101W TO 15N102W TO 14N102W TO 14N101W WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N98W TO
18N101W TO 16N104W TO 14N103W TO 13N99W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N104W 1003 MB. WITHIN 15N103W TO 15N104W TO 15N105W TO 14N104W
TO 14N103W TO 15N103W W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 3.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 15N106W TO
13N104W TO 14N100W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
15N105W 1001 MB. WITHIN 16N104W TO 16N106W TO 15N106W TO 14N106W
TO 14N104W TO 15N104W TO 16N104W WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO
4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 14N107W
TO 13N106W TO 14N103W TO 17N101W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
3.5 M. WITHIN 17N99W TO 18N102W TO 17N107W TO 15N107W TO 10N105W
TO 10N100W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
16N106W 998 MB. WITHIN 17N105W TO 17N106W TO 16N107W TO 14N106W
TO 14N105W TO 15N104W TO 17N105W WINDS 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO
5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 19N104W TO 18N106W TO 16N108W
TO 13N107W TO 12N104W TO 17N100W WINDS 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N99W TO 19N104W TO 15N108W TO
07N105W TO 08N98W TO 11N95W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.5-5.7 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 6-8, Seas SW 1.5-5.5 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SW 2.8-5.5 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - NW 8-10, Seas SW 2.9-5.5 ft @ 10sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SW 0-6 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 9-11, Seas WSW 1.8-5.9 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WNW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.1-5.9 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - WNW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.5-6.2 ft @ 20sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas WSW 1.8-5.5 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 14-17, Seas WSW 3.3-6.1 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NW 16-20, Seas WSW 3.7-6 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - NW 15-19, Seas SSW 4-5.8 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 8-10, Seas SW 2.9-5.5 ft @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 12-15, Seas SSW 3.7-6.3 ft @ 20sec, Southern 1/3 NW 16-20, Seas SSW 4.2-6 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 SSE 14-18, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 17sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.2-6.2 ft @ 18sec, Southern 1/3 NW 14-17, Seas SSW 4-5.9 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 SSE 21-26, Seas SSW 0-5.7 ft @ 17sec, Middle 2/3 SSW 12-15, Seas SSW 1.6-6.1 ft @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 NW 14-17, Seas SSE 2.5-9 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 W 11-14, Seas NW 8.8-10.7 ft @ 23sec, Middle 2/3 W 8-10, Seas SSW 0-9.3 ft @ 19sec, Southern 1/3 NW 15-19, Seas SE 5.1-11.6 ft @ 13sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 14-17, Seas WNW 0-7.5 ft @ 19sec, Middle 2/3 W 7-9, Seas SE 0-9.7 ft @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 9-11, Seas W 26.8-28.3 ft @ 10sec

**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
MEXICO, AND INVEST 92E OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS PERSIST WEST OF 115W AND SOUTH OF 27N. MEANWHILE,
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE, MONITORED AS INVEST 92E, IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND SW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO GENERATING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, MAINLY BETWEEN 96W AND
103W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WEAKEN. LATER, A WEAKENING RACHEL MAY REACH THE OFFSHORE
ZONES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING INTO SUN AS IT TURNS BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS TO THE AREA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 21.1N 122.1W THIS
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 123.3W THU
MORNING, 22.2N 124.6W THU AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.2W FRI MORNING,
22.9N 124.8W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 24.1N 123.0W SAT MORNING. RACHEL
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO THE 29.2N 117.5W EARLY
SUN. A WEAKENING RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT EVENING AS IT TURNS BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY AFFECTING THE EASTERN WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - W 10-12, Seas SW 1.7-5.1 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 10-12, Seas SW 0-5 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WNW 12-15, Seas SW 2.4-4.7 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas SW 0-4.7 ft @ 10sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 6-7, Seas WSW 1.1-4.2 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - WNW 6-7, Seas SW 1.4-4.6 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SW 1.4-4.3 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 1.4-4.2 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
FRIDAY - Northern Half W 11-14, Seas SSW 2.2-4.4 ft @ 19sec, Southern Half WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 1.4-4.2 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half WNW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 19sec, Southern Half SW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5 ft @ 17sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half SSE 13-16, Seas SSW 0-4.1 ft @ 16sec, Southern Half WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 17sec
MONDAY - Northern Half W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 18sec, Southern Half NNW 19-24, Seas S 0-12.3 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half WNW 10-12, Seas SSW 3-4.7 ft @ 16sec, Southern Half WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 16.7-16.9 ft @ 12sec

**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WNW 6-7, Seas WSW 1.1-4.2 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - WNW 6-7, Seas SW 1.4-4.6 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SW 1.4-4.3 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 1.4-4.2 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
FRIDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 1.4-4.2 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - SW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5 ft @ 17sec
SUNDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 17sec
MONDAY - NNW 19-24, Seas S 0-12.3 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 16.7-16.9 ft @ 12sec

**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-3 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - WNW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NW 6-8, Seas WSW 0-3.2 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
FRIDAY - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.1 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - NNE 15-19, Seas S 0-9.3 ft @ 14sec
MONDAY - SSE 43-54, Seas SSW 0-12.8 ft @ 13sec
TUESDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 4.8-7.1 ft @ 16sec

**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-4.1 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - NNW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-4.3 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - N 6-8, Seas WSW 0-4.4 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - SE 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
FRIDAY - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - S 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.5 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SSE 40-50, Seas SSW 0-18.4 ft @ 14sec
MONDAY - SSE 41-51, Seas SSW 0-18.5 ft @ 13sec
TUESDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-9.3 ft @ 16sec

**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - E 11-14, Seas SW 0-4.4 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - E 14-17, Seas SW 0-4.8 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - ESE 23-29, Seas SE 6.9-7.6 ft @ 7sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - E 24-30, Seas SSW 6-6.9 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
FRIDAY - E 24-30, Seas SSW 6-6.9 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - ESE 23-29, Seas SW 5.9-11.8 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - ESE 12-15, Seas SW 0-10.1 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY - WNW 12-15, Seas SSW 0-7.5 ft @ 18sec
TUESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-7.1 ft @ 16sec

**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SE 6-7, Seas SSW 1.2-2.8 ft @ 12sec
TONITE - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NE 10-12, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - ESE 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.3 ft @ 20sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
FRIDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 17sec
SUNDAY - W 10-13, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 15sec
MONDAY - E 12-15, Seas SSW 0-7 ft @ 19sec
TUESDAY - SSE 5-6, Seas SSW 0-5.5 ft @ 15sec

**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 14N100W...FROM 10N115W
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 03N BETWEEN
90W AND 109W...S OF 10N AND W OF 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N86W TO A 1006 MB LOW
(EP92) NEAR 14N100W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESTARTS NEAR 10N115W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED NORTH OF 03N AND BETWEEN 90W AND 109W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 6-7, Seas W 0-2.7 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - ESE 4-5, Seas SW 0-2.6 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - ENE 6-7, Seas SW 0-2.6 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - E 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.1 ft @ 14sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
FRIDAY - NE 13-16, Seas SW 0-3.7 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - ENE 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.1 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - ENE 14-17, Seas SW 0-5.2 ft @ 15sec
MONDAY - ENE 14-17, Seas SW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
TUESDAY - E 7-9, Seas SW 0-4.9 ft @ 16sec

** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (9.6 days old)
Updated 27 Sep 2026 21:56:18 GMT (9.6 days old)
ABOUT 83 MILES WEST OF ISLA MONA

https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2026/09/27/26270050/1/WECA42/WECA42.txt

Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.

See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (0.8 days old)
Updated 06 Oct 2026 18:39:18 GMT (0.8 days old)
80 miles SE of Iliamna, Alaska

https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2026/10/06/tmi0xj/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt

WEAK53 PAAQ 061839
TIBAK1

Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
1039 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVALUATION
----------
* There is NO tsunami danger from this earthquake.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment of the earthquake and changes may occur.

* Magnitude 5.3
* Origin Time 1035 AKDT Oct 06 2026
1135 PDT Oct 06 2026
1835 UTC Oct 06 2026
* Coordinates 58.8 North 153.6 West
* Depth 60 miles
* Location 80 miles SE of Iliamna, Alaska
205 miles SW of Anchorage, Alaska

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Further information will be issued by the United States
Geological Survey (earthquake.usgs.gov) or the appropriate
regional seismic network.

* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center
message issued for this event unless additional information
becomes available.

$$