Tehuantepec Forecast
October 14, 2025, 9:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
Questions/Comments visit https://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
.LOW PRES...INVEST EP91...NEAR 12N92.5W 1008 MB. WITHIN 15N95W
TO 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 12N97W TO 13N96W TO 15N95W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...INVEST EP91...NEAR 11.5N95W 1007 MB.
WITHIN 15N95W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 13N98W TO 12N98W TO 13N96W
TO 15N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...INVEST EP91...NEAR 13N95.5W 1005 MB.
WITHIN 14N94W TO 15N96W TO 12N96W TO 11N95W TO 08N96W TO 08N94W
TO 14N94W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING S OF 30N. A
TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS PER A RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS, WITH LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, SE
OF THE GULF ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N92.5W, PER RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THE AREA ARE 5-8 FT. AS
MENTIONED, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S OF 30N CURRENTLY JUST W OF
THE OUTER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SW
WINDS AHEAD OF IT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER UNDER
THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND
CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT W OF 110W AND OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 110W IN PRIMARILY S-SW
SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION, AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL LINGER INTO WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WITH TROUGHING AHEAD OF IT. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN BEHIND THE FRONT
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN LOCALLY STRONG FROM NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU. WINDS THEN WILL WEAKEN THERE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, IS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK
OR OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - ESE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - ESE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SSE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 12sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
THURSDAY - E 14-18, Seas SSW 5.7-6.7 feet @ 18sec
FRIDAY - ESE 18-22, Seas SSW 6-7.1 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-7.9 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - SW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?