Tehuantepec Forecast
September 25, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.2N 109.2W 913 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 25
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT GUSTS
190 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...150 NM SE QUADRANT AND
180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
19N104W TO 20N108W TO 19N111W TO 16N112W TO 15N111W TO 15N108W TO
19N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 17N103W TO 23N109W
TO 24N115W TO 12N115W TO 09N109W TO 10N105W TO 17N103W...WITHIN
60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 18.2N 112.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N109W TO 21N111W TO 21N113W
TO 18N115W TO 15N112W TO 17N110W TO 19N109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 21N106W TO 27N117W
TO 10N118W TO 09N108W TO 11N106W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES AND WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 21.5N 113.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 12.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 22N111W TO
24N113W TO 23N116W TO 19N117W TO 17N114W TO 19N112W TO 22N111W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
23N109W TO 28N117W TO 17N118W TO 13N117W TO 11N112W TO 14N108W TO
23N109W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 18.3N 123.6W 951 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 25
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT
GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 20N122W TO 22N124W TO 21N127W TO 17N126W TO
15N122W TO 17N121W TO 20N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 24N118W TO 25N124W TO 22N131W TO
16N134W TO 10N130W TO 12N117W TO 24N118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 20.0N 123.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 22N122W TO
23N125W TO 22N127W TO 18N126W TO 17N125W TO 18N122W TO 22N122W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF ARE...WITHIN
27N119W TO 29N127W TO 26N131W TO 16N131W TO 10N127W TO 10N119W TO
27N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 22.0N 122.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 23N122W TO
25N123W TO 25N125W TO 23N127W TO 20N125W TO 20N124W TO 23N122W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
30N121W TO 30N130W TO 26N139W TO 14N128W TO 20N121W TO 30N121W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE BROADER CIRCULATION, DEEP MOISTURE,
AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS, EL SALVADOR, AND GUATEMALA, AS WELL AS
CHIAPAS AND OAXACA IN MEXICO, WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICES AS WELL AS THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AWAY FROM HURRICANE POLO, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD
IS LEADING TO MODERATE NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
GAP WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OFFSHORE OAXACA AND CHIAPAS HAS INCREASED TO
MODERATE INTENSITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS NEAR 17.2N 109.2W AT 2
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
913 MB. HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 110.6W SAT MORNING,
18.2N 112.1W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 19.6N 113.2W SUN MORNING. POLO
WILL THEN REACH 21.5N 113.7W SUN AFTERNOON, 23.4N 113.6W MON
MORNING, AND 25.1N 112.8W MON AFTERNOON. POLO WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SONORA, MEXICO, TUE
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE ODALYS IS NEAR 18.3N 123.6W AT 2 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 951 MB. ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 18.9N 123.5W SAT MORNING, 20.0N
123.4W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 21.1N 123.3W SUN MORNING. ODALYS WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 122.9W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOME POST- TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 22.4N 122.3W MON MORNING. POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.9N
121.6W MON AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF ODALYS WILL BE WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA, SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH MOSTLY MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS NEAR 17.2N 109.2W AT 2
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
913 MB. HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 110.6W SAT MORNING,
18.2N 112.1W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 19.6N 113.2W SUN MORNING. POLO
WILL THEN REACH 21.5N 113.7W SUN AFTERNOON, 23.4N 113.6W MON
MORNING, AND 25.1N 112.8W MON AFTERNOON. POLO WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SONORA, MEXICO, TUE
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE ODALYS IS NEAR 18.3N 123.6W AT 2 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 951 MB. ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 18.9N 123.5W SAT MORNING, 20.0N
123.4W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 21.1N 123.3W SUN MORNING. ODALYS WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 122.9W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOME POST- TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 22.4N 122.3W MON MORNING. POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.9N
121.6W MON AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF ODALYS WILL BE WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 4-5, Seas SW 0-4.1 ft @ 14sec
TONITE - SSE 8-10, Seas SW 1.3-4.5 ft @ 14sec
SATURDAY - SE 12-15, Seas SW 2.1-4.9 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - ESE 11-14, Seas SW 2.4-5.2 ft @ 13sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - ESE 11-14, Seas SW 2.4-5.2 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - E 10-13, Seas SW 4.7-6.7 ft @ 17sec
TUESDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SW 0-7.1 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 13-16, Seas WSW 7.2-7.5 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY - WSW 18-23, Seas WSW 6.9-7.3 ft @ 9sec