Tehuantepec Forecast

September 14, 2025, 9:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 18.9N 110.7W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP
14 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E SEMICIRCLE
AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. WITHIN 19N110W TO 19N111W TO 18N111W TO
19N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 20.4N 113.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. WITHIN 21N113W TO 21N114W TO
20N115W TO 20N114W TO 20N113W TO 21N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N114W TO 21N114.5W TO 21N115W TO
20N115W TO 20N114.5W TO 20.5N114.5W TO 21N114W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM MARIO NEAR 22.8N 117.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0
NM SW QUADRANT. WITHIN 23.5N117.5W TO 23.5N118.5W TO 23N118.5W TO
23N118W TO 22.5N118W TO 22.5N117.5W TO 23.5N117.5W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N117W TO 24N119W TO
22N118W TO 23N118W TO 23N117W TO 24N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.

.42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N95W TO 16N97W TO 15N97W TO 15N96W TO
15N95W TO 16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N96W TO 15N98W TO 14N97W TO 14N96W TO
15N95W TO 16N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE OCCURRING SURROUNDING MARIO FROM OFFSHORE OF JALISCO AND
COLIMA TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE N
TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA. A 1008
MB LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. RIDGING
EXTENDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS, AND MAINLY
MODERATE NW WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL AS OBSERVED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 5 TO 6 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AWAY FROM MARIO AND
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM MARIO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N
110.7W AT 14/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MARIO WILL
MOVE TO 19.6N 111.9W MON MORNING, 20.4N 113.9W MON AFTERNOON,
21.5N 115.9W TUE MORNING, 22.8N 117.9W TUE AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 24.0N 119.7W WED MORNING, AND 24.9N 121.2W WED
AFTERNOON. MARIO WILL DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO MON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, PULSING FRESH NE GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SSE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-6.8 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - SSE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-6.8 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - SSE 3-4, Seas SSW 0-6.9 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SSE 3-4, Seas SSW 0-6.9 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 0-6.5 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NE 12-15, Seas SSW 0-6.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNE 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SATURDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - Not available yet