Tehuantepec Forecast
October 24, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 12.0N 102.6W 965 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 24
MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND
210 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
15N99W TO 16N103W TO 14N106W TO 08N105W TO 07N100W TO 11N98W TO
15N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 15N98W TO 17N105W TO 12N110W TO 06N106W TO 05N102W TO
09N98W TO 15N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 13.8N 103.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...210 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 270 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 17N107W
TO 13N108W TO 10N106W TO 10N101W TO 12N99W TO 17N100W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N98W TO
20N106W TO 15N112W TO 06N108W TO 05N102W TO 08N99W TO 16N98W...
INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 15.8N 103.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210
NM E SEMICIRCLE...240 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 270 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 20N106W TO
18N108W TO 13N107W TO 12N103W TO 13N101W TO 17N100W...INCLUDING
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 22N109W TO 21N111W TO 14N114W
TO 08N108W TO 07N104W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 15N95W TO 16N94W
...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N94W TO 15N98W TO
12N98W TO 12N96W TO 13N94W TO 16N94W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 15N95W TO 16N94W
...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35
KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N94W TO 15N98W TO
12N98W TO 12N96W TO 13N94W TO 16N94W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND INTENSIFYING HURRICANE VANCE IS
SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS FUNNELING INTO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE TONIGHT THROUGH LIKELY MON NIGHT WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE VANCE, AND A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND VANCE, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
SIMILAR WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEARSHORE MAINLAND MEXICO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM VANCE
AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, VANCE WILL MOVE TO 12.8N 102.8W SAT MORNING,
13.8N 103.1W SAT EVENING, 14.8N 103.4W SUN MORNING, 15.8N 103.8W
SUN EVENING, 16.3N 104.0W MON MORNING, AND 16.8N 104.2W MON
EVENING. VANCE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
17.6N 104.3W LATE TUE. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO
GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH LIKELY MON NIGHT OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE,
THEN PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL LINGER TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY
SWELLS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THOSE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM VANCE AND THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 17-21, Seas SW 4.2-5 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - N 16-20, Seas WSW 4.7-6 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - N 18-23, Seas WSW 4.1-5.3 ft @ 11sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - N 17-21, Seas WSW 3.3-4.2 ft @ 10sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
MONDAY - N 18-22, Seas WSW 3.3-4.1 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY - N 14-17, Seas NNW 3.3-4 ft @ 5sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas NNW 3.3-4 ft @ 5sec
THURSDAY - NNW 14-17, Seas SSW 0-5.1 ft @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 4.1-6.4 ft @ 15sec