Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
July 17, 2026, 3:01 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.9N 119.1W 994 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL
17 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE...150
NM SW QUADRANT AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 19N113W TO 21N117W TO 20N122W TO 09N124W TO 08N119W TO
11N114W TO 19N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N112W TO 22N115W TO 19N123W TO
09N126W TO 06N117W TO 10N112W TO 20N112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.4N 120.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.5N 121.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
330 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N119W TO 21N126W TO
16N126W TO 11N120W TO 18N115W TO 23N119W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N113W TO 23N116W TO
22N126W TO 14N126W TO 10N124W TO 11N114W TO 19N113W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 20.4N 124.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
330 NM NE QUADRANT...300 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS... AND 270 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N118W TO 27N123W
TO 27N131W TO 21N133W TO 16N123W TO 18N119W TO 23N118W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 25N117W TO
27N128W TO 23N134W TO 18N132W TO 11N119W TO 18N115W TO 25N117W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CONTINUE TO IMPACT CLARION ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 15 FT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 111W.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE AND TO THE EAST OF ELIDA RESULTING IN
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ALSO AWAY FROM
ELIDA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WELL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 103.5W DISCUSSED
ABOVE, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
16.4N 120.4W FRI MORNING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH OUTER ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS IMPROVING
ACROSS THE AREA SAT. AS ELIDA MOVES TOWARD THE NW, THE RIDGE
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN LEADING TO MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS GENERATING BY ELIDA WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FRI
THROUGH SUN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT, MAINLY ACROSS
THE OUTER FORECAST WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT TIMES. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 119.1W AT 17/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 23 FT OR 7.0 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER,
EXCEPT WITHIN 540 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF ELIDA. ELIDA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRI, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND
ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRI. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 669 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
103.5W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 669 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103.5W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
SATURDAY - Not available yet
SATURDAY NIGHT - Not available yet
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - Not available yet
MONDAY - Not available yet
TUESDAY - Not available yet
WEDNESDAY - W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?
THURSDAY - SSW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?