Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

August 31, 2026, 8:02 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.5N 125.8W 950 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 31
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N123W TO 21N125W TO
22N127W TO 18N129W TO 14N125W TO 16N123W TO 19N123W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 7.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N119W TO
30N121W TO 26N133W TO 20N136W TO 13N131W TO 11N123W TO 20N119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.1N 129.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER 240 NM IN NW QUADRANT...180 NM IN NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N129W TO 23N132W TO 19N133W TO 17N132W TO
16N128W TO 19N126W TO 23N129W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 6.5
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N128W TO 24N140W TO 17N140W TO
12N131W TO 13N126W TO 19N124W TO 26N128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.9N 133.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 240 NM IN NW QUADRANT...180 NM IN
NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N132W TO 24N137W TO 21N137W TO 18N135W TO
18N131W TO 25N132W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 7.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N129W TO 27N140W TO 11N140W TO 09N137W
TO 10N129W TO 18N128W TO 26N129W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.

...STORM WARNING...
.LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N107W 1005 MB LOW. WITHIN 17N104W TO
18N108W TO 16N111W TO 10N110W TO 09N107W TO 11N105W TO 17N104W WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
NEAR 14N109W 1001 MB. WITHIN 14N108W TO 14N109W TO 13N109W TO
13N108W TO 14N108W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N106W TO 19N109W TO 16N113W TO 09N110W TO
11N106W TO 18N106W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...15N110W 994 MB. WITHIN 15N109W TO 16N109W TO 15N111W
TO 14N110W TO 14N109W TO 15N109W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO
7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N106W TO 20N112W TO 17N115W TO 10N111W
TO 10N107W TO 18N106W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...16N111W 990 MB. WITHIN 17N111W TO 16N112W TO 15N111W
TO 15N110W TO 17N111W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 5.5 TO 7.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N110W TO 17N112W TO 16N112W TO 15N111W TO
15N110W TO 17N110W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 4.5 TO 5.5 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N108W TO 21N113W TO 18N116W TO
14N115W TO 11N111W TO 13N106W TO 21N108W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...17N113W 990 MB. WITHIN 17N112W TO 18N112W TO 18N113W
TO 17N113W TO 17N112W WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 6.0 TO 7.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N111W TO 18N113W TO 17N114W TO 16N113W TO
17N111W TO 18N111W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 5.0 TO 6.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 22N108W TO 22N114W TO 17N118W TO
11N112W TO 15N106W TO 22N108W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 5.0 M.

A 1005 MB LOW AT 13N107W, DESIGNATED INVEST EP95, HAS PEAK WINDS
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES OF 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 5-7 FT OVER
PACIFIC WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
06N-17N BETWEEN 98W-114W.
HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 125.8W AT 31/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 35 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
124W-128W. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. KARINA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND ON TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KARINA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP95):
A 1005 MB LOW AT 13N107W, DESIGNATED INVEST EP95, IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING
WHILE IT MOVES STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N-17N BETWEEN
98W-114W. PEAK WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 KT AND LARGEST SEAS 11 FT.
BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ZONE NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST
SEAS SHOULD OCCUR WED AND THU. WHILE THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY
STAY OUTSIDE OF THE ZONES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FRESH TO
NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE SWELL ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR IN THESE OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THU THROUGH SAT.
FOR THE FORECAST, INVEST EP95 IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING WHILE IT MOVES
STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ZONE NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS SHOULD OCCUR WED AND THU. WHILE
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY STAY OUTSIDE OF THE ZONES WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, FRESH TO NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS AND LARGE TO VERY
LARGE SWELL ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THESE OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THU
THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - Error: 1002 - no data
TONITE - Error: 1002 - no data
TUESDAY - Error: 1002 - no data
TUESDAY NIGHT - Error: 1002 - no data

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - Error: 1002 - no data
THURSDAY - Error: 1002 - no data
FRIDAY - Error: 1002 - no data
SATURDAY - Error: 1002 - no data
SUNDAY - Error: 1002 - no data