Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 9, 2025, 9:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
Questions/Comments visit http://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT IN THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, INCLUDING THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND THE WATERS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO BOTH PRISCILLA, RAYMOND AND THE
REMNANT LOW OF OCTAVE CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGHLY BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND CABO
CORRIENTES, THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND. OUTSIDE
THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE THE N AND CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA IS CENTERED WEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NEAR 24.4N 114.9W AT 09/2100 UTC, MOVING
NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 19 FT. MODEST CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRI. FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA,
SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GUERRERO IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16.5N 101.7W AT 09/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE
FRI, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN BY EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL BRING A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND JALISCO, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL
ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI AND REACH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR ON SAT. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SSE 16-20, Seas S 3.5-5 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - SSE 16-20, Seas S 3.5-5 feet @ 11sec
SATURDAY - SSE 19-24, Seas SSE 9.8-10 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SSE 19-24, Seas SSE 9.8-10 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - S 13-16, Seas S 8.9-9.2 feet @ 8sec
MONDAY - SW 10-13, Seas SSW 6-7.2 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Not available yet