Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 16, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.8N 102.5W 982 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 16
MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT
GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N100W TO 17N102W TO 16N105W
TO 13N104W TO 13N102W TO 14N100W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 20N108W TO
13N110W TO 09N102W TO 12N99W TO 16N99W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 16.9N 104.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 120 NM NE
QUADRANT...150 NM NW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS
TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N104W TO 18N105W TO 16N106W TO
15N106W TO 15N104W TO 16N102W TO 19N104W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N102W TO 21N109W TO 19N113W
TO 11N113W TO 08N106W TO 13N101W TO 18N102W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 19.7N 105.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 60 NM E
SEMICIRCLE 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
20N106W TO 21N105W TO 21N107W TO 20N107W TO 19N106W TO 19N105W TO
20N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N105W TO 23N113W TO
19N114W TO 17N112W TO 15N106W TO 18N104W TO 21N105W AND WITHIN
60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
...GALE WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS
35 TO 45 KT. SEAS TO 2.5 M. WITHIN 14N94W TO 14N96W TO 13N96W TO
12N96W TO 12N95W TO 13N94W TO 14N94W N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N95W TO
14N93W TO 15N93W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. WITHIN
13N92W TO 15N97W TO 14N99W TO 10N99W TO 07N98W TO 09N93W TO
13N92W N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
FRESH N WINDS HAVE BEGUN ALONG THE COAST OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS
5-7 FT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS AND 2-5 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 103.1W SAT
MORNING, 16.9N 104.1W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.5N 105.1W SUN MORNING
APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES, 19.7N 105.9W SUN AFTERNOON, WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.5N 106.6W MON MORNING, AND 20.9N
107.1W MON AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER 21.5N 108.1W TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION TO TRUDY, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT HAS STARTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EARLY-SEASON TEHUANTEPER
SHOULD REACH GALE-FORCE NORTHERLIES SAT MORNING AND LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH TUE, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON WED. FINALLY
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE EAST PACIFIC. FORMATION CHANCE IS NEAR ZERO
THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND MEDIUM THROUGH 7 DAYS.
THE REMNANTS OF SIMON ARE CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 110.3W AT 16/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 7 FT. NO DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SIMON. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE
REMNANTS OF SIMON COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
DATA NOTE - Using cached forecast from 6 hours ago.
TODAY - SE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 19sec
TONITE - S 4-5, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - S 4-5, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-6.2 ft @ 16sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-6.3 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.8 ft @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 1-4 ft @ 14sec
THURSDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-4.1 ft @ 17sec