Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 25, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 14.9N 104.2W 994 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
25 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM NE
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...150 NM NW QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N100W TO 18N105W TO 15N107W TO
12N107W TO 11N102W TO 13N100W TO 16N100W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 21N110W TO 17N113W TO 10N111W TO 06N108W TO 06N101W
TO 12N96W TO 21N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 15.4N 105.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 180 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO
19N106W TO 16N108W TO 14N108W TO 12N105W TO 14N102W TO
17N101W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N100W TO 21N109W TO
17N113W TO 14N112W TO 10N105W TO 12N101W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 16.9N 106.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N103W TO 19N106W TO 18N108W TO
16N108W TO 15N104W TO 15N102W TO 17N103W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 17N101W TO 20N109W TO 17N113W TO 13N111W TO
11N108W TO 12N102W TO 17N101W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 15N95W TO 16N95W TO 16N95.5W TO 15N96W TO 14N97W TO
14N96W TO 15N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N94W TO
16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N98W TO 13N98W TO 13N96W TO 14N94W TO
15N94W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...AND
SEAS TO 5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96.5W
TO 14N95W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N94W TO
16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N100W TO 12N98W TO 12N95W TO 15N94W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N95W TO 16N95.5W TO 15N96W TO
14N96.5W TO 15N95W TO 16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M. WITHIN
14N96.5W TO 14N97W TO 13N96W TO 13.5N95W TO 14N96.5W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN NE SWELL.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROPICAL STORM VANCE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AS SEEN ON RECENT ASCAT DATA PASSES. SEAS ARE
MODERATE AWAY FROM VANCE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION, EXCEPT
SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AWAY FROM THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM VANCE WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.0N 104.8W LATE TONIGHT,
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.4N 105.5W MON
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT, TO NEAR
16.0N 106.2W LATE MON NIGHT, TO NEAR 16.9N 106.6W TUE AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT, TO NEAR 17.7N
107.0W LATE TUE NIGHT AND TO NEAR 19.0N 107.2W WED AFTERNOON. VANCE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES NEAR TO NEAR 21.0N
107.4W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
ELSEWHERE, NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR GALE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE BACK UP TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT,
THEN DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE- FORCE BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME. RESULTANT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH TUE. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE
NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH TUE EVENING. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM VANCE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXCEPT MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNW 7-9, Seas SSE 0-3.9 ft @ 12sec
TONITE - NNW 10-12, Seas SSE 1.4-4.2 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSE 1.4-4.2 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NNW 6-8, Seas SSE 1.5-4.1 ft @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
TUESDAY - N 7-9, Seas SSE 0-3.9 ft @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSE 0.9-4 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas SSE 0-4.5 ft @ 9sec
FRIDAY - E 5-6, Seas SSE 0-3.5 ft @ 8sec
SATURDAY - ENE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 14sec