Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

August 28, 2026, 8:01 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 13.7N 115.5W 990 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 28
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE
QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
FROM 07N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 04N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 119W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 14.6N 116.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 15.9N 118.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
180 NM NE QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND
120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER...
EXCEPT 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM
OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 07N TO 24N BETWEEN 108W AND 125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.5N 121.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SW QUADRANT AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 240
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM OF
CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM SW QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 09N TO 28N BETWEEN 112W AND 131W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 IN MIXED SWELL.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.5N 133.4W 1003 MB AT 2100 UTC AUG 28
MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.8N 135.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM NE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 132 AND 136W WINDS 2O KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.1N 138.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM NE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N TO 17N W OF 135W WINDS 2O KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.

FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF KARINA ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN THIS AREA, AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SAT. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N PER RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM KARINA WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 14.6N 116.6W SAT MORNING, MOVE TO 15.9N 118.4W SAT
AFTERNOON, 16.9N 120.1W SUN MORNING, 17.5N 121.9W SUN AFTERNOON,
17.9N 123.4W MON MORNING, AND 18.2N 125.1W MON AFTERNOON. KARINA
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.1N 128.1W
TUE AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THERE AT TIMES, THEN PULSING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH THEREAFTER. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W AT 28/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 24 FT (8.0 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM
NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD TURN. KARINA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
DATA NOTE - Using cached forecast from 6 hours ago.
TODAY - SW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.9-4.7 ft @ 18sec
TONITE - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 2.2-5.4 ft @ 17sec
SATURDAY - SW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-6.5 ft @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-6.3 ft @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 14sec
MONDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.3-5.4 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SE 7-9, Seas SW 0-4.8 ft @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 5-6, Seas SW 0-4.7 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas WSW 0-6.1 ft @ 12sec