Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 28, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
OUTSIDE OF VANCE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH MODERATE SEAS, OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO.
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR
20.1N 109.1W AT 28/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
12-13 FT OR 4 M. VANCE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE NE TO E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE OF VANCE AND 0 NM ELSEWHERE. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHEAST, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 H,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON THU AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
VANCE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SINALOA, FAR SOUTHWESTERN DURANGO, AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NAYARIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
VANCE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE WILL MOVE TO 21.2N
108.7W THU MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 22.6N 108.5W
THU AFTERNOON, 24.1N 108.3W FRI MORNING, AND DISSIPATE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE FRESH TO
NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY FRI, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
SAT NIGHT, THEN FRESH TO STRONG THEREAFTER. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - ENE 19-24, Seas S 3.9-7.2 ft @ 9sec
TONITE - ESE 19-24, Seas SSE 4.1-8.4 ft @ 9sec
THURSDAY - ESE 19-24, Seas SSE 4.1-8.4 ft @ 9sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
FRIDAY - S 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 15sec
SATURDAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 15sec
SUNDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 2.6-4.3 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NNW 14-17, Seas SSW 4.5-5.5 ft @ 14sec