Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 4, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 113.8W 965 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 04 MOVING
WNW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM
SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN
109W AND 117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 11N TO 25N BETWEEN 106W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.5N 115.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE FROM
16N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.7N 119.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
110W AND 119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL,
PREVAIL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY RACHEL ARE IMPACTING THE ENTRANCE
TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST OF
105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.3N 114.7W
THIS EVENING, 20.5N 115.8W MON MORNING, 20.7N 117.5W MON EVENING,
20.7N 119.0W TUE MORNING, 20.9N 120.5W TUE EVENING, AND 21.3N
122.2W WED MORNING. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
22.2N 125.2W EARLY THU. SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT.
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS
WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W AT 04/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF
CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND THAT MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
BEGINNING ON MONDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SSE 14-18, Seas SW 0-7.5 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - SSE 10-13, Seas SW 0-7 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY - SSE 10-13, Seas SW 0-7 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY NIGHT - W 3-4, Seas WSW 0-5.6 ft @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
TUESDAY - W 5-6, Seas WSW 0-5.4 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - W 7-9, Seas WSW 0-5.2 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - W 8-10, Seas WSW 0-5.3 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.9 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - WNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 17sec