Sea of Cortez Forecast
October 14, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 11.1N 99.0W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
14 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60
NM N SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N108W TO
19N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 22N107W TO 21N109W TO 20N110W TO
19N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N106W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 12.4N 101.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30
NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO
19N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 20N107W TO 20N108W TO 20N110W TO 18N109W
TO 18N108W TO 19N108W TO 20N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.0N 102.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT...120
NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO
19N108W TO 20N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 21N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N109W TO 20N108W TO
19N109W TO 19N107W TO 21N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.8N 107.9W 969 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 14
MOVING SW OR 230 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 12N97W TO 13N99W
TO 13N100W TO 11N100W TO 10N99W TO 11N97W TO 12N97W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 13N96W TO
14N97W TO 13N100W TO 12N97W TO 10N99W TO 11N96W TO 13N96W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.4N 108.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO
7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N99W TO 14N102W TO 13N103W TO 12N103W
TO 11N101W TO 11N100W TO 14N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 15N98W TO 15N102W TO 13N103W TO
11N103W TO 09N100W TO 10N98W TO 15N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.6N 108.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO
7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N102W TO 17N103W TO 14N104W
TO 12N102W TO 13N100W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N98W TO 18N104W TO 15N107W TO
13N107W TO 08N101W TO 09N98W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 30N115W TO
29N114W TO 30N112W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N112W TO 31N113W TO 32N115W TO
30N115W TO 25N110W TO 27N109W TO 29N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 32N115W TO 30N115W TO
29N114W TO 29N112W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHERE
SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. FRESH WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TRUDY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 107.9W AT 14/0900 UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
21N BETWEEN 106W AND 109W. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE OF WEST- CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMON COULD BE
NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON THURSDAY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 99.0W AT 14/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT NEAR 17 FT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 H, REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SOMEWHERE
AROUND 48 H AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR AROUND 60-72 H BEFORE
STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 19.8N 107.9W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
969 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.6N 108.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 19.4N
108.1W THU MORNING, 19.2N 108.3W THU AFTERNOON, 19.6N 108.5W FRI
MORNING, 20.9N 109.1W FRI AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 22.4N 109.8W SAT MORNING. SIMON WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
24.6N 111.1W EARLY SUN. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS NEAR 11.1N 99.0W
AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 11.5N 100.2W THIS
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.4N 101.3W THU
MORNING, 13.1N 101.8W THU AFTERNOON, 14.0N 102.4W FRI MORNING,
14.9N 102.9W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 16.0N 103.6W SAT MORNING. TRUDY
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.5N 105.2W
EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - NW 13-16, Seas SW 1.6-3.7 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - N 12-15, Seas SW 0-3.7 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - N 12-15, Seas SW 0-3.7 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - WNW 4-5, Seas SW 0-3.3 ft @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - N 10-13, Seas SSW 0-6.7 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 2.3-5.9 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 2.3-5.9 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - N 9-11, Seas SSW 2.4-5.4 ft @ 20sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
FRIDAY - Northern Half WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 1.2-3.6 ft @ 19sec, Southern Half N 9-11, Seas SSW 2.4-5.4 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 17sec, Southern Half SE 17-21, Seas SSW 10.3-11.5 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half W 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 16sec, Southern Half S 21-26, Seas SSW 9.3-10.5 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - Northern Half WSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 15sec, Southern Half NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.8 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half W 11-14, Seas SSW 1-3.1 ft @ 14sec, Southern Half NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 14sec