Sea of Cortez Forecast
September 24, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.0N 102.4W 923 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 24
MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT
GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
150 NM W SEMICIRCLE...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 12.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N99W TO 18N103W TO
17N105W TO 15N105W TO 13N104W TO 13N101W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 33
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N93W TO
14N100W TO 19N104W TO 15N106W TO 10N104W TO 10N96W TO 15N93W...
INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.9N 105.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150
NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 180 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS WITH
SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N103W TO 20N105W TO 18N109W TO
14N108W TO 14N105W TO 15N104W TO 18N103W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N100W TO 22N108W TO
17N112W TO 13N108W TO 10N109W TO 09N103W TO 16N100W...INCLUDING
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.3N 109.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM
SE QUADRANT...AND 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N107W TO 20N112W TO 17N113W TO 14N113W TO
12N110W TO 14N107W TO 19N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N104W TO 23N109W TO 26N117W TO
11N117W TO 09N105W TO 19N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES
AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.6N 126.7W 978 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 24
MOVING E OR 085 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS
90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...AND 240 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N127W TO 20N131W TO 17N132W TO 10N129W TO
1N124W TO 14N122W TO 20N127W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N123W TO 21N126W TO 22N131W TO
16N136W TO 10N127W TO 14N122W TO 19N123W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 16.8N 124.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS
...AND 210 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
17N120W TO 21N125W TO 19N130W TO 11N127W TO 12N121W TO 17N120W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
19N119W TO 23N128W TO 19N135W TO 15N135W TO 10N130W TO 11N120W TO
19N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 18.5N 123.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS
TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N120W TO 23N125W TO 18N129W TO
15N126W TO 16N121W TO 17N120W TO 21N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N116W TO 26N119W TO
23N128W TO 16N131W TO 10N125W TO 13N116W TO 24N116W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.3N 109.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM
SE QUADRANT...AND 240 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N107W TO 20N112W TO 17N113W TO 14N113W TO
12N110W TO 14N107W TO 19N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N104W TO 23N109W TO 26N117W TO
11N117W TO 09N105W TO 19N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES
AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
AWAY FROM POLO, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE, SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN A
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 102.4W AT 24/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
923 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 41 FT OR 12.5 M. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE CENTER, EXCEPT 150 NM W QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM IN
THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 240 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF POLO. POLO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SAT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. POLO IS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE, AND POLO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THU. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS,
AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 103.7W
THU MORNING, 16.9N 105.6W THU EVENING, 17.1N 107.5W FRI MORNING,
17.3N 109.4W FRI EVENING, 17.9N 111.0W SAT MORNING, AND 19.2N
112.2W SAT EVENING NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. POLO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 22.5N 113.3W LATE SUN
AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ODALYS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 20.8N 122.7W LATE
SUN AS IT SLOWS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
ALSO, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC STARTING EARLY THU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 103.7W
THU MORNING, 16.9N 105.6W THU EVENING, 17.1N 107.5W FRI MORNING,
17.3N 109.4W FRI EVENING, 17.9N 111.0W SAT MORNING, AND 19.2N
112.2W SAT EVENING NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. POLO WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 22.5N 113.3W LATE SUN
AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ODALYS
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 20.8N 122.7W LATE
SUN AS IT SLOWS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
VERY LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER
TOGETHER RESULTING IN VERY DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 13-16, Seas SW 2.4-3.8 ft @ 13sec
TONITE - N 14-17, Seas SW 0-4.2 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY - N 14-17, Seas SW 0-4.2 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WSW 4-5, Seas SW 0-3.8 ft @ 12sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSE 1.5-3.7 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - SSW 6-7, Seas SSE 0-5.2 ft @ 13sec
FRIDAY - SSW 8-10, Seas S 0-7.3 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SW 6-8, Seas S 0-8.8 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half WNW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 12sec, Southern Half SSE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-8.7 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half ESE 15-19, Seas SSW 0-8.1 ft @ 14sec, Southern Half S 11-14, Seas SW 0-8.6 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - Northern Half SE 44-55, Seas SSW 0-10.6 ft @ 12sec, Southern Half S 9-11, Seas SW 0-8.1 ft @ 12sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half W 23-29, Seas SW 0-10.6 ft @ 12sec, Southern Half SSW 8-10, Seas WSW 0-6.1 ft @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half WNW 10-12, Seas ENE 6.2-6.7 ft @ 5sec, Southern Half NNW 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.2 ft @ 15sec