Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 12, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.2N 106.8W 966 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 12
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT
GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N106W TO
21N107W TO 20N107W TO 20N106W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.5 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 22N106W TO 23N111W TO 21N114W TO 14N109W TO 15N101W
TO 22N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.9N 107.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM MILES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N107W TO 22N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N107W TO
21N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 23N106W TO 23N108W TO 22N109W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO
20N106W TO 23N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.5N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS LESS THAN
4 M. WITHIN 22N106W TO 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W TO 21N107W
TO 22N106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 23N106W TO 23N107W TO 22N109W TO 21N109W TO 22N107W
TO 22N106W TO 23N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N114W TO 31N114.5W TO 30.5N114.5W TO
30N114W TO 30.5N114W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N114W TO 31N114W TO 30N115W TO
30N114W TO 28N112W TO 30N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 106.8W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AFFECT LAS TRES MARIAS THROUGH LATE TUE
BEFORE BEGINNING TO VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, AND MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SINALOA ON THU NIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGTHENING LATE TUE
THROUGH THU. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA BY
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ALONG 31.5N SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA NORTE TO BEYOND 24.5N120W.
FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT ARE IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 5 FT IN S SWELL FROM SIMON ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE. MOSTLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE SW TO W WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINING
BAJA WATERS, BECOMING MODERATE NW SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND
INTO SIMON. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE SEAS GENERATED FROM SIMON
ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER SOUTH OF BAJA BETWEEN 110W
AND THE SW MEXICAN COAST. FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IMPACT LAS TRES MARIAS THROUGH TUE, REACHING
NEAR 20.5N 107.0W TONIGHT, NEAR 20.9N 107.5W TUE AFTERNOON, NEAR
21.2N 107.7W TUE NIGHT, NEAR 21.5N 107.7W WED AFTERNOON, NEAR
22.2N 107.4W WED NIGHT, AND INLAND NEAR 24.2N 106.6W BY FRI
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF GUATEMALA, ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE WATERS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TO 21N128W IS FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 20N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N W OF 120W, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SE 34-42, Seas SSW 14.7-14.7 ft @ 8sec
TONITE - SSE 27-34, Seas SW 13-13 ft @ 9sec
TUESDAY - SSE 27-34, Seas SW 13-13 ft @ 9sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 5.3-6.8 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 5.3-6.8 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 15sec
FRIDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - NW 12-15, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.3 ft @ 16sec