Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 15, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 12.4N 100.8W 994 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT
GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...45 NM
SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 14N99W TO 14N101W TO 13N102W TO 12N101W TO 12N100W TO
12N99W TO 14N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N99W TO 15N102W TO 11N103W TO 10N102W TO
10N100W TO 13N97W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 12.9N 101.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 13.6N 101.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 15N100W TO 16N102W TO 15N103W TO 14N103W TO 12N102W TO
12N100W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N97W TO 17N103W TO 15N107W TO 06N105W TO
07N98W TO 11N96W TO 16N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 15.3N 102.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
270 NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N95W TO 19N105W TO 18N109W TO 14N109W TO
12N104W TO 11N96W TO 15N95W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 18N101W TO 17N104W TO 15N104W TO
14N103W TO 14N100W TO 15N99W TO 18N101W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 19.1N 108.6W 991 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT
15 MOVING SW OR 220 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N108W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M IN W TO NW SWELL. REMAINDER AREA
WITHIN 21N108W TO 20N109W TO 21N110W TO 18N110W TO 18N109W TO
18N107W TO 21N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 19.1N 108.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N108W TO 19N108W TO
20N109W TO 19N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 20N107W TO 20N109W TO 20N110W
TO 18N110W TO 17N108W TO 18N107W TO 20N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 20.8N 110.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS
TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N107W TO 23N108W TO 23N110W TO
22N111W TO 20N110W TO 20N108W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 21N109W TO 21N110W TO 21N111W
TO 20N110W TO 21N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.WITHIN 29N112W TO 30N113W TO 29N114W TO 27N112W TO 28N111W TO
29N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N112W TO 30N113W TO 29N114W TO
27N112W TO 28N111W TO 29N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N
108.6W AT 15/0300 UTC, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 17 FT.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. THE STORM IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. SIMON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EVEN
SLOWER OR POSSIBLY STALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER, A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THEN CONTINUE A
WEAKENING TREND. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 100.8W AT 15/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 22 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 96W AND 106W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY FRIDAY. BEYOND 60 H, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM
SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THESE AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TRUDY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS COLIMA AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE,
TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN GUERRERO AND MICHOACáN. THIS
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS
NEAR 19.1N 108.6W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 4 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.0N
108.5W THU MORNING, 19.1N 108.6W THU EVENING, 19.7N 109.1W FRI
MORNING, 20.8N 110.3W FRI EVENING, 21.7N 111.2W SAT MORNING, AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 22.8N 112.3W SAT EVENING.
SIMON WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24.6N 113.6W
LATE SUN. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS NEAR 12.4N 100.8W AT 8 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994
MB. TRUDY WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.9N 101.3W THU
MORNING, MOVE TO 13.6N 101.8W THU EVENING, 14.5N 102.1W FRI
MORNING, 15.3N 102.5W FRI EVENING, 16.4N 103.2W SAT MORNING, AND
17.6N 104.3W SAT EVENING. TRUDY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.7N 106.4W LATE SUN. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THU. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
AREA.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 14sec
TONITE - SW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.9 ft @ 19sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - ESE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.1 ft @ 18sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.4 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NNW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.5 ft @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - W 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 14sec