Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
July 16, 2026, 9:14 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.4N 115.2W 997 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL
16 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N110W TO
20N115W TO 20N118W TO 16N119W TO 14N117W TO 12N111W TO 18N110W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. WITHIN 10N112W TO 13N114W
TO 10N120W TO 10N130W TO 06N131W TO 04N124W TO 10N112W S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.2N 118.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 130 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N114W TO 22N120W TO 16N123W TO 10N121W TO
11N115W TO 20N114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N111W TO 23N115W TO 21N123W TO 11N124W
TO 07N120W TO 08N114W TO 19N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 18.1N 121.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SW QUADRANT AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND
240 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
23N117W TO 24N126W TO 18N128W TO 14N122W TO 16N117W TO 23N117W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
22N114W TO 26N124W TO 22N130W TO 10N124W TO 09N120W TO 13N114W TO
22N114W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ARE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS NEAR AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS ARE 8 TO 14 FT. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION PER A RECENT ASCAT-C
SCATTEROMETER PASS, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD RIDGE
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE A NW TO SE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE NW TO N WINDS AND 3 TO
7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF
1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS PRESENT
OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER 24.3N 127.1W EARLY MON. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO ELIDA. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE OUT OF THE SW TO W THROUGH GAPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST FRI, LOCALLY STRONG IN THE
NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 539 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM OVER 24.3N 127.1W EARLY MON. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO ELIDA. LOOKING AHEAD,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AND AROUND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS MAY BUILD TO ROUGH IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL MIXED WITH DISTANT
SWELLS FROM ELIDA SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 100W BY THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SPREADING NORTH-NORTHWESTARD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
FRIDAY - Not available yet
FRIDAY NIGHT - Not available yet
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - Not available yet
SUNDAY - Not available yet
MONDAY - Not available yet
TUESDAY - Not available yet
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet