Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 7, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 21.2N 122.3W 979 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 07
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N119W TO 24N122W TO
24N123W TO 20N124W TO 18N121W TO 21N118W TO 23N119W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 6.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N118W TO
27N129W TO 18N129W TO 14N124W TO 15N116W TO 18N115W TO 26N118W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.1N 124.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND
70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE... 120
NM SE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 25N122W TO 26N125W TO 23N127W TO 21N126W TO
20N123W TO 21N121W TO 25N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 6.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N119W TO 28N124W TO 28N130W TO
22N132W TO 17N127W TO 17N121W TO 24N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 23.0N 124.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM IN NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM
IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N123W TO
26N125W TO 26N130W TO 22N129W TO 20N126W TO 21N124W TO 24N123W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
25N122W TO 30N126W TO 30N133W TO 24N135W TO 20N132W TO 18N123W TO
25N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 15.5N 101.6W 1004 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
07 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. WITHIN
16N98W TO 16N101W TO 16N102W TO 14N102W TO 14N99W TO 15N98W TO
16N98W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 16.3N 104.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M.. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 18N103W
TO 17N104W TO 14N105W TO 13N104W TO 14N102W TO 17N100W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.6N 104.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.0N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND SE
QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
17N101W TO 19N104W TO 17N109W TO 12N108W TO 10N105W TO 12N100W
TO 17N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E, THE OFFSHORE ZONES WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ARE STILL BEING IMPACTED BY LARGE W TO SW
SWELL PRODUCED BY HURRICANE RACHEL. THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST
WATERS HAS WINDS MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 4-7 FT OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS AND 1-2 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 21.7N 123.2W THU
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.1N 124.3W THU
AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.0W FRI MORNING, 23.0N 124.4W FRI AFTERNOON,
24.1N 122.6W SAT MORNING, AND 26.4N 120.0W SAT AFTERNOON. RACHEL
SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON
SAT AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY SUN JUST SOUTH OF THE
CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE INLAND TO NEAR 33.0N 115.5W SUN
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM SIMON SIMON WILL SLOWLY BE TRAVERSING
AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 15.9N 102.7W THU MORNING,
16.3N 104.0W THU AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.6N
104.8W FRI MORNING, 17.0N 105.1W FRI AFTERNOON, 17.8N 105.2W SAT
MORNING, AND 18.9N 105.3W SAT AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES CABO
CORRIENTES. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
THE 21.2N 105.6W SUN AFTERNOON AS IT ENTERS THE APPROACH TO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 122.3W AT 07/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 35 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N AND BETWEEN 120W-123W. A
GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. RACHEL IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE
MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 21.7N 123.2W THU
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.1N 124.3W THU
AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.0W FRI MORNING, 23.0N 124.4W FRI AFTERNOON,
24.1N 122.6W SAT MORNING, AND 26.4N 120.0W SAT AFTERNOON. RACHEL
SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON
SAT AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL. ADDITIONALLY, THE LARGE SW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 4-5, Seas SW 0.5-3 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 3-4, Seas WSW 0-3 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - E 2-2, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 20sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
FRIDAY - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas S 0-8.4 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - S 26-33, Seas SSW 0-11.4 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SSW 14-17, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 17sec