Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 4, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.1N 114.3W 965 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 04 MOVING
W OR 270 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM NE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM
S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN
110W AND 117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.3N 116.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS
TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 25N
BETWEEN 110W AND 121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 119.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN
114W AND 124W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL, PREVAIL OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED
BY RACHEL ARE STILL IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS
ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.2N 115.2W MON
MORNING, 20.3N 116.6W MON AFTERNOON, 20.4N 118.2W TUE MORNING,
20.6N 119.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 20.9N 121.1W WED MORNING, AND 21.4N
122.7W WED AFTERNOON. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
22.3N 125.5W THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE NEAR
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MON AS RACHEL CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THEREAFTER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 114.3W AT 04/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEGINNING ON MONDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 6-8, Seas WSW 0-4.7 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - NE 8-10, Seas WSW 0-4.4 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY - NE 8-10, Seas WSW 0-4.4 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY NIGHT - W 3-4, Seas WSW 0-3.5 ft @ 10sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TUESDAY - WNW 4-5, Seas WSW 0-3 ft @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-2.8 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - WSW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 17sec