Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
July 17, 2026, 9:00 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 16.1N 120.2W 994 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL
17 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N116W TO 21N119W TO 18N124W TO
11N122W TO 11N117W TO 16N115W TO 21N116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N113W TO 22N118W TO
18N124W TO 10N124W TO 08N118W TO 11N113W TO 20N113W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.7N 121.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 17.9N 122.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM W SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 140 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND
180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N116W
TO 24N121W TO 22N127W TO 16N126W TO 14N122W TO 15N117W TO
20N116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 24N117W TO 26N125W TO 23N130W TO 17N128W TO 09N120W TO
15N113W TO 24N117W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 21.0N 125.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 300 NM N SEMICIRCLE...AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N118W TO 27N122W TO 27N129W TO
21N133W TO 17N126W TO 20N119W TO 24N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 27N119W TO 28N125W TO
23N137W TO 14N127W TO 14N121W TO 18N117W TO 27N119W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS NEAR THE
CLARION ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W, WITH
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC PER RECENT ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER DATA, DUE TO A
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL GAP WIND FLOW, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE AND TO THE EAST OF ELIDA RESULTING IN
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ALSO AWAY FROM
ELIDA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WITH SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WELL OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 104W DISCUSSED
ABOVE, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
16.7N 121.4W THIS AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TO 17.9N 122.8W SAT MORNING. OUTER ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT. AS ELIDA MOVES
TOWARD THE NW, THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN LEADING
TO MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS GENERATING BY
ELIDA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH SUN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER FORECAST WATERS. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT
TIMES. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
16.1N 120.2W AT 17/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 19
TO 20 FT, OR 6.0 M. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS AIDED IN THE
ASSOCIATED SEA RADII ANALYSIS. DRY AIR HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE.
A BAND OF CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ELIDA, WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 180 NM AND 570 NM IN
THE NE QUADRANT, ALSO ENHANCED BY THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY
SUN. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND
ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 715 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 104W
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 715 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103.5W
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
SATURDAY - Not available yet
SATURDAY NIGHT - Not available yet
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - Not available yet
MONDAY - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.3-4.8 ft @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?
THURSDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?