Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 9, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
Questions/Comments visit https://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.2N 104.7W 966 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 09 MOVING
NW OR 325 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
13N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.5N 105.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 101 AND 108W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N
TO 22N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON INLAND NEAR 20.0N 105.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 105W AND 107W WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 19N TO 21N E OF 106W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 23.3N 124.0W 995 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 09
MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM
W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
122W AND 128W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 121W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 26.7N 119.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 117W AND
128W...AND N OF 19N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL RACHEL WELL N OF AREA NEAR 36.4N
115.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 20 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 12N
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL. N OF A LINE FROM 28N120W TO 22N131W TO 24N140W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 30.9N 117.2W. OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
2.5 M.
.42 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL N OF AREA. OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA N OF 28N S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M N OF 30N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WELL N OF AREA. OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 104.9W SAT
MORNING, 17.5N 105.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 18.6N 105.1W SUN MORNING,
INLAND TO 20.0N 105.3W SUN AFTERNOON, 21.4N 105.5W MON MORNING,
AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.8N 105.8W
MON AFTERNOON. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING INLAND NEAR 24.6N 106.4W TUE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 122.4W SAT MORNING, 26.7N 119.4W SAT
AFTERNOON, 30.9N 117.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 36.4N 115.0W SUN
AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 122.4W
SAT MORNING, 26.7N 119.4W SAT AFTERNOON, 30.9N 117.2W SUN MORNING,
INLAND TO 36.4N 115.0W SUN AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS
ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD NW,
SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON WHILE DISSIPATING. LARGE
SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND
WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 124.0W AT 09/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST
AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
ON SUNDAY. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WNW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4 ft @ 19sec
TONITE - S 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.4 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - E 6-8, Seas S 0-5.6 ft @ 12sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SE 8-10, Seas S 0-6.3 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas S 0-6.5 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - SSE 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.8 ft @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.2 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-3.4 ft @ 14sec