Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 2, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.3N 110.8W 959 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 02 MOVING
W OR 265 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
15N TO 23N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 M
FT. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N
BETWEEN 102W AND 116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.6N 112.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 110 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 240 NM N AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 M. FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W SW TO W WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 102W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.0N 113.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 210 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 109W AND 118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 4 M. FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W SW TO W WINDS
20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 3.5 M IN W SWELL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 104W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3
M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS,
ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 19.3N 111.4W
THIS EVENING, 19.6N 112.1W SAT MORNING, 19.8N 112.9W SAT EVENING,
20.0N 113.9W SUN MORNING, 20.2N 115.0W SUN EVENING, AND 20.3N
116.3W MON MORNING. RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 20.8N 119.5W EARLY TUE. SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, ON SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN WINDS
AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 110.8W AT 02/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER, RACHEL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RACHEL IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. THE WEATHER STATION
ON THIS ISLAND RECENTLY MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT (92
KM/H) WITH A GUST TO 68 KT (127 KM/H). SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - S 12-15, Seas SW 0-7.2 ft @ 12sec
TONITE - S 10-12, Seas WSW 0-7.3 ft @ 12sec
SATURDAY - S 10-12, Seas WSW 0-7.3 ft @ 12sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - ESE 13-16, Seas WSW 0-5.4 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - ESE 13-16, Seas WSW 0-5.4 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas WSW 0-4.6 ft @ 12sec
TUESDAY - NW 12-15, Seas WSW 2.5-4.7 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 13-16, Seas SSW 1.5-3.7 ft @ 17sec
THURSDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SW 2.1-4.1 ft @ 17sec