Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
September 29, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 26.2N 111.9W 978 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 29
MOVING NE OR 040 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT
GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...50 NM NW QUADRANT AND 80 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...0 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N111W TO 26N112W TO 26N118W TO 24N117W TO
22N115W TO 23N112W TO 24N111W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 30N116W TO 25N116W TO 30N121W TO 22N119W TO 18N114W TO
22N110W TO 30N116W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY...WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO INLAND SONORA NEAR 28.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 26N109W TO 27N110W TO 26N111W TO 25N110W TO
26N109W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M. OVER WATERS W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 28N114W TO 30N116W TO 29N118W TO
27N117W TO 26N115W TO 26N114W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO WEAKENING INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 31.7N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 14.7N 104.3W 992 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP
29 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT
GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM SEMICIRCLE
...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N99W TO 18N104W
TO 14N105W TO 11N105W TO 11N102W TO 12N98W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 14N97W TO
18N153W TO 14N107W TO 11N154W TO 09N100W TO 10N97W TO 14N97W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 17.1N 106.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 140 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...130 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 210 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO 19N105W TO 18N107W TO 15N109W TO
10N107W TO 12N102W TO 17N101W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 16N98W TO 20N108W TO 15N110W TO 10N108W TO 09N101W TO
12N100W TO 11N99W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.3N 109.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 140 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150
NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
21N108W TO 18N111W TO 14N108W TO 09N111W TO 10N110W TO 12N105W TO
14N104W TO 21N108W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N99W TO
19N104W TO 24N109W TO 23N114W TO 16N115W TO 13N110W TO 09N115W TO
10N102W TO 12N99W TO 15NB99W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO INLAND SONORA NEAR 28.4N
110.1W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 26N109W TO 27N110W TO 26N111W TO 25N110W TO
26N109W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3 M. OVER WATERS W
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 28N114W TO 30N116W TO 29N118W TO
27N117W TO 26N115W TO 26N114W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 2.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO WEAKENING INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 31.7N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM POLO WEAKENING INLAND OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 31.7N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ROUGH
SEAS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.2N 111.9W, OR ABOUT 70 NM
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, MEXICO AT 29/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
TO NEAR 27 FT (8 M). POLO MADE LANDFALL AROUND 06Z ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, JUST SOUTH OF THE SMALL TOWN OF
LAS BARRANCAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A
SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATING OF ITS CURRENT MOTION THIS MORNING. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SONORA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME SLIGHT
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, BUT POLO IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUE WHEN POLO
MOVES WELL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. POLO IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 104.3W, OR ABOUT
230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS, MEXICO AT 29/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO NEAR 20 FT (7 M). SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DEEP OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE WITHIN 210
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS PREDICTED TO MOVE PARALLEL
TO, BUT STAY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACáN AND COLIMA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP3.SHTML?RAINQPF SWELLS
GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 28.4N 110.1W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND
AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 31.7N 106.8W LATE
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS
NEAR 14.7N 104.3W, OR ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO
CARDENAS, MEXICO AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO NEAR
15.7N 105.4W THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.1N
106.8W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80
KT, MOVE TO NEAR 18.4N 108.1W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 19.3N 109.1W LATE
WED NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, MOVE
TO NEAR 19.8N 109.7W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
85 KT GUSTS 105 KT AND TO NEAR 20.2N 110.3W LATE THU NIGHT.
RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NORTHEAST
OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE FRI NIGHT, AND MEANDER
BETWEEN THOSE AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
LATE SAT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS NEAR 14.7N 104.3W, OR
ABOUT 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS, MEXICO AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 992 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO NEAR 15.7N 105.4W THIS
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.1N 106.8W LATE
TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT, MOVE TO
NEAR 18.4N 108.1W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75
KT GUSTS 90 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 19.3N 109.1W LATE WED NIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 19.8N
109.7W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105
KT AND TO NEAR 20.2N 110.3W LATE THU NIGHT. RACHEL WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NORTHEAST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS BY LATE FRI NIGHT, AND MEANDER BETWEEN THOSE ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE SAT.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-4.5 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - N 6-7, Seas S 0-4.7 ft @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 8-10, Seas S 0-8.9 ft @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-10.7 ft @ 14sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
THURSDAY - S 8-10, Seas SSW 0-10.4 ft @ 13sec
FRIDAY - S 17-21, Seas SW 0-10 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY - S 16-20, Seas SW 0-10.2 ft @ 14sec
SUNDAY - S 16-20, Seas SW 0-9.7 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - S 23-29, Seas WSW 0-4.4 ft @ 12sec