Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 28, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 18.6N 108.6W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
28 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE
...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SE QUADRANT AND 15 NM SW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N106W TO 20N107W
TO 20N109W TO 17N110W TO 16N108W TO 17N106W TO 19N106W...
INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 20N106W TO 21N108W TO 19N111W TO
17N111W TO 16N107W TO 17N106W TO 20N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 21.6N 108.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE...AND 0
NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N107W TO
23N108W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO 20N107W TO 21N106W TO 23N107W
...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 22N106W TO 23N107W TO 22N110W
TO 21N110W TO 19N108W TO 20N106W TO 22N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 23.1N
108.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL VANCE INLAND NEAR 25.2N 107.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS TO ROUGH. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE,
OUTSIDE OF VANCE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH MODERATE SEAS, OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 108.6W AT 28/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTH AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12-13 FT OR 4 M. VANCE
REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
NE TO E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF VANCE
AND 0 NM ELSEWHERE. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 H, FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING. VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW ON THU AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH VANCE WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SINALOA, WESTERN DURANGO, AND NORTHWESTERN NAYARIT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY
VANCE WILL AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN, WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO, AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST VANCE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM VANCE WILL MOVE TO 20.0N 108.7W
THIS AFTERNOON, 21.6N 108.3W THU MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW NEAR 23.1N 108.0W THU AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 25.2N 107.1W FRI
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH EARLY
FRI, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN FRESH TO
STRONG THEREAFTER. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WATERS LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - ENE 11-14, Seas S 0-4.8 ft @ 9sec
TONITE - ESE 10-13, Seas S 1.4-5.4 ft @ 8sec
THURSDAY - S 17-21, Seas SSW 0-4.3 ft @ 7sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - S 11-14, Seas SSW 0-2.5 ft @ 5sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
FRIDAY - S 11-14, Seas SSW 0-2.5 ft @ 5sec
SATURDAY - ENE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-2.7 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.2-3.7 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.4-3.7 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 2.3-3.7 ft @ 14sec