Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
August 28, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 11.9N 112.7W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
28 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120
NM SW QUADRANT AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N109W TO 17N111W TO 15N115W TO 09N117W TO 06N115W TO
07N112W TO 13N109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 10N104W TO 17N109W TO 08N110W TO 04N115W TO
03S111W TO 00N106W TO 10N104W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0
M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 14.3N 115.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM NW
AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 6 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
16N110W TO 19N117W TO 13N119W TO 09N122W TO 08N115W TO 11N111W TO
16N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 15N106W TO 18N109W TO 20N115W TO 06N119W TO 05N115W TO
07N109W TO 15N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.0N 118.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 140 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240
NM NW AND 270 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 18N113W TO 22N113W TO 21N123W TO 16N125W TO 10N123W TO
11N118W TO 18N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N106W TO 18N109W TO 20N115W TO 06N119W
TO 05N115W TO 07N109W TO 15N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 11.4N 133.5W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
28 MOVING ENE OR 070 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM NE
QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 10N130WTO 13N132W TO 13N134W TO
07N139W TO 07N133W TO 10N130W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5
M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.3N 133.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. WITHIN WITHIN 14N131W TO 08N137W TO 07N135W TO
08N129W TO 10N128W TO 14N131W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5
M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.7N 135.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS TO 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N134W TO 15N138W TO 12N139W TO 11N137W TO
11N135W TO 13N134W TO 14N134W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M.
FOR THE FORECAST, KARINA WILL MOVE TO 12.9N 114.1W FRI MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.3N 115.5W FRI EVENING, AND TO
15.7N 117.2W BY SAT MORNING, SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND. KARINA
WILL MOVE TO 17.0N 118.8W SAT EVENING, 17.8N 120.5W SUN MORNING,
AND 18.3N 122.3W SUN EVENING. KARINA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW TO 18.8N 125.4W BY LATE
MON. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS THERE AT TIMES, THEN PULSING TO MODERATE TO FRESH
THEREAFTER. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY MOVE
UP THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BOTH FRI AND SAT
NIGHTS. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FORM THIS WEEKEND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT, POSSIBLY BRINING INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG A SIMILAR PATH TO KARINA.
TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 112.7W AT 28/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 15 FT (4.5 M).
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND 240 NM IN THE NW
AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, REACHING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO
CLARION ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED, AND KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER
THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM KARINA WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
KARINA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - W 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 17sec
TONITE - N 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 16sec
SATURDAY - N 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 16sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - ESE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - SE 14-17, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 15sec
MONDAY - W 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.9 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - WSW 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.3 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - E 10-13, Seas SW 1.2-3.7 ft @ 11sec