Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
September 21, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.4N 103.4W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 21
MOVING E OR 090 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM W SEMICIRCLE...50
NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N102W TO 18N104W TO 16N107W TO 14N107W
TO 12N105W TO 13N103W TO 15N102W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.2N 102.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.1N 102.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 120 N W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
15N100W TO 18N102W TO 15N106W TO 12N104W TO 13N101W TO 15N100W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.0N 102.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
120 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N98W TO 19N104W TO 17N106W TO 13N107W TO 08N99W
TO 10N98W TO 14N98W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 13.9N 129.3W 1003 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
21 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 0 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...45 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N124W TO 18N131W TO
15N135W TO 13N131W TO 09N130W TO 13N124W TO 15N125W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.2N 129.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT
AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N125W
TO 21N131W TO 19N136W TO 15N136W TO 11N130W TO 15N124W TO 18N125W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 15.6N 127.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM
NE SE AND NW QUADRANTS AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N126W TO 19N130W TO 15N132W TO 10N130W TO 13N125W
TO 18N126W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 16N124W TO 22N135W TO 22N135W TO 15N137W TO 10N130W TO 16N124W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 N IN MIXED SWELL.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS NEAR 15.4N 103.4W, OR ABOUT 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 21/1500 UTC, MOVING EAST AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM POLO,
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 129.3W, OR ABOUT
1230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AT 21/1500 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO NEAR SEAS ARE PEAKING
NEAR 17 FT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ODALYS HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 126W AND 135W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. AN EASTWARD TURN IS FORECAST ON TUE,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK,
AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND ODALYS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MID-WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ODALYS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM POLO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.3N 102.8W THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 86 KT GUSTS 105 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 15.1N 102.3W TUE MORNING,
TO NEAR 15.4N 102.3W TUE EVENING, 16.0N 102.8W TO NEAR WED
MORNING, TO NEAR 16.8N 103.6W WED EVENING, AND TO NEAR 17.6N
104.8W THU MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 18.6N 107.8W EARLY ON FRI OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO DETERIORATE DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF POLO.
TROPICAL STORM POLO IS NEAR 15.4N 103.4W, OR ABOUT 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO AT 21/1500 UTC, MOVING EAST AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
TROPICAL STORM ODALYS IS NEAR 13.9N 129.3W, OR ABOUT 1230 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 21/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WNW 8-10, Seas S 1-1.8 ft @ 8sec
TONITE - N 4-5, Seas S 0-2 ft @ 8sec
TUESDAY - ENE 9-11, Seas S 0-2 ft @ 8sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SE 4-5, Seas S 0-1.9 ft @ 8sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - SSW 6-7, Seas S 0-1.9 ft @ 8sec
THURSDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SW 0.9-2.7 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - W 7-9, Seas SW 0-5 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY - WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7.4 ft @ 13sec
SUNDAY - S 14-18, Seas SSW 0-7.8 ft @ 13sec