Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
August 15, 2026, 2:10 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS WAS DETECTED BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
4 TO 6 FT OVER THE REMAINING PACIFIC WATERS, AND 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 1 6.1N 134.9W, OR
ABOUT 1470 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 10 FT OR 3 M.
SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON HERNAN AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM AS A SWIRL OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HERNAN IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HERNAN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS, WITH SPEEDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
TUE, WITH WINDS REACHING STRONG SPEEDS NEAR AND NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA EAST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER CALM UNTIL AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
DATA NOTE - Extended sea states: Open-Meteo NCEP GFS-Wave.
TODAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 16sec
TONITE - NNE 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 15sec
SUNDAY - W 8-10, Seas SSW 1.5-3.5 ft @ 14sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - NNW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.5 ft @ 14sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
MONDAY - SSW 18-23, Seas SSW 3-4.4 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.5 ft @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 1.2-2.6 ft @ 13sec
FRIDAY - S 15-19, Seas SSW 0.9-2.4 ft @ 15sec