Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 10, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.6N 104.8W 932 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 10 MOVING
N OR 360 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE...70 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 101 AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.4N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W WITH SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
103W AND 107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON INLAND NEAR 21.9N 105.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN
2.5 M.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 27.0N 118.3W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 10
MOVING NNE OR 025 DEG AT 26 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS
65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...120 NM
SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM
N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 127W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL RACHEL NEAR 36.3N 114.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 111W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 3.0 M N OF 30N.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M N OF 30N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 104.9W SUN
MORNING, 19.4N 105.1W SUN AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 20.8N 105.2W MON
MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.9N
105.2W MON AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.8N 105.1W TUE MORNING, AND DISSIPATE TUE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 30.4N 116.3W SUN MORNING,
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 36.3N 114.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUN AS
RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GUSTY WINDS TO MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.0N 118.3W AT 10/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 26 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NE OF CENTER FROM 28N TO 31N E OF 120W. A NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ESPECIALLY
AFTER RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RACHEL IS LIKELY
TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY MORNING. RACHEL WILL
BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL,
WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL
FLOODING AND EROSION ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGHEST WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER
LEVELS THAT ARE ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.
MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES,
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO REACH FROM
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N125W ON MON WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS S
OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 17sec
TONITE - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - SSE 10-13, Seas SSW 2.1-4.6 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
MONDAY - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
TUESDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - N 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.5 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 1.9-3.6 ft @ 14sec