Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 5, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.3N 117.1W 973 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 05
MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS
100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 110 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...240 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N115W
TO 23N119W TO 21N121W TO 18N120W TO 18N115W TO 20N114W TO
23N115W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 23N111W TO 27N116W TO 25N121W TO 19N123W TO 15N121W TO
14N113W TO 23N111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.4N 119.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N117W TO 24N122W TO 19N123W TO
17N120W TO 18N117W TO 20N117W TO 24N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N115W TO 27N123W TO 24N126W TO
18N125W TO 15N121W TO 18N113W TO 24N115W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 21.2N 122.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N119W TO
25N123W TO 23N126W TO 20N125W TO 18N122W TO 20N119W TO 23N119W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 23N116W
TO 27N121W TO 24N129W TO 17N127W TO 14N119W TO 17N116W TO
23N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG WITH SWELL AND POTENTIAL ROUGH
SURF ALONG THE COAST ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS OF RACHEL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN
FOCUS IS INVEST 92E, THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF WESTERN
OAXACA. GENTLE BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN OPEN WATERS AND
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.5N 117.3W THIS EVENING,
20.5N 118.9W TUE MORNING, AND 20.7N 120.2W TUE EVENING. THE
CENTER OF RACHEL WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TO 21.1N 121.7W WED
MORNING, THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 123.1W WED
EVENING, AND MOVE TO 22.0N 124.6W THU MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING, AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TODAY AS RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 117.1W AT 05/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 31 FT (9.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SW AND 120 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED
BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO, AND
INVEST 92E OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-3.7 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - NW 2-3, Seas WSW 0-3.4 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY - NW 9-11, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 8-10, Seas WSW 0-2.9 ft @ 10sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - N 10-12, Seas WSW 0-2.9 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY - SSW 5-6, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.5 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - W 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4 ft @ 17sec
SUNDAY - NE 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 15sec