Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 29, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 21.0N 108.4W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
29 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE
...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N105W TO 23N107W
TO 23N109W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO 20N106W TO
22N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N107W TO 23N110W TO
21N111W TO 19N107W TO 19N105W TO 21N105W TO 24N107W...INCLUDING
NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE NEAR 22.0N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 23.4N
108.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN
24N107W TO 25N109W TO 25N110W TO 24N110W TO 23N110W TO 23N108W TO
24N107W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERY GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
.TROPICAL STORM VANCE NEAR 21.0N 108.4W 1001 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT
29 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE
...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER
WITHIN 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45 NM SE
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N105W TO 23N107W
TO 23N109W TO 21N109W TO 20N108W TO 20N106W TO
22N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N107W TO 23N110W TO
21N111W TO 19N107W TO 19N105W TO 21N105W TO 24N107W...INCLUDING
NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE NEAR 22.0N 108.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW VANCE NEAR 23.4N
108.2W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN
24N107W TO 25N109W TO 25N110W TO 24N110W TO 23N110W TO 23N108W TO
24N107W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERY GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM VANCE BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS NOTED ON RECENTLY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ROUGH
SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
ENTRANCE DUE TO SWELLS FROM VANCE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM VANCE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.0N 108.0W THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AND MOVE TO 23.4N 108.2W FRI MORNING, AND DISSIPATE FRI
AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE TO FRESH
TO STRONG THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WATERS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH NW WINDS
LOOK DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N
108.4W AT 29/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 12-13 FT OR 4.0 M. VANCE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE NE TO E SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED BETWEEN
45 NM AND 420 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT INCLUDING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. A TURN TO THE NORTH, FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VANCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATE TODAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
VANCE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SINALOA, FAR SOUTHWESTERN DURANGO, AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NAYARIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE WILL AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
VANCE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSE 19-24, Seas SSW 0-4.5 ft @ 7sec
TONITE - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-2.9 ft @ 6sec
FRIDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-2.9 ft @ 6sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 3-4, Seas SSW 0-0.8 ft @ 5sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SW 0.7-0.9 ft @ 4sec
SUNDAY - NW 9-11, Seas NW 0.9-1 ft @ 2sec
MONDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 1-1.1 ft @ 7sec
TUESDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 1-1.1 ft @ 7sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 2.2-3.5 ft @ 14sec