Gap Winds Forecast
July 15, 2026, 9:01 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Gap Winds Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 14.9N 111.8W 1003 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL
15 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE
QUADRANT...40 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N108W TO
20N112W TO 16N113W TO 14N111W TO 14N108W TO 16N107W TO 19N108W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 15.1N 116.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...80 NM SE QUADRANT...30 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NE SEMICIRCLE...AND 90 NM SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N112W TO 20N117W TO 16N120W TO 11N113W TO
14N111W TO 19N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ELIDA NEAR 16.2N 119.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 270 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N113W TO 22N115W TO 21N122W TO 16N123W TO
10N120W TO 10N116W TO 18N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N113W TO 23N118W TO 20N124W TO
08N124W TO 10N114W TO 14N112W TO 21N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N74W TO 10N85W TO 08N87W. ITCZ FROM 08N87W
TO 06N91W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N94W TO 13N108W...THEN RESUMES
FROM 12N114W TO 07N123W TO 12N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...WITHIN 390 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 106W AND
135W...AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 119W AND 131W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...WITHIN
270 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 107W...AND FROM 05N TO 13N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91.5W, NORTH OF 03N TO ACROSS PORTIONS
OF GUATEMALA AND FAR SE MEXICO IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 138W FROM 02N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AT 13N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 10N85W TO 08N87W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 06N91W, THEN RESUMES WEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N94W TO 13N108W, THEN RESUMES SW OF
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FROM 12N114W TO 07N123W
TO 12N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W, FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W, WITHIN 390 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
106W AND 135W, AND WITHIN 210 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W
AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N
BETWEEN 90W AND 94W, WITHIN 270 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W
AND 107W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
138W, WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AT
13N, WITHIN ABOUT 420 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
AND ELIDA BETWEEN 107W AND 127W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 13N TO THE EAST OF 102W WITH 6 TO 7 FT SEAS.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A MIX OF SWELLS ELSEWHERE.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 15.0N 113.8W
THIS AFTERNOON, 15.1N 116.1W THU MORNING, 15.5N 118.1W THU
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.2N 119.8W FRI
MORNING, 17.1N 121.3W FRI AFTERNOON, AND 18.2N 122.7W SAT
MORNING. ELIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
20.9N 125.4W EARLY SUN. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 138W WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE SHIFTS WEST OF 140W BY THU. NE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDGING
FARTHER NORTH.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SOUTH
OF 20N AND WEST 107W TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ELIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 6 TO
13 FT. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD
RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO
THE NW OF ELIDA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, AND
LIGHT BREEZES WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT,
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED.
.WITHIN 12N86W TO 11N88W TO 11N91W TO 10N90W TO 09N88W TO 10N86W
TO 12N86W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO NEAR 92W PER RECENT OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 09N TO
OFFSHORE NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF
PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS, LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND NEAR THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT,
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 22-28, Seas SSW 3.2-4.7 ft @ 14sec
TONITE - ENE 18-22, Seas SW 2.1-4 ft @ 16sec
THURSDAY - ENE 22-28, Seas SW 2.9-4.5 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - ENE 22-27, Seas SW 3.5-4.8 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
FRIDAY - ENE 22-28, Seas SSW 3.1-4.6 ft @ 14sec
SATURDAY - ENE 22-27, Seas SSW 3.1-4.7 ft @ 14sec
SUNDAY - ENE 20-25, Seas SSW 2-4.5 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - ENE 21-26, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?
TUESDAY - ENE 20-25, Seas N/A ?-? ft @ ?