Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
October 9, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - N 15-19, Seas SSE 4.4-9 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - N 15-19, Seas SSE 4.4-9 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - N 14-18, Seas S 4.7-8.7 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 14-18, Seas S 4.7-8.7 feet @ 11sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - SE 18-23, Seas SSW 0-11.3 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - SE 18-23, Seas SSW 0-11.3 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - S 14-18, Seas SW 0-9.4 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 14-18, Seas SW 0-9.4 feet @ 10sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - WNW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-8 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-8 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - NW 14-18, Seas W 0-7.1 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 14-18, Seas W 0-7.1 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 N 14-17, Seas WNW 4.6-6 feet @ 11sec, Middle 2/3 NW 13-16, Seas SE 16-16.5 feet @ 11sec, Southern 1/3 ESE 24-30, Seas S 16-16.4 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 15-19, Seas SE 5.7-7.3 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 19-24, Seas SW 9.5-10.7 feet @ 8sec, Southern 1/3 SSW 21-26, Seas WSW 11.6-12 feet @ 10sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 14-18, Seas NW 7.4-8.4 feet @ 9sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-8 feet @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 SW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-6.6 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT IN THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, INCLUDING THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND THE WATERS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DUE TO BOTH PRISCILLA AND OCTAVE. FARTHER
SOUTH, ROUGHLY BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND CABO CORRIENTES, THERE IS A
LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. OUTSIDE THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS DOMINATE THE N AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 114.7W AT 09/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 23 FT. INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO LOSE
DEEP CONVECTION, AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE. PRISCILLA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. AS
PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL
STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST
COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY
PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
AT 09/1500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR
16.2N 100.8W, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 10 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 18.5N
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN BY EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THEN BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. OUTER BANDS FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
SATURDAY. ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN GUERRERO AND
MICHOACáN. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND REACH SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - S 10-12, Seas SSW 0-7.7 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - S 10-12, Seas SSW 0-7.7 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7.2 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7.2 feet @ 11sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.4 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.4 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - S 16-20, Seas SSE 9.4-9.9 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 16-20, Seas SSE 9.4-9.9 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half W 6-8, Seas SW 1.7-4 feet @ 7sec, Southern Half SSE 23-29, Seas SSE 14.8-14.9 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half N 12-15, Seas S 9.6-9.9 feet @ 10sec, Southern Half S 17-21, Seas SW 9.4-9.9 feet @ 10sec
MONDAY - Northern Half W 9-11, Seas WSW 0-6.1 feet @ 7sec, Southern Half SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half W 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half W 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half N 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half WSW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.4 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.4 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - S 16-20, Seas SSE 9.4-9.9 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 16-20, Seas SSE 9.4-9.9 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - SSE 23-29, Seas SSE 14.8-14.9 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - S 17-21, Seas SW 9.4-9.9 feet @ 10sec
MONDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - W 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.5-5.3 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - NNW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.5-5.3 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - S 22-27, Seas SSW 0-7.1 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 22-27, Seas SSW 0-7.1 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - S 22-28, Seas SW 8-8.3 feet @ 10sec
SUNDAY - SW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.4 feet @ 11sec
MONDAY - NW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNW 13-16, Seas W 0-7.2 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - NNW 13-16, Seas W 0-7.2 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - SSE 30-37, Seas S 8.5-9.8 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSE 30-37, Seas S 8.5-9.8 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SATURDAY - SE 25-31, Seas S 8.8-9.5 feet @ 10sec
SUNDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas W 0-8.6 feet @ 11sec
MONDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.6 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - N 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - ESE 29-36, Seas SSE 8.1-9.8 feet @ 8sec
TONITE - ESE 29-36, Seas SSE 8.1-9.8 feet @ 8sec
FRIDAY - SSE 20-25, Seas SW 0-10.1 feet @ 9sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSE 20-25, Seas SW 0-10.1 feet @ 9sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SATURDAY - W 9-11, Seas SW 0-7 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-6.2 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-6.1 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - ESE 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - W 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N95W TO
14N94W TO 15N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N93W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO
13N95W TO 13N93W TO 14N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - SE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NNW 13-16, Seas SW 0-5.4 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 13-16, Seas SW 0-5.4 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SATURDAY - NW 15-19, Seas SW 0-6 feet @ 10sec
SUNDAY - NNW 16-20, Seas SW 0-5.4 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - ESE 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - ESE 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - SE 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N85W TO 16N98W...THEN RESUMES SW OF
PRISCILLA NEAR 15N117W TO 10N134W. ITCZ FROM 10N134W TO BEYOND
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 16N98W, THEN RESUMES SW
OF PRISCILLA NEAR 15N117W TO 10N134W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N134W TO BEYOND 09N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ROUGH SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
SWELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A NEW SET OF NORTHERLY SWELL, BRINGING ROUGH
SEAS IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 T 8 FT ACROSS THESE
WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORECAST
WATERS. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR
22N138W, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER, WINDS OR SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 6-8, Seas WSW 0-4.8 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - ENE 6-8, Seas WSW 0-4.8 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - E 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - E 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - SSW 10-12, Seas SW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - S 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - WSW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - SSW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (2.3 days old)
Updated 07 Oct 2025 11:15:16 GMT (2.3 days old)
EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG PAPUA NEW GUINEA
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/10/07/25280001/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (2.3 days old)
Updated 07 Oct 2025 11:15:13 GMT (2.3 days old)
in the eastern New Guinea Region, PNG
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/10/07/t3rdgt/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.