Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
October 2, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 14-18, Seas NW 4.3-6.8 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NNW 14-18, Seas NW 4.3-6.8 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 16-20, Seas NW 5.4-8.1 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 16-20, Seas NW 5.4-8.1 feet @ 13sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 10-13, Seas W 2.9-5.4 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - NW 10-13, Seas W 2.9-5.4 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NW 11-14, Seas NW 3.5-6.9 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 11-14, Seas NW 3.5-6.9 feet @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.3-4.8 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.3-4.8 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas WNW 0-4.9 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WNW 9-11, Seas WNW 0-4.9 feet @ 14sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 16-20, Seas NW 6.2-8.1 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 11-14, Seas NW 3.7-6.8 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-14, Seas WNW 2.1-5.1 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 12-15, Seas WNW 6.3-7.1 feet @ 16sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 12-15, Seas WNW 0-6.8 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-5.8 feet @ 17sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 12-15, Seas W 0-6.5 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 SE 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 ESE 24-30, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 N 17-21, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 E 25-31, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 SE 20-25, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO IN MIXED S-SW AND W-NW SWELL. SEAS ARE 3
FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 4 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SW MEXICO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION, MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT, LOCALLY STRONG AT
TIMES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO SAT, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AT
TIMES. NEW NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OFFSHORE BAJA CAILFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, OCTAVE WILL MOVE TO 12.8N 119.3W THIS EVENING,
13.3N 120.5W FRI MORNING, 13.8N 121.8W FRI EVENING, 14.4N 123.0W
SAT MORNING, 15.0N 123.8W SAT EVENING, AND STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.3N 124.0W SUN MORNING. OCTAVE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.9N 122.9W EARLY MON.
THE REMNANT LOW OF NARDA WILL DRIFT W-SW AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN,
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED AND
RESIDUAL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THEN. A FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS,
SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING THERE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MAINLY E OF 125W
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF SW
MEXICO. THESE WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MEANWHILE, A NEW SET OF LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE EQUATOR DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.8-2.9 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.8-2.9 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - N 14-18, Seas SSW 0-3.3 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 14-18, Seas SSW 0-3.3 feet @ 12sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - W 5-6, Seas S 0.7-4.2 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - W 5-6, Seas S 0.7-4.2 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY - W 5-6, Seas S 0-4.3 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - W 5-6, Seas S 0-4.3 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half NNW 17-21, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 10sec, Southern Half WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 9sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half N 14-18, Seas SW 0-3.9 feet @ 18sec, Southern Half SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 18sec
MONDAY - Northern Half NNW 12-15, Seas SW 0-3.6 feet @ 14sec, Southern Half S 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - Northern Half N 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half SE 16-20, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half NNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half SSE 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - W 5-6, Seas S 0.7-4.2 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - W 5-6, Seas S 0.7-4.2 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY - W 5-6, Seas S 0-4.3 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - W 5-6, Seas S 0-4.3 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 9sec
SUNDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 18sec
MONDAY - S 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - SE 16-20, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - SSE 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - W 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - W 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY - SW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 9sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 9sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 0.9-3.6 feet @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 18sec
MONDAY - SSW 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - S 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - S 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - S 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - S 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SATURDAY - SSE 12-15, Seas SSW 0-5.9 feet @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-9.9 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - SSE 24-30, Seas SSW 0-15.1 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SE 20-25, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - SSE 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - NNE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.6 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - NNE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.6 feet @ 10sec
FRIDAY - ESE 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - ESE 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.5 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SATURDAY - ESE 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.7 feet @ 19sec
SUNDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SW 0-7.2 feet @ 10sec
MONDAY - ENE 6-8, Seas WSW 0-10.5 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO 14N95W TO 14N93W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N95W TO 14N93W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE NW-N WINDS ARE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. MAINLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, INCLUDING
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO IN MIXED S-SW AND W-NW SWELL. SEAS ARE 3
FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, REACHING 4 FT NEAR THE
ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BEYOND THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE SW MEXICO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION, MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY SAT, LOCALLY STRONG AT
TIMES. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO SAT, LOCALLY STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AT
TIMES. NEW NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE OFFSHORE BAJA CAILFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 10-12, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 10-12, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - N 14-18, Seas SSW 1.9-4.4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 14-18, Seas SSW 1.9-4.4 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SATURDAY - NNW 17-21, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 17sec
SUNDAY - NNW 15-19, Seas SSW 0-5.3 feet @ 17sec
MONDAY - N 6-8, Seas SSW 0-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - N 18-23, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - N 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 11N96W TO 15N106W. IT RESUMES FROM
12N122W TO 10N130W. ITCZ FROM 10N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W...AND FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 88W AND 107W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N96W TO 15N106W. IT
RESUMES FROM 12N122W TO 10N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N130W TO
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W, AND FROM 05N TO 15N
BETWEEN 88W AND 107W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE S-SW
WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SW AND NW SWELLS ACROSS THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR CONVECTION.
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
FOR THE FORECAST, OCTAVE WILL MOVE TO 12.8N 119.3W THIS EVENING,
13.3N 120.5W FRI MORNING, 13.8N 121.8W FRI EVENING, 14.4N 123.0W
SAT MORNING, 15.0N 123.8W SAT EVENING, AND STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.3N 124.0W SUN MORNING. OCTAVE WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 15.9N 122.9W EARLY MON.
THE REMNANT LOW OF NARDA WILL DRIFT W-SW AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN,
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY, WITH ASSOCIATED AND
RESIDUAL WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THEN. A FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN WATERS,
SPREADING EASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS GRADUALLY EXPANDING THERE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, MAINLY E OF 125W
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF SW
MEXICO. THESE WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MEANWHILE, A NEW SET OF LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE EQUATOR DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - NE 5-6, Seas SW 0-3.6 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NE 5-6, Seas SW 0-3.6 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - SE 10-13, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - SE 18-23, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas SW 0-5 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (2.2 days old)
Updated 30 Sep 2025 14:11:05 GMT (2.2 days old)
LEYTE PHILIPPINES
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/09/30/25273001/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (2.2 days old)
Updated 30 Sep 2025 14:11:50 GMT (2.2 days old)
in Leyte, Philippine Islands
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/09/30/t3emvp/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.