Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
November 20, 2024, 9:01 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N94W TO 16N94W TO
16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N94W TO 15N94W TO 15N96W
TO 13N95W TO 14N94W N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N93W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO
13N97W TO 13N93W TO 15N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N93W TO 13N97W TO 11N98W TO 11N95W TO 13N93W N
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N96W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N94W TO
14N97W TO 11N101W TO 09N100W TO 08N98W TO 10N95W TO 14N94W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 12-15, Seas NW 0-6.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NNW 13-16, Seas NW 0-7.4 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas NW 3-7.4 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-13, Seas NW 3.3-6.6 feet @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 9-11, Seas WSW 0-5.5 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - NW 8-10, Seas WNW 0-6.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas NW 0-6 feet @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 6-7, Seas WSW 0-4.3 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-4.2 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - NW 12-15, Seas SW 0-4.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-14, Seas NW 3.4-6.4 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NW 9-11, Seas NW 0-6 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-13, Seas WSW 3-5.3 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas SW 0-3.9 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 Not available yet, Southern 1/3 Not available yet
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS,
ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N124W. THIS PATTERN
SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND AREAS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. A LONG-PERIOD N
TO NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ABOUT 120 NM
OFF THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS 22N. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING OVER NW
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF, AS
CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT ARE NOTED IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH, COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT
LINGER OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN OAXACA AND GUERRERO RELATED TO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY SAT, WITH STRONG GALES AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS LIKELY THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GALES AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL REACH BEYOND 300 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INTO EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS OFF WESTERN OAXACA WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO 20N BY TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE.
ANOTHER LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON THU BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE ON FRI. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - N 6-8, Seas SSW 0-2.5 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-2.4 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - W 8-10, Seas SW 1.1-2.6 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-2.6 feet @ 15sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.5-4.4 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.3-4.4 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 3.3-4.4 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 2.6-4 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half N 10-12, Seas SSW 0-2.7 feet @ 14sec, Southern Half NW 9-11, Seas SSW 2.6-4 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half N 11-14, Seas SSW 0-2.7 feet @ 14sec, Southern Half WNW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern Half N 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half WNW 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - Northern Half N 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half Not available yet, Southern Half Not available yet
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.5-4.4 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 3.3-4.4 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 3.3-4.4 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 2.6-4 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 2.6-4 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - WNW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.6-3 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - N 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.7-3.1 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-2.5 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNE 10-13, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - N 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - N 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SATURDAY - N 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY - N 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NNE 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NE 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SATURDAY - NE 5-6, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - ESE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WSW 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - SW 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 15N94W TO 16N94W TO
16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N94W TO 15N94W TO 15N96W
TO 13N95W TO 14N94W N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N93W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO
13N97W TO 13N93W TO 15N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N93W TO 13N97W TO 11N98W TO 11N95W TO 13N93W N
TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N96W TO
14N94W TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N94W TO
14N97W TO 11N101W TO 09N100W TO 08N98W TO 10N95W TO 14N94W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A GAP WIND EVENT IS DEVELOPING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. DENSER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TOGETHER SUPPORT STRONG N WINDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS QUICKLY FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. STRONG GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU THROUGH THU
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS
EVENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS LIKELY IN THE
AREA OF STRONGEST WIND. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 17 FT THU THROUGH
THU NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL END SAT MORNING WITH STRONG
WINDS ENDING BY EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 12 FT BY
FRI NIGHT AND BELOW 8 FT BY SAT NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE UPCOMING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY SAT, WITH STRONG GALES AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS LIKELY THU AND THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE GALES AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL REACH BEYOND 300 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INTO EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS OFF WESTERN OAXACA WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH, LARGE NW SWELL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO 20N BY TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE.
ANOTHER LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON THU BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE ON FRI. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN GUATEMALA OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL THEN
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI AND SAT. MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST OTHERWISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF ECUADOR BY MON.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - NNW 34-42, Seas NNW 10.7-11.5 feet @ 8sec
TONITE - N 23-29, Seas NNW 11.5-11.8 feet @ 8sec
FRIDAY - N 23-29, Seas NNW 10.6-11 feet @ 8sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 16-20, Seas N 7-7.6 feet @ 6sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SATURDAY - N 16-20, Seas N 7-7.6 feet @ 6sec
SUNDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 2.1-3.9 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - NNW 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 16N94W TO 08N120W. ITCZ FROM 08N120W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W
AND 105W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N94W TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 08N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N124W, AND RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE
NOTED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MOSTLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE, WEST OF 110W. NW SWELL OF 7 TO 10 FT DOMINATES THE
WATERS NORTH OF 20N. POCKETS OF 7 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE MONSOON TROUGH, IN A COMBINATION OF NW AND SW SWELL, ALONG
WITH SHORTER-PERIOD NE SEAS DUE TO TRADE WIND FLOW. FARTHER EAST,
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT LINGER WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO,
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WERE ACTIVE EARLIER BUT HAVE SINCE
DIMINISHED. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BUT SHIFT
SOUTHWARD, ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 25N130W SAT.
THIS WILL MOSTLY BLOCK A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 130W THU AND FRI. THE NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD WHILE DECAYING THROUGH LATE THU,
REINFORCING THE ONGOING SWELL ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO SUN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL COVER THE REGION NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 125W FRI AND SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. LOOKING AHEAD, A
COMPLEX WAVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY SUN OVER THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W IN A MIX OF
NW AND SW SWELL, ALONG WITH A COMPONENT OF SHORTER PERIOD NE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. SW SWELL TO 8
FT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 115W MON AND
TUE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN GUATEMALA OFFSHORE WATERS
EARLY THU THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL THEN
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRI AND SAT. MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL PERSIST OTHERWISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF ECUADOR BY MON.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - NE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - E 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - ENE 17-21, Seas SW 1.9-4.2 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - ENE 18-23, Seas SW 2.5-4.5 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - ENE 20-25, Seas SW 3.1-4.7 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - ENE 19-24, Seas SW 2.2-4 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - ENE 16-20, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - ENE 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Not available yet
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (5.9 days old)
Updated 15 Nov 2024 05:36:32 GMT (5.9 days old)
NEW IRELAND REGION PAPUA NEW GUINEA
https://tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2024/11/15/24320000/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (5.9 days old)
Updated 15 Nov 2024 05:36:57 GMT (5.9 days old)
in the New Ireland region, PNG
https://tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2024/11/15/smz8ji/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.