Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
October 17, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 5-6, Seas WNW 0-5.2 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 5-6, Seas WNW 0-5.2 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas WNW 0-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNW 6-8, Seas WNW 0-5 feet @ 16sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - WNW 8-10, Seas W 0-5.4 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - WNW 8-10, Seas W 0-5.4 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NW 9-11, Seas W 1.5-5.1 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas W 1.5-5.1 feet @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.9-5 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.9-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.6-4.9 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.6-4.9 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas NW 0-6.7 feet @ 16sec, Middle 2/3 NW 10-13, Seas WNW 2.4-6.2 feet @ 17sec, Southern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas WSW 2.2-4.6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas NW 0-5.6 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NW 11-14, Seas WNW 0-6.4 feet @ 17sec, Southern 1/3 NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.2-4.7 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 11-14, Seas NW 0-6.5 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 17-21, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING THROUGH MON. INVEST EP91
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - SSW 5-6, Seas WSW 1.6-3 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - SSW 5-6, Seas WSW 1.6-3 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - W 10-12, Seas SW 1.6-3.1 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - W 10-12, Seas SW 1.6-3.1 feet @ 15sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.9-4 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.9-4 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SUNDAY - Northern Half W 13-16, Seas WSW 2.1-3.3 feet @ 17sec, Southern Half NW 11-14, Seas SSW 2.7-4.3 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern Half N 13-16, Seas SW 0-3.4 feet @ 16sec, Southern Half NW 10-12, Seas SSW 2.8-4.3 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half N 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.4 feet @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half N 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern Half NNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.9-4 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.9-4 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 2.7-4.3 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 2.8-4.3 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.4 feet @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.2-3.4 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.2-3.4 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.5-3.6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.5-3.6 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.6-3.5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.2 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.7-4.4 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 1.7-4.4 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SUNDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SW 0-4.5 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - N 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - N 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - W 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NE 2-3, Seas SSW 0-5.1 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NE 2-3, Seas SSW 0-5.1 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SUNDAY - E 8-10, Seas SSW 3.3-5.4 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - E 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - W 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - WNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - W 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING THROUGH MON. INVEST EP91
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SSE 7-9, Seas SSW 0-6 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - SSE 7-9, Seas SSW 0-6 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - S 7-9, Seas SSW 0-6.5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - S 7-9, Seas SSW 0-6.5 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - S 6-7, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - N 12-15, Seas SSW 0-5.1 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - NNW 18-23, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NNW 19-24, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NNW 18-22, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N99W TO
1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N137W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
N OF 06N AND E OF 102W...AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND
120W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES
(EP91) NEAR 13N99W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N137W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 06N AND E OF
102W, AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT HIGHER SEAS IN THESE
AREAS. THE SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF ECUADOR. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST EP91 WELL OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAILING TO THE NORTH.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N143W. LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 115W. ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN LATEST
ALTIMETER DATA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. OVER THE EASTERN WATERS,
FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 91E. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF 110W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A NEW NW SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH
SEAS NORTH OF 25N TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EP91 NORTH OF 03N AND EAST OF 110W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NW WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING THROUGH MON. INVEST EP91
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SE 9-11, Seas SW 0-5.1 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - SE 9-11, Seas SW 0-5.1 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - SE 9-11, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SE 9-11, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SUNDAY - SE 7-9, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - NE 14-18, Seas SW 0-4.1 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - ENE 16-20, Seas SW 0-3.9 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - ENE 17-21, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NE 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (1.5 days old)
Updated 16 Oct 2025 05:56:41 GMT (1.5 days old)
PAPUA INDONESIA
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/10/16/25289001/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
ZCZC
WEGM42 PHEB 160556
TIBGUM
GUZ001>004-160756-
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
356 PM CHST THU OCT 16 2025
...NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO GUAM/CNMI FROM A DISTANT EARTHQUAKE...
AUDIENCE
--------
EMERGENCY MANAGERS... MEDIA... GENERAL PUBLIC
EVALUATION
----------
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.7 OCCURRED IN
PAPUA, INDONESIA AT 349 PM CHST ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 16 2025.
* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO
GUAM... ROTA... TINIAN OR SAIPAN FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------
* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* NO TSUNAMI IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.7
* ORIGIN TIME 349 PM CHST OCT 16 2025
* COORDINATES 2.3 SOUTH 138.9 EAST
* DEPTH 44 MILES
* LOCATION PAPUA INDONESIA
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.
$$
NNNN
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (0.1 days old)
Updated 17 Oct 2025 15:53:46 GMT (0.1 days old)
55 miles SE of Dutch Harbor, Alaska
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/10/17/t4a99c/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
WEAK53 PAAQ 171553
TIBAK1
Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
753 AM AKDT Fri Oct 17 2025
...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EVALUATION
----------
* There is NO tsunami danger from this earthquake.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment of the earthquake and changes may occur.
* Magnitude 5.0
* Origin Time 0749 AKDT Oct 17 2025
0849 PDT Oct 17 2025
1549 UTC Oct 17 2025
* Coordinates 53.4 North 165.5 West
* Depth 52 miles
* Location 55 miles SE of Dutch Harbor, Alaska
485 miles E of Adak, Alaska
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Further information will be issued by the United States
Geological Survey (earthquake.usgs.gov) or the appropriate
regional seismic network.
* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center
message issued for this event unless additional information
becomes available.
$$