Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America



December 10, 2018, 8:30 pm (UTC: -08:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO
12N97W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45
KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT...BUILDING TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N97W TO 11N98W NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 8.5N BETWEEN
93W AND 103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13N96W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 11N98W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 108W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 02N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
.45 HOUR FORECAST FROM 1.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.45 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N127W TO 24N137W. W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO
10N125W TO 05N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 08N TO 27N W OF
128W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF A
LINE FROM 30N116W TO 12N123W TO 03N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 131W NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO
24N113W TO 13N116W TO 02N127W TO 0N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. W OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO
16N110W TO 0N122W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0230 UTC TUE DEC 11...

.TROUGH 120W FROM 08N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N83W TO 04N91W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. ITCZ THEN EXTENDS ALONG 06N102W TO
08N109W TO 08N118W. ITCZ RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
07N122W AND CONTINUES PAST 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N W OF 124W.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 11-15, Seas WNW 5-9 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - NNW 7-9, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 18sec
TUESDAY - NNW 11-15, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-14, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 3-4, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - WNW 5-6, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WNW 7-10, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WNW 8-12, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - W 4-6, Seas WNW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - WNW 4-5, Seas WNW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - WNW 4-6, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WNW 7-9, Seas WNW 5-9 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-14, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NW 13-18, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NW 12-17, Seas WNW 6-9 feet @ 14sec
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-14, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 N 9-13, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NW 13-18, Seas WNW 5-9 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NNE 7-9, Seas NW 7-11 feet @ 18sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 7-9, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 W 6-8, Seas WNW 4-6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-20, Seas NW 8-13 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 9-12, Seas NW 7-11 feet @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-15, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 8-11, Seas NW 7-12 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NNE 6-9, Seas NW 6-10 feet @ 15sec, Southern 1/3 ENE 12-16, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 15sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A
RIDGE SOUTHEAST TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
PRESENTLY HAVE A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 3 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY THU MORNING AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE OF IDAHO. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRI MORNING.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - NW 13-18, Seas NW 3-5 feet @ 5sec
TONITE - NW 7-10, Seas NW 2-3 feet @ 5sec
TUESDAY - SE 5-8, Seas NW 0-1 feet @ 4sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SW 8-11, Seas S 0-1 feet @ 1sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NNE 3-4, Seas NW 3-5 feet @ 6sec
TONITE - WNW 4-6, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 12sec
TUESDAY - WSW 2-4, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WSW 6-8, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half NW 11-15, Seas WNW 1-2 feet @ 3sec, Southern Half WSW 10-14, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - Northern Half NW 18-24, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half N 11-16, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - Northern Half NW 17-23, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 6sec, Southern Half N 10-14, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half NW 9-12, Seas NW 2-3 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half NNW 8-11, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half ESE 3-4, Seas NW 0-0 feet @ 2sec, Southern Half NNW 8-11, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 11sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNE 3-4, Seas NW 3-5 feet @ 6sec
TONITE - WNW 4-6, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 12sec
TUESDAY - WSW 2-4, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WSW 6-8, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - WSW 10-14, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - N 11-16, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - N 10-14, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - NNW 8-11, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - NNW 8-11, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 11sec


**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WNW 7-10, Seas SSW 1-3 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - N 2-3, Seas SSW 1-3 feet @ 11sec
TUESDAY - NW 9-13, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNE 4-5, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - NW 8-11, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 14sec
THURSDAY - NNW 7-10, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NNE 7-10, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 12sec
SATURDAY - ESE 4-6, Seas SSW 2-3 feet @ 12sec
SUNDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 19sec


**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - WNW 5-7, Seas WNW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - N 4-6, Seas WNW 2-4 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - NNW 8-11, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNE 8-11, Seas WNW 3-6 feet @ 18sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
WEDNESDAY - N 10-14, Seas WSW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
THURSDAY - N 12-16, Seas W 4-7 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNE 10-14, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
SATURDAY - S 6-8, Seas SW 2-4 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - N 11-14, Seas WSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec


**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W 5-7, Seas WNW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 5-7, Seas WNW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - SW 4-6, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 5-7, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
WEDNESDAY - W 6-8, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
THURSDAY - WNW 8-11, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - ESE 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
SATURDAY - E 5-6, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 11sec
SUNDAY - NW 6-9, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 11sec


**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**

.WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W TO
12N97W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45
KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT...BUILDING TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N97W TO 11N98W NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 8.5N BETWEEN
93W AND 103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13N96W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W TO 11N98W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 108W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 02N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. THE LARGE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING.
SEAS IN THE GALE WARNING AREA ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 20 FT BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE, THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE AND BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY WED
EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS E. SWELL FROM THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH
TO 110W AND 02N LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL
MERGE WITH A LARGER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
SPECIFIC MARINE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENT STRONG GALE CONDITIONS. SEE ABOVE
PARAGRAPH FOR MORE DETAILS OVER NEXT 36 HOURS. LONGER TERM A NEW
STRONG GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN LATE FRI MORNING
AND WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE ON SAT EVENING.
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER LARGE AREA OF 8 FT
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXED SWELL WILL STRETCH FROM ABOUT 02N TO
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W AS A RESULT OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL THAT PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO A SMALLER EXTENT
THOSE INDUCED BY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN
EVEN LARGER AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH
WILL COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF AROUND 92W BY
WED.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 29-39, Seas NNW 11-17 feet @ 7sec
TONITE - N 27-36, Seas NNW 10-16 feet @ 8sec
TUESDAY - N 25-35, Seas NNW 9-15 feet @ 7sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - N 24-32, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - N 24-32, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec
THURSDAY - NW 11-15, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - N 28-38, Seas NNW 10-16 feet @ 7sec
SATURDAY - N 27-36, Seas NNW 10-15 feet @ 7sec
SUNDAY - NNW 24-32, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec


**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N83W TO 04N91W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. ITCZ THEN EXTENDS ALONG 06N102W TO
08N109W TO 08N118W. ITCZ RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
07N122W AND CONTINUES PAST 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 13N W OF 124W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N83W TO 04N91W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS ALONG 06N102W
TO 08N109W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 07N122W AND CONTINUES PAST 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 02N TO 13N
WEST OF 124W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON EITHER SIDE
OF A WEAKENING MONSOON TROUGH AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 09N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT, THEN TO MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER LARGE AREA OF 8 FT
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXED SWELL WILL STRETCH FROM ABOUT 02N TO
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W AS A RESULT OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL THAT PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO A SMALLER EXTENT
THOSE INDUCED BY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN
EVEN LARGER AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH
WILL COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF AROUND 92W BY
WED.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - ENE 20-27, Seas NE 5-9 feet @ 5sec
TONITE - ENE 26-35, Seas NE 6-10 feet @ 5sec
TUESDAY - ENE 28-38, Seas NE 8-12 feet @ 6sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - ENE 24-33, Seas NE 6-9 feet @ 5sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
WEDNESDAY - ENE 24-33, Seas NE 6-9 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - ENE 17-23, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - ENE 16-22, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - ENE 21-29, Seas NE 5-8 feet @ 5sec
SUNDAY - ENE 24-33, Seas NE 5-9 feet @ 5sec