Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
October 3, 2023, 3:06 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LIDIA NEAR 12.3N 107.6W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
03 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...20 NM SW QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
15N107W TO 14N108W TO 13N109W TO 11N108W TO 11N107W TO 13N106W TO
15N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LIDIA NEAR 14.0N 109.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12
FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N108W TO 16N110W TO
15N111W TO 13N111W TO 12N110W TO 13N108W TO 16N108W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LIDIA NEAR 15.4N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT
OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 45 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N108W TO 17N109W TO 17N111W TO
15N111W TO 14N110W TO 15N108W TO 16N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
10 TO 14 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N107W TO 18N109W TO
18N111W TO 16N113W TO 13N110W TO 14N107W TO 17N107W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LIDIA NEAR 16.0N 111.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LIDIA NEAR 15.9N 112.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE LIDIA NEAR 15.9N 114.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 10-13, Seas WNW 4.8-5.9 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - NNW 10-13, Seas WNW 4.8-5.9 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas NW 4.3-5.8 feet @ 17sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-12, Seas NW 4.3-5.8 feet @ 17sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.4-5.8 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.4-5.8 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.2-5.7 feet @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.2-5.7 feet @ 10sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 12-15, Seas SSE 2.9-5 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 12-15, Seas SSE 2.9-5 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSE 2.9-5 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSE 2.9-5 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 9-11, Seas NW 2.8-5 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 NW 10-13, Seas NW 2.8-5.2 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NNW 8-10, Seas W 2.1-4.7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-13, Seas SW 0-5 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 10-13, Seas WNW 2.5-5.2 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 N 7-9, Seas W 0-4.7 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 9-11, Seas WNW 0-5.3 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 SSE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 12sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 ESE 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NNW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 SSE 4-5, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA S OF 30N. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE IN THE
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ALSO SHOWN BY THE ASCAT. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND 1-3 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WILL MOVE TO 14N109W WED
MORNING, 15.5N110W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A 65 KT HURRICANE
FRI MORNING NEAR 16N111W, THEN CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 16N112W SAT MORNING AND 16N114W SUN MORNING. LIDIA
WILL BEGIN DIRECTLY AFFECTING MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONES
WELL TO THE WSW OF JALISCO AND COLIMA, AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS THU AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE SEAS WILL NOT VARY MUCH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MAINLY AT NIGHT, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - NW 11-14, Seas S 1.7-2.9 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas S 1.7-2.9 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SW 0-2.9 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 11-14, Seas SW 0-2.9 feet @ 18sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SSE 0.9-3.5 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 6-7, Seas SSE 0.9-3.5 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 7-9, Seas SSE 1.3-3.6 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 7-9, Seas SSE 1.3-3.6 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
THURSDAY - Northern Half W 10-12, Seas SSW 1.7-2.8 feet @ 16sec, Southern Half ENE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - Northern Half NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-2.8 feet @ 16sec, Southern Half NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0.8-5.1 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.7-3 feet @ 14sec, Southern Half SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half W 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half SSE 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - Northern Half N 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NE 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SSE 0.9-3.5 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - WNW 6-7, Seas SSE 0.9-3.5 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 7-9, Seas SSE 1.3-3.6 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 7-9, Seas SSE 1.3-3.6 feet @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
THURSDAY - ENE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0.8-5.1 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - SSE 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - NE 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 1-2.6 feet @ 19sec
TONITE - WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 1-2.6 feet @ 19sec
WEDNESDAY - ESE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-2.6 feet @ 17sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - ESE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-2.6 feet @ 17sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
THURSDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - W 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - ESE 10-12, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - S 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - W 6-7, Seas SSE 0-3.6 feet @ 11sec
TONITE - W 6-7, Seas SSE 0-3.6 feet @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
THURSDAY - SSE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - SE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - E 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.6 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - WSW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W 9-11, Seas SSE 1.3-4.5 feet @ 10sec
TONITE - W 9-11, Seas SSE 1.3-4.5 feet @ 10sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 18sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
THURSDAY - WSW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - WNW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-5.1 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SSE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.7 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - WSW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - W 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS PREVAIL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA S OF 30N. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE IN THE
IMMEDIATE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ALSO SHOWN BY THE ASCAT. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND 1-3 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WILL MOVE TO 14N109W WED
MORNING, 15.5N110W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A 65 KT HURRICANE
FRI MORNING NEAR 16N111W, THEN CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 16N112W SAT MORNING AND 16N114W SUN MORNING. LIDIA
WILL BEGIN DIRECTLY AFFECTING MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONES
WELL TO THE WSW OF JALISCO AND COLIMA, AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LUCAS THU AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE SEAS WILL NOT VARY MUCH INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MAINLY AT NIGHT, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - W 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - W 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - W 12-15, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - W 12-15, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 18sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
THURSDAY - ESE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NNE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - N 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.9 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - N 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - ESE 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N86W TO 12N104W...AND FROM 10N110W TO
12N124W TO 10N131W TO 12N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 03N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 129W...AND
FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N104W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA NEAR 10N110W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 12N124W TO 10N131W TO 12N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 129W, AND FROM 07N TO
12N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W.
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM LIDIA. AND ON A LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
12N124W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 12N
AND W OF 125W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL N OF
19N AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN SE SWELL S OF 09N
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. SEAS OF 5-7 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN MIXED
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WILL MOVE TO 14N109W WED
MORNING, 15.5N110W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A 65 KT HURRICANE
FRI MORNING NEAR 16N111W, THEN CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 16N112W SAT MORNING AND 16N114W SUN MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THE NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N124W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ON THE NW SIDE
BEFORE WEAKENING MID-WEEK WHILE NOT MOVING MUCH. WINDS OF
MODERATE OR WEAKER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY SWELL
OF 7-9 FT WILL WAX AND WANE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
FROM AROUND 05N SOUTHWARD.
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR. NORTH OF 06N, SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN
S SWELL. SOUTH OF 06N, SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN S SWELL. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA, SOUTHWARD TO 05N.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - S 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - S 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - SSE 15-19, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 8sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SSE 15-19, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 8sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
THURSDAY - SSE 16-20, Seas SSW 0-5.1 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - SSE 12-15, Seas SSW 0-5.6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.9 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - SE 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (25.4 days old)
Updated 08 Sep 2023 09:25:07 GMT (25.4 days old)
SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS
https://tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2023/09/08/23251000/1/WEGM42/WEGM42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (2.1 days old)
Updated 01 Oct 2023 15:44:22 GMT (2.1 days old)
35 miles SW of Eureka, California
https://tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2023/10/01/s1uwx5/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.