Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
May 16, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
Questions/Comments visit http://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 4.7-5.6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 4.7-5.6 feet @ 14sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 5.1-6.7 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 5.1-6.7 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 4.8-6.1 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 4.8-6.1 feet @ 15sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 15-19, Seas SSW 4.4-6.4 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 15-19, Seas SSW 4.4-6.4 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 18-23, Seas SSW 6.4-7.3 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 18-23, Seas SSW 6.4-7.3 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 4.8-5.6 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NW 14-18, Seas SSW 4.7-5.9 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 NW 18-23, Seas SSW 5.5-6.5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas NW 5.7-6.8 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 NW 14-18, Seas SSW 5.4-6.3 feet @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 NW 19-24, Seas WNW 6.9-7.6 feet @ 6sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-13, Seas SSW 4.7-5.6 feet @ 18sec, Southern 1/3 NW 18-23, Seas SSW 5.9-6.7 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 WNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N S TO SW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.42 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29N TO 30.5N S TO SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M. N OF 30.5W NW WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PARTS OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A LOW PRES
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
TONIGHT PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA WILL REACH THE WATERS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD, MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 118W AND 130W ON TUE.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - W 12-15, Seas SSW 2.7-3.9 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - W 12-15, Seas SSW 2.7-3.9 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - W 13-16, Seas SSW 3.1-4 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - W 13-16, Seas SSW 3.1-4 feet @ 15sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 2.1-5 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 2.1-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - W 10-13, Seas SSW 2.7-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - W 10-13, Seas SSW 2.7-4.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SUNDAY - Northern Half W 16-20, Seas W 4.4-5 feet @ 6sec, Southern Half NW 10-12, Seas SSW 2.8-4.6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern Half N 13-16, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 14sec, Southern Half WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 2.2-4.2 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half W 8-10, Seas SW 1.9-3.2 feet @ 18sec, Southern Half WNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half WSW 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half WNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - Northern Half WSW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half SSW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 2.1-5 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 2.1-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - W 10-13, Seas SSW 2.7-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - W 10-13, Seas SSW 2.7-4.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 2.8-4.6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 2.2-4.2 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - SSW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - W 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - W 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 19sec
TUESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.7-3.4 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - W 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - W 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SUNDAY - N 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - N 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - N 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.7 feet @ 18sec
WEDNESDAY - N 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - SW 6-8, Seas SSW 1.6-6.2 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - SW 6-8, Seas SSW 1.6-6.2 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.3-5.5 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.3-5.5 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SUNDAY - SW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - SW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 19sec
TUESDAY - SW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 17sec
WEDNESDAY - W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-6.5 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-6.5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.4 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - SSW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 19sec
TUESDAY - S 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NNW 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - N 25-31, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N93W TO 09N110W TO
06N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N AND E OF
88W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W
AND 130W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
89W AND 93W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 07N93W TO 09N110W TO
06N123W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N AND E OF
88W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND
130W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W
AND 93W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS FROM 11N TO 26N W OF 130W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 125W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NW SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND
WAVES TO KEEP AND AREA OF ROUGH SEAS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
WATERS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY FROM 10N TO 20N WEST
OF 130W. A NEW SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE N WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MON, BUILDING SEAS TO 10 OR 11 FT ROUGH SEAS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W BY MON NIGHT.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 87W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS, WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SSW 6-7, Seas SW 0-5.2 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - SSW 6-7, Seas SW 0-5.2 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.9 feet @ 15sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SUNDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - NE 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
THURSDAY - NE 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (12.5 days old)
Updated 04 May 2025 07:03:12 GMT (12.5 days old)
ABOUT MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT THOMAS
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/05/04/25124050/1/WECA42/WECA42.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (4.9 days old)
Updated 11 May 2025 21:56:35 GMT (4.9 days old)
in eastern Siberia, Russia
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/05/11/sw49zb/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.