Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
September 18, 2025, 9:01 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America
**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**
Questions/Comments visit http://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 10-13, Seas SW 2.2-4.5 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-13, Seas SW 2.2-4.5 feet @ 12sec
SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 1.7-4.6 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 1.7-4.6 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.9-4.5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.9-4.5 feet @ 13sec
SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.7 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.7 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - E 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.7 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - E 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.7 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-14, Seas NW 2.6-5.3 feet @ 11sec, Middle 2/3 N 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.2 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 ESE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-14, Seas NW 3.2-5.2 feet @ 11sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 8-10, Seas SW 0-4.3 feet @ 11sec, Southern 1/3 W 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4 feet @ 8sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-14, Seas WSW 3.6-5 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NW 14-17, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 WNW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, ASSOCIATED
WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE
7-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 5-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TODAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
DIMINISH EARLY TODAY. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO AND SSW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - W 10-13, Seas SSW 1.6-3.5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - W 10-13, Seas SSW 1.6-3.5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - N 11-14, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - N 11-14, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 13sec
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - N 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half N 10-13, Seas SSW 0-2.9 feet @ 13sec, Southern Half SE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half W 8-10, Seas SSW 0.9-2.7 feet @ 12sec, Southern Half SW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - Northern Half W 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 8sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half W 9-11, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half W 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half NNW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half WSW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - N 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 3-4, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - SE 6-8, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - SW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.6 feet @ 8sec
TUESDAY - W 5-6, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WSW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - WSW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - E 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - S 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.4 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0.9-3.2 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.1 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - SSE 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - SSE 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - SE 14-17, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SE 14-17, Seas SSW 0-5.2 feet @ 14sec
LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SATURDAY - SSE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 9sec
SUNDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SW 0-3.9 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY - W 8-10, Seas SW 0-3.8 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - S 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - SSW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-6.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - SSW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-6.1 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-5.8 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SATURDAY - S 3-4, Seas SW 0-5.1 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - E 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NE 5-6, Seas SW 0-4 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - ESE 15-19, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - ESE 25-31, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N95W TO 15N94W TO
16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, ASSOCIATED
WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE
7-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 5-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH TODAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS PULSING AFTERWARDS THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP96, BEING MONITORED WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
DIMINISH EARLY TODAY. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-6.1 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-6.1 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SATURDAY - ESE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.6 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - NNE 5-6, Seas SW 0-4.2 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - SSW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - S 7-9, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
**GAP WINDS FORECAST**
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N109W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N OF 03N AND E OF 100W...AND
FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 88W TO THE N OF 01N, MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 109W, FROM 01N TO 20N, MOVING
SLOWLY W AT AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP96, ALONG IT.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N109W
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED N OF 03N AND E OF 100W, AND FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W
AND 115W.
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TOUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY TODAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
TODAY, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE,
EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE OVER
THE NW WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE CONDITIONS, AND CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH EP96, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 4-7
FT PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE
IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE W OF 120W, AND 6-9 FT RANGE E OF 120W IN S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR
THE AXIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL S
OF EP96, WHICH HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF EP96, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IN ITS VICINITY. FRESH NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MARINE
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AND BE QUITE TRANQUIL ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, LOCALLY STRONG, ASSOCIATED
WITH EP96 ARE OFF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE
7-9 FT RANGE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND 5-8 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, REACHING 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
.WITHIN 06N81W TO 08N84W TO 05N89W TO 02N88W TO 02N82W TO 03N80W
TO 06N81W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO
PENINSULA... WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SSW 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - SSW 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - S 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - SW 7-9, Seas SW 0-4 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - SW 5-6, Seas SW 0-3.7 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
TUESDAY - S 6-7, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
WEDNESDAY - ENE 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (5.4 days old)
Updated 13 Sep 2025 03:49:44 GMT (5.4 days old)
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (1.3 days old)
Updated 17 Sep 2025 06:40:20 GMT (1.3 days old)
100 miles S of Kodiak City, Alaska
https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/09/17/t2pznb/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt
WEAK53 PAAQ 170640
TIBAK1
Tsunami Information Statement Number 1
NWS National Tsunami Warning Center Palmer AK
1040 PM AKDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EVALUATION
----------
* There is NO tsunami danger from this earthquake.
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary
assessment of the earthquake and changes may occur.
* Magnitude 4.6
* Origin Time 2236 AKDT Sep 16 2025
2336 PDT Sep 16 2025
0636 UTC Sep 17 2025
* Coordinates 56.3 North 152.2 West
* Depth 2 miles
* Location 100 miles S of Kodiak City, Alaska
345 miles SW of Anchorage, Alaska
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND NEXT UPDATE
--------------------------------------
* Further information will be issued by the United States
Geological Survey (earthquake.usgs.gov) or the appropriate
regional seismic network.
* This will be the only U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center
message issued for this event unless additional information
becomes available.
$$