Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America



February 17, 2019, 8:30 pm (UTC: -08:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 18-24, Seas NW 13-20 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 14-19, Seas NW 10-16 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NW 17-23, Seas NW 9-15 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NW 17-23, Seas NW 10-16 feet @ 12sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NNW 19-26, Seas NW 11-17 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 18-25, Seas NW 10-16 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - NNW 18-25, Seas NW 9-15 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NW 16-21, Seas NW 7-11 feet @ 13sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NNW 7-10, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - WNW 3-4, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - NW 12-17, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NW 16-22, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 17-23, Seas NW 10-16 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 18-25, Seas NW 8-12 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 NW 19-26, Seas WNW 7-11 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 11-15, Seas WNW 6-9 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 10-14, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 6-9, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 15-21, Seas WNW 6-9 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NW 11-15, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 15sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 9-12, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 13-18, Seas NW 9-14 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 8-12, Seas WNW 6-9 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 NW 9-13, Seas WSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 N 7-10, Seas NW 8-13 feet @ 11sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 10-13, Seas WNW 6-10 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-15, Seas WSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 26N WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N SW TO W WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N SW TO W
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N W
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.


GULF OF CALIFORNIA: LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W WINDS TO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT, AND
THEN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MIDDAY MON
THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE GULF ON TUE, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - N 7-9, Seas NW 1-2 feet @ 4sec
TONITE - WSW 9-12, Seas NW 1-2 feet @ 4sec
MONDAY - W 18-25, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 7sec
MONDAY NIGHT - WNW 18-24, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 5sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NNW 15-20, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 6sec
TONITE - NNW 15-20, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 6sec
MONDAY - NNW 13-18, Seas NW 4-7 feet @ 6sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
TUESDAY - Northern Half WNW 18-24, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half NNW 13-18, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half ESE 7-10, Seas NW 0-1 feet @ 4sec, Southern Half NNW 16-21, Seas NNW 5-8 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - Northern Half SW 15-21, Seas SW 2-4 feet @ 3sec, Southern Half WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - Northern Half WSW 13-18, Seas WNW 2-4 feet @ 6sec, Southern Half NW 4-6, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half N 9-12, Seas NW 2-3 feet @ 4sec, Southern Half NNW 15-20, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 12sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNW 15-20, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 6sec
TONITE - NNW 15-20, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 6sec
MONDAY - NNW 13-18, Seas NW 4-7 feet @ 6sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
TUESDAY - NNW 13-18, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 16-21, Seas NNW 5-8 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NW 4-6, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - NNW 15-20, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 12sec


**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - N 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - WNW 9-13, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 11sec
MONDAY NIGHT - NNW 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TUESDAY - NNW 11-15, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-17, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - NW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-14, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - NW 14-19, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec


**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNW 9-13, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - NNE 7-10, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - NW 8-11, Seas WSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY NIGHT - N 7-10, Seas WSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TUESDAY - N 10-13, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - N 12-17, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - NNW 9-12, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NNE 10-14, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - NNE 14-19, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 12sec


**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W 7-9, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
TONITE - WNW 7-10, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - W 9-13, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
MONDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-9, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TUESDAY - W 8-11, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - W 8-12, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - WNW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - NW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec


**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - SW 9-12, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SW 6-9, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - SW 5-7, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY NIGHT - W 4-6, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TUESDAY - SSW 5-7, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - WSW 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - SW 4-6, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - WNW 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec


**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N74W TO 04.5N83W TO 05N94W TO 04N100W.
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 00N120W TO 00N130W. SECOND ITCZ
FROM 03.4S94W TO 02.5S106W TO BEYOND 03.4S116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 104W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF SECOND
ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...UPDATED

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO 04.5N83W
TO 05N94W TO 04N100W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 04N100W TO 00N120W TO
00N130W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, WELL TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 42N145W, WILL REMAIN IN
THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N136W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
10N107W, WHICH HAS FORCED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE
EQUATOR. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AREA IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N
OF ABOUT 08N AND W OF 110W. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N140W TO 10N128W TO
09N128W TO 08.5N140W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15
FT. THIS CURRENT OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG 25N PULLS NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. THE AREA OF STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST, BUT OVER A GRADUALLY SMALLER SECTION OF THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SEAS THERE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO AROUND THE 10 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LARGE
SWELL GRADUALLY PROPAGATES SE OF THE AREA.

GENTLE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO THE MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS ON MON, AND TO STRONGER
SPEEDS OF FRESH TO MODERATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

GENTLE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO THE MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS ON MON, AND TO STRONGER
SPEEDS OF FRESH TO MODERATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - NE 9-12, Seas SW 2-4 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - ENE 13-17, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - NE 17-23, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY NIGHT - ENE 22-30, Seas NE 5-8 feet @ 5sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TUESDAY - ENE 22-30, Seas NE 5-8 feet @ 5sec
WEDNESDAY - ENE 21-28, Seas ENE 5-8 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - ENE 15-21, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - ENE 18-24, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - ENE 18-25, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec