Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America



October 15, 2018, 8:31 am (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 17.6N 104.4W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 17.9N 104.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.0N 105.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.4N 107.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.9N 108.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 19.0N 108.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

...GALE WARNING...
.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S98W TO 02N110W TO 12N98W TO 15N103W TO
10N115W TO 00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S100W TO 03N110W TO 00N120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED
BY 12N95W TO 17N104W TO 10N117W TO 06N110W TO 12N95W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 116W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.

.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST W OF AREA. N OF 28N W OF 138WW
OF LINE FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W. N OF 28N E
OF FRONT TO 137W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. W OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W.
N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 136W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT. W OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.

.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 9
FT.
.48 GOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC MON OCT 15...

.TROPICAL STORM TARA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NEAR
12N87W TO 15N97W. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 14N106W TO 10N120W TO 11N133W TO 09N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODEARTE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W-93W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-111W...FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-134W.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NNW 12-17, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 12-16, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - NW 7-10, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - N 8-11, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - NW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 10-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - N 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 13-18, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - NW 15-20, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 11-15, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - NW 9-13, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 7-10, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 N 8-11, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 13-18, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec, Southern 1/3 NNW 7-10, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 10-14, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 9-12, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec, Southern 1/3 NW 8-11, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 11-15, Seas WNW 5-9 feet @ 16sec, Middle 2/3 NW 9-13, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 17sec, Southern 1/3 NW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 9-13, Seas WNW 5-9 feet @ 14sec, Middle 2/3 NW 7-10, Seas WNW 5-8 feet @ 15sec, Southern 1/3 NNW 8-12, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 7-9, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 7-10, Seas WNW 4-7 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 8-11, Seas WSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.


GULF OF CALIFORNIA: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY FROM 15Z UNTIL 00Z TUE. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP N OF 27N IN RESPONSE TO
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN OF THE UNITED
STATES. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED N OF 30N,
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 OR 10 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUE, BUT MAINLY N OF 29N.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - NNW 21-29, Seas NW 8-12 feet @ 7sec
TONITE - NNW 18-24, Seas NW 7-11 feet @ 7sec
TUESDAY - NNW 18-25, Seas NW 6-10 feet @ 7sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 14-19, Seas NW 5-8 feet @ 7sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - NNW 9-13, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - NNW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - NW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half NNW 14-20, Seas NW 3-5 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half NNW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - Northern Half NNW 15-21, Seas NW 4-6 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half NNW 12-16, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - Northern Half NW 14-19, Seas NW 4-7 feet @ 6sec, Southern Half NNW 11-15, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half WNW 10-13, Seas NW 2-4 feet @ 6sec, Southern Half NW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half WNW 6-9, Seas NW 1-2 feet @ 4sec, Southern Half NW 8-11, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 19sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNW 9-13, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - NNW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - NW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - NNW 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 12-16, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NNW 11-15, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - NW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - NW 8-11, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 19sec


**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 10-14, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 9-12, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - NW 12-16, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 9-12, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - NNW 9-12, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NW 11-16, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - NNW 8-11, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - WNW 9-12, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 19sec


**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - NNW 10-14, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 3-4, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - NNW 12-17, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - N 9-12, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
WEDNESDAY - N 9-12, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - N 9-12, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
SUNDAY - SSE 5-7, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 13sec


**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - ESE 9-13, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - ENE 4-6, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - W 6-8, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 15sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 6-8, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
WEDNESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas SW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - N 5-7, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY - ESE 10-14, Seas SE 10-16 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - ESE 22-30, Seas S 15-23 feet @ 12sec


**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**

.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 9
FT.
.48 GOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NEAR
12N87W TO 15N97W. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 14N106W TO 10N120W TO 11N133W TO 09N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODEARTE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W-93W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-111W...FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-134W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO START
EARLY ON WED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - WSW 12-16, Seas SSW 6-10 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - W 10-14, Seas SW 6-9 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - N 13-18, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 18-25, Seas SW 7-11 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - NNW 22-30, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 6sec
THURSDAY - N 19-26, Seas SSW 7-11 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - ENE 10-14, Seas SSE 10-15 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY - NNW 9-12, Seas SW 7-12 feet @ 9sec
SUNDAY - NNW 25-33, Seas NNW 9-14 feet @ 6sec


**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NEAR
12N87W TO 15N97W. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 14N106W TO 10N120W TO 11N133W TO 09N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODEARTE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W-93W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-111W...FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-134W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N77W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N81W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SE MEXICO TO NEAR 17N96W TO 17N102W, THEN RESUMES SW
OF TROPICAL STORM TARA AT 14N107W TO 12N112W TO 12N130W TO
BEYOND 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N83W TO
15N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS TAKING
PLACE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N83W
TO 14N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W, FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W AND FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W.

A WEAK RIDGE SURROUNDING 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N133W
DOMINATES THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS N OF 20N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 20N AND N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE FORECASTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N139W TO 27N140W ON
TUE, THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS
ON WED WHILE WEAKENING. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 30N134W TO
22N140W ON WED.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SSE 9-12, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SSE 11-15, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 11sec
TUESDAY - SE 12-16, Seas SW 5-9 feet @ 10sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SSE 3-4, Seas SW 5-9 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
WEDNESDAY - ESE 9-12, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
THURSDAY - ENE 8-10, Seas SW 5-9 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - ENE 13-18, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - ENE 13-18, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
SUNDAY - NE 15-21, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 17sec