Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America



June 21, 2018, 8:30 pm (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - NW 9-12, Seas WSW 4-6 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - NW 10-13, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 18sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-14, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WNW 8-12, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - WNW 12-17, Seas W 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - WNW 12-16, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WNW 10-13, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - WNW 13-18, Seas WSW 5-8 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - WNW 12-17, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WNW 12-16, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WSW 6-9, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 8-12, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec, Middle 2/3 SW 7-10, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 WSW 6-9, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 SSE 6-9, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 WSW 5-7, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 14sec, Southern 1/3 W 8-11, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern 1/3 WNW 6-9, Seas W 4-7 feet @ 10sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 8-10, Seas S 5-8 feet @ 13sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 11-15, Seas S 5-8 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 8-12, Seas SSE 4-7 feet @ 13sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 10-14, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 12-17, Seas S 5-9 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 9-13, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 WNW 12-16, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 12sec, Southern 1/3 WNW 13-17, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 12sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N SE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.


MODERATE NW WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TODAY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ALONG
THE LENGTH OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SUN MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY N OF 29N
SAT AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY SAT NIGHT,
THEN SUBSIDE SUN ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO FRI AFTERNOON, AND BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 7 FT IN
OFFSHORE WATERS BY SAT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THERE SUN AND MON.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - SSE 8-10, Seas S 0-1 feet @ 2sec
TONITE - SW 4-5, Seas SSE 0-1 feet @ 2sec
FRIDAY - S 9-12, Seas SSE 1-2 feet @ 2sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - S 14-19, Seas SSE 2-3 feet @ 3sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - S 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - SSW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 8-10, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
SATURDAY - Northern Half SSE 18-25, Seas SE 4-7 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half SW 8-12, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - Northern Half SSE 13-18, Seas SE 3-5 feet @ 5sec, Southern Half WSW 9-13, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - Northern Half S 11-16, Seas SSE 1-3 feet @ 3sec, Southern Half WSW 7-10, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - Northern Half SSW 5-8, Seas SE 0-0 feet @ 3sec, Southern Half WSW 7-9, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half S 8-11, Seas S 1-2 feet @ 2sec, Southern Half SSE 6-8, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 11sec


**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - S 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - SSW 9-13, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 8-10, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - SW 8-12, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - WSW 9-13, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WSW 7-10, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SSE 6-8, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 11sec


**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WSW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 18sec
TONITE - SW 4-6, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - WSW 2-2, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - W 8-11, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - WNW 10-14, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 10-13, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas S 3-5 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 2-4 feet @ 15sec


**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - W 7-10, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - WSW 3-4, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WSW 7-10, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SW 1-2, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
SATURDAY - W 5-7, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NW 10-13, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - NNW 9-13, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-8, Seas S 4-6 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 4-6, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 15sec


**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - W 4-6, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
TONITE - N 3-4, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - SSW 4-6, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NE 2-3, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
SATURDAY - W 6-8, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - W 10-13, Seas S 5-9 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - WNW 8-11, Seas S 5-9 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY - S 6-8, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - ENE 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec


**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - S 7-10, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - S 3-4, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
FRIDAY - SE 4-6, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 5-7, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SATURDAY - SSW 6-8, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - SW 4-6, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
MONDAY - SSW 7-10, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 12sec
TUESDAY - SSW 10-13, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - N 13-18, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 15sec


**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 11N90W TO 14N111W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12N116W TO 08N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N122W
TO 06N127W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 78W AND 88W AND ALSO FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
108W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W
TO 14N107W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N106W TO 08N122W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO 10N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS WEST OF 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 09N AND 11N THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS, WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 8 FT S OF 08N BY EARLY SAT, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SUN AND MON.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N116W IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF
1011 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE TROUGH
AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
LOW THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER, THIS LOW MERITS CLOSE OBSERVATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SW 6-9, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SE 0-0, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NE 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - ENE 12-16, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - ENE 15-21, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - ENE 12-16, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - ENE 14-19, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - ENE 12-16, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NE 15-21, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 13sec