Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

October 14, 2025, 3:01 am (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Weather Summary for Mexico and Central America

**OUTSIDE BAJA FORECAST**

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

WARNINGS
.NONE.
SHORT-TERM ENSENADA - CEDROS
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas NW 0-5.5 feet @ 20sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 8-10, Seas NW 0-5.5 feet @ 20sec

SHORT-TERM CEDROS - SAN LAZAROS
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.5 feet @ 14sec

SHORT-TERM SAN LAZAROS - CABO FALSO
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NW 17-21, Seas SSW 4.8-5.7 feet @ 13sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 17-21, Seas SSW 4.8-5.7 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM OUTSIDE OF THE BAJA
WEDNESDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-18, Seas NW 4.1-7.8 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 NW 13-16, Seas NW 3.6-5.8 feet @ 18sec, Southern 1/3 NW 17-21, Seas SSW 5-5.8 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 14-18, Seas WNW 4.3-7.7 feet @ 12sec, Middle 2/3 NNW 13-16, Seas NW 4.3-6.6 feet @ 18sec, Southern 1/3 NW 14-18, Seas WNW 3.5-5 feet @ 18sec
FRIDAY - Northern 1/3 NNW 12-15, Seas WNW 4.5-6.3 feet @ 16sec, Middle 2/3 NW 9-11, Seas W 3.4-6.1 feet @ 18sec, Southern 1/3 NW 11-14, Seas W 0-4.8 feet @ 18sec
SATURDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 7-9, Seas W 0-5.2 feet @ 16sec, Southern 1/3 NW 10-13, Seas WSW 2.2-4.7 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - Northern 1/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Middle 2/3 NW 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern 1/3 NNW 13-16, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**SEA OF CORTEZ FORECAST**

.WITHIN 31N113W TO 31N114W TO 31N115W TO 30N114W TO 30N113W TO
31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S TO SW WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. TO THE WEST, THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IS LEADING
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, WITH
RESULTANT NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT
IMPACTING THE WATERS AROUND GUADALUPE ISLAND AND THE OFFSHORE
AREAS BEYOND 120 NM OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH, BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE LOW DRIFTS TO OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO, BUT STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TUE.
THESE HIGHER WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD,
THEN NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ NORTHERN HALF (north of 27N)
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - WNW 14-17, Seas SSW 2.8-3.8 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WNW 14-17, Seas SSW 2.8-3.8 feet @ 14sec

SHORT-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN HALF (south of 27N)
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.9-4.3 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.9-4.3 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM SEA OF CORTEZ
WEDNESDAY - Northern Half WNW 15-19, Seas SSW 3.5-4.2 feet @ 13sec, Southern Half NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 3.1-4.4 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - Northern Half NNW 14-18, Seas SSW 0-4.1 feet @ 12sec, Southern Half NW 7-9, Seas SSW 2.1-3.7 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - Northern Half W 9-11, Seas SW 1.8-3.1 feet @ 17sec, Southern Half NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - Northern Half W 12-15, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - Northern Half WNW 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?, Southern Half NW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**SEA OF CORTEZ SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.9-4.3 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.9-4.3 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 3.1-4.4 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 2.1-3.7 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.7 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - NW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**MAZATLAN TO BANDERAS BAY FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.9-3.3 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.9-3.3 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - NW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.6-3.5 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 2.1-3.2 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas SSW 1.4-3.4 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - NW 10-13, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - NW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**CABO CORRIENTES FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.5-4.1 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.5-4.1 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM CABO CORRIENTES TO MANZANILLO
WEDNESDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-3.8 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-4.3 feet @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 2-4.5 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - N 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - N 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**MEXICAN RIVIERA FORECAST**
SHORT-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - E 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - E 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.8 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM MEXICAN RIVIERA MANZANILLO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
WEDNESDAY - W 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - WNW 9-11, Seas SSW 1.3-4.2 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - WNW 11-14, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - WNW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST**

.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO
14N95W TO 15N95W TO 16N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH, BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE LOW DRIFTS TO OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO, BUT STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TUE.
THESE HIGHER WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD,
THEN NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - N 11-14, Seas SSW 2.7-5.2 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - N 11-14, Seas SSW 2.7-5.2 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.4-4.6 feet @ 13sec
THURSDAY - ESE 10-13, Seas SSW 2.9-5.1 feet @ 18sec
FRIDAY - ESE 12-15, Seas SSW 8.8-9.7 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - ESE 16-20, Seas SSW 8.6-9.5 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - ESE 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

**GAP WINDS FORECAST**

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N95W
1007 MB TO 10N105W TO 10N114W TO 08N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N124W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W AND 87W AND WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA, TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA, TO 12N86W TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 14N95W 1007 MB TO 10N105W TO 80N114W AND TO
08N124W, WHERE ITS TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N124W TO 09N130W
AND TO BEYOND TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-87W,
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-90W.

BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH WINDS ACROSS THESE WATERS. SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN THIS REGION, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W, WHERE NORTH SWELL
IS PROPAGATING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SWELL NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W
WILL SUBSIDE LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N TUE THROUGH THU. A NEW SET OF
LONG-PERIOD 8 TO 10 FT SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF 25N THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE REGION OF THE
ITCZ WILL SUPPORT MODERATE FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 10N
AND WEST OF 130W THU AND FRI. FARTHER SOUTH, WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 120W
THROUGH WED.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SEEN FROM 14N TO
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 UTC
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
14N94W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT CONTINUE OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.

FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL NEAR GUADALUPE ISLAND OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. TO THE SOUTH, BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE LOW DRIFTS TO OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO, BUT STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING TUE.
THESE HIGHER WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD,
THEN NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - Not available yet
TONITE - Not available yet
TUESDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.3 feet @ 14sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - WNW 6-7, Seas SW 0-4.3 feet @ 14sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
WEDNESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.3 feet @ 12sec
THURSDAY - W 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.3 feet @ 19sec
FRIDAY - S 10-13, Seas SW 0-4.9 feet @ 17sec
SATURDAY - WSW 10-12, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
SUNDAY - NW 8-10, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?

** TSUNAMI INFO **
tsunami
See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PHEBAtom.xml PTCW - Tsunami warnings and info for Pacific Ocean (3.3 days old)
Updated 10 Oct 2025 22:44:10 GMT (3.3 days old)

See https://www.tsunami.gov/events/xml/PAAQAtom.xml NWS West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Center Bulletins (3.4 days old)
Updated 10 Oct 2025 20:44:14 GMT (3.4 days old)
near the Drake Passage, south of South America

https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PAAQ/2025/10/10/t3xnl1/1/WEAK53/WEAK53.txt

Incident past 2 days, follow link for details.