Tehuantepec Forecast
October 14, 2025, 3:01 pm (UTC: -04:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
WARNINGS
.NONE.
.WITHIN 15N95W TO 16N95W TO 15N96W TO 14N96W TO 15N95W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N94.5W 1010 MB. WITHIN
15N94W TO 16N95W TO 13N98W TO 12N99W TO 12N95W TO 15N94W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N95.5W 1008 MB. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 96W NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE LOCALIZED TROUGHING
THERE.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SE OF THE GULF
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NW OF THE
GULF OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER UNDER THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT W OF 110W
AND OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA IN NW SWELL, AND 4-6 FT E OF 110W IN
PRIMARILY S-SW SWELL, EXCEPT 5-8 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF WIND WAVES. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO WED IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL FRESHEN BEHIND
THE FRONT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN. WINDS THEN WILL WEAKEN THERE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE
THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - N 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.4-4.6 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 12-15, Seas SSW 2.4-4.6 feet @ 13sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
THURSDAY - ESE 10-13, Seas SSW 2.9-5.1 feet @ 18sec
FRIDAY - ESE 12-15, Seas SSW 8.8-9.7 feet @ 16sec
SATURDAY - ESE 16-20, Seas SSW 8.6-9.5 feet @ 16sec
SUNDAY - ESE 14-18, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?
MONDAY - SW 6-8, Seas N/A ?-? feet @ ?