Tehuantepec Forecast



November 24, 2017, 8:30 am (UTC: -08:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast


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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14N95.5W TO 12N96.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.03 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W
TO 12.5N96.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08.5N TO 14N
BETWEEN 93.5W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 97W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W
AND 95.5W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.STATIONARY FRONT JUST NW OF AREA. W OF LINE FROM 30N121W TO
12N137W TO 12N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW
SWELL...EXCEPT 12 TO 13 FT FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 135W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. NW OF
FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. N OF 28N E OF FRONT
TO 133W S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE NW
OF LINE FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT
IN NW SWELL. W OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 23N123W TO 12N125W TO
04N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW SWELL
AND NE WIND WAVES.
.48 HOUR FORECAST PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM 30N129W TO 20N139W.
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. NW OF SECONDARY
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE NW
OF LINE 30N134W TO 23N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
IN NW SWELL. FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 135W...AND S OF 10N W OF 125W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.

.FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 87.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 88.5W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 87W...INCLUDING THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC FRI NOV 24...

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 07N101W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N101W TO 11N117W TO 10N130W TO 09N135W TO
BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05.5N TO 10N E
OF 85.5W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 134W.

.WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N95.5W...
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT.
SEAS TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO
14N95.5W TO 12N96.5W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.
.03 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W
TO 12.5N96.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 08.5N TO 14N
BETWEEN 93.5W AND 100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN
MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 97W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14.5N BETWEEN 94.5W
AND 95.5W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.


A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
1500 UTC. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE CROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14.5N95.5W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO
12 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE
MORNING TODAY, AND TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE SAT MORNING. THE NE
SWELL GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS MIXING WITH LONG-
PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL, WITH SEAS 8 FT OR HIGHER WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 09N BETWEEN 94W AND
100W. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 8 FT
ONLY BRIEFLY ON SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG N WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
RESUME AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT, WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-
DAY SUN. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ANOTHER 30 TO 40 KT GAP WIND EVENT ON SUN NIGHT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 OR 17 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MON.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 19-26, Seas NNW 6-10 feet @ 6sec
TONITE - NNW 16-22, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - N 11-15, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNW 15-21, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - N 22-31, Seas NNW 7-12 feet @ 7sec
MONDAY - N 25-33, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec
TUESDAY - N 19-26, Seas NNW 6-10 feet @ 7sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 21-29, Seas NNW 6-10 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - N 23-31, Seas NNW 7-11 feet @ 6sec