Tehuantepec Forecast
October 15, 2018, 8:31 am (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast
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...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 17.6N 104.4W 1001 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT
15 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 17.9N 104.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.0N 105.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.4N 107.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 18.9N 108.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TARA NEAR 19.0N 108.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
...GALE WARNING...
.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N NW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N NW TO N WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.S OF LINE FROM 03.4S98W TO 02N110W TO 12N98W TO 15N103W TO
10N115W TO 00N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF LINE FROM 03.4S100W TO 03N110W TO 00N120W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT IN SW SWELL. WITHIN AREA BOUNDED
BY 12N95W TO 17N104W TO 10N117W TO 06N110W TO 12N95W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 116W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST W OF AREA. N OF 28N W OF 138WW
OF LINE FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W. N OF 28N E
OF FRONT TO 137W S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. W OF FRONT
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N138W TO 26N140W.
N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 136W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT. W OF FRONT WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 9
FT.
.48 GOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC MON OCT 15...
.TROPICAL STORM TARA...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NEAR
12N87W TO 15N97W. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 14N106W TO 10N120W TO 11N133W TO 09N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODEARTE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W-93W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-111W...FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-134W.
.30 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 9
FT.
.48 GOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 13.5N95W N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W, THEN ACROSS NICARAGUA TO NEAR
12N87W TO 15N97W. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM 14N106W TO 10N120W TO 11N133W TO 09N140W. A
CLUSTER OF MODEARTE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 85W-93W...FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
98W-111W...FROM 09N- 12N BETWEEN 111W-117W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 127W-134W.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: NEXT GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO START
EARLY ON WED WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - WSW 12-16, Seas SSW 6-10 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - W 10-14, Seas SW 6-9 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - N 13-18, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - NNW 18-25, Seas SW 7-11 feet @ 16sec
LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - NNW 22-30, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 6sec
THURSDAY - N 19-26, Seas SSW 7-11 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY - ENE 10-14, Seas SSE 10-15 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY - NNW 9-12, Seas SW 7-12 feet @ 9sec
SUNDAY - NNW 25-33, Seas NNW 9-14 feet @ 6sec