Tehuantepec Forecast

October 23, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 11.2N 102.3W 971 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 23
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT
GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 10.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N99W TO 15N100W TO 14N104W TO
10N105W TO 09N101W TO 10N99W TO 13N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 14N98W TO 17N101W TO
14N110W TO 08N108W TO 05N103W TO 06N99W TO 14N98W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 12.9N 103.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM NE QUADRANT...190 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N100W TO 17N102W TO 16N106W TO 12N107W TO
10N103W TO 11N100W TO 14N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N98W TO 20N105W TO 17N112W TO
12N113W TO 04N108W TO 08N98W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE VANCE NEAR 14.9N 103.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...170 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W
TO 19N104W TO 18N106W TO 15N107W TO 13N105W TO 14N101W TO 17N100W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN
14N106W TO 19N105W TO 21N111W TO 13N114W TO 07N103W TO 14N98W TO
14N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N97W TO 13N96W TO 14N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WINDS TO GALE FORCE.
.18 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N93W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N95W TO
14N94W TO 15N93W TO 16N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO
13N96W TO 13N95W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.

.WITHIN 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO 14N97W TO 13N96W TO 14N94W
TO 16N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 16N93W TO 16N95W TO 16N96W TO 14N95W TO
14N94W TO 15N93W TO 16N93W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N94W TO 16N94W TO 16N95W TO 15N97W TO
13N96W TO 13N95W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC... NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HURRICANE VANCE IS SUPPORTING
MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE
FORCE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS VANCE FURTHER
INTENSIFIES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE VANCE, AND A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ASIDE FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND VANCE, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, VANCE WILL MOVE TO 11.9N 102.6W SAT MORNING,
12.9N 103.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 13.9N 103.3W SUN MORNING, 14.9N
103.6W SUN AFTERNOON, 15.7N 103.9W MON MORNING, AND 16.1N 104.1W
MON AFTERNOON. VANCE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TO NEAR 16.8N 104.2W TUE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL PULSE
TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS VANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFIES WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
WILL PULSE AND EXPAND TO ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY
SWELLS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THOSE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
AWAY FROM VANCE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 15-19, Seas NNW 4.6-5.2 ft @ 5sec
TONITE - N 15-19, Seas SW 4.5-5.2 ft @ 11sec
SATURDAY - N 17-21, Seas SW 4.2-5 ft @ 11sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - N 16-20, Seas WSW 4.7-6 ft @ 12sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - N 18-23, Seas WSW 4.1-5.3 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY - N 18-22, Seas WSW 3.3-4.1 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY - N 14-17, Seas NNW 3.3-4 ft @ 5sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas SW 3.9-6 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 14-17, Seas SSW 4.3-6.4 ft @ 16sec