Tehuantepec Forecast



December 10, 2018, 2:30 pm (UTC: -08:00)
Subject: Tehuantepec Forecast


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Check Tsunami Warnings US West Coast/Alaska--Update 1.1 days old
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

...GALE WARNING...
.WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO
12.5N95.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT...BUILDING TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 11N98W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 10N
BETWEEN 93W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 12N97W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N97W TO 10N99W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 108W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 01N BETWEEN 92W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.FROM 9.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 8.5N TO 11.5N E OF 89W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N128W TO 26N138W. FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 135W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N120W TO 20N125W TO 13N110W
TO 3.5S103W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. FROM 08N TO 25N W OF
131W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF A
LINE FROM 30N115W TO 25N114W TO 14N115W TO 3.5S108W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 20N TO 24N W OF 129W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 10 FT. W OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 19N122W TO
16N110W TO 0N121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 2145 UTC MON DEC 10...

.TROUGH 117W FROM 05N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW IN WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR
05N76W TO 04N83W TO 04N94W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ. ITCZ
THEN EXTENDS ALONG 06N103W TO 07N111W. ITCZ RESUMES W OF A
SURAFCE TROUGH NEAR 08N119W AND CONTINUES PAST 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N
W OF 124W.

.WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO
12.5N95.5W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO
45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT...BUILDING TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W TO 11N98W NE
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER AREA N OF 10N
BETWEEN 93W AND 102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 12N97W...INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO
40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 12N97W TO 10N99W NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
12 TO 16 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 108W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...INCLUDING GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 01N BETWEEN 92W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 95.5W...INCLUDING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN
8 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.


GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. THE LARGE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF UNTIL EARLY WED MORNING.
SEAS IN THE GALE WARNING AREA ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 20 FT BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUE, THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT BY WED EVENING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E.
SWELL FROM THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION, WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH TO 111W AND
02N LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WILL MERGE WITH A
LARGER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE SPECIFIC MARINE DETAILS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE WARNING IN ADVANCE. SEE ABOVE
PARAGRAPH FOR MORE DETAILS OVER NEXT 42 HOURS. LONGER TERM A NEW
GAP WIND EVENT FOR THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN EARLY FRI AND SHOULD
REACH STRONG GALE ON FRI AND WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE ON SAT
AFTERNOON.
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RATHER LARGE AREA OF 8 FT
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH MIXED SWELL WILL STRETCH FROM ABOUT 03N TO
13N BETWEEN 94W AND 110W AS A RESULT OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL MIXING WITH SHORTER PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL THAT PROPAGATE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO A SMALLER EXTENT
THOSE INDUCED BY THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG NOCTURNAL PULSING
NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN
EVEN LARGER AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWEST SWELL WHICH
WILL COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF AROUND 92W BY
WED.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 30-41, Seas NNW 11-17 feet @ 7sec
TONITE - N 29-39, Seas NNW 11-17 feet @ 8sec
TUESDAY - N 26-35, Seas NNW 10-15 feet @ 7sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - N 24-32, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
WEDNESDAY - N 24-32, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 7sec
THURSDAY - NNW 11-15, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - N 29-39, Seas NNW 9-15 feet @ 7sec
SATURDAY - N 26-36, Seas NNW 9-15 feet @ 7sec
SUNDAY - NNW 23-31, Seas NNW 8-12 feet @ 7sec