Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

September 1, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.8N 126.6W 950 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 01
MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND
270 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. WITHIN 24N124W TO
25N129W TO 20N133W TO 15N131W TO 14N126W TO 18N123W TO 24N124W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 21N120W TO 29N130W
TO 23N138W TO 18N140W TO 09N130W TO 13N120W TO 21N120W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 18.5N 130.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 70 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM IN NW QUADRANT...180 NM IN NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. WITHIN
22N127W TO 26N129W TO 25N133W TO 23N136W TO 17N134W TO 17N129W TO
22N127W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 21N124W TO
27N130W TO 24N140W TO 15N140W TO 12N133W TO 14N127W TO 21N124W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 19.3N 134.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. LITTLE CHANGE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER 240 NM IN NW QUADRANT...180 NM IN NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...AND 120 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.0 M. WITHIN
25N131W TO 26N135W TO 25N138W TO 20N140W TO 17N135W TO 20N131W
TO 25N131W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 20N128W
TO 25N130W TO 27N135W TO 27N140W TO 11N140W TO 13N132W TO 20N128W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.

...STORM WARNING...
.WITHIN 17N104W TO 19N106W TO 16N112W TO 11N111W TO 10N106W TO
13N104W TO 17N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES... SE WINDS
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 15N105W TO 18N106W TO 19N109W TO
15N113W TO 10N110W TO 10N107W TO 15N105W SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M. WITHIN 14N107W TO 15N108W TO 14N108W TO
13N108W TO 14N107W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 17N109W TO 17N110W TO 16N111W TO
15N111W TO 14N111W TO 15N109W TO 17N109W S WINDS 35 TO 45 KT.
SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M. WITHIN 16N105W TO 20N107W TO 19N114W TO
17N115W TO 10N111W TO 11N107W TO 16N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.33 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 18N111W TO 17N111W TO 18N111W TO
16N113W TO 15N112W TO 16N110W TO 18N111W S WINDS 40 TO 50 KT.
SEAS 5.5 TO 7.0 M. WITHIN 17N110W TO 18N111W TO 17N111W TO
16N111W TO 16N110W TO 17N110W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
6.5 TO 8.0 M. WITHIN 19N106W TO 21N110W TO 18N115W TO 12N113W TO
12N108W TO 16N106W TO 19N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 19N111W TO 20N112W TO 19N114W TO
18N115W TO 16N114W TO 17N111W TO 19N111W SE TO S WINDS 35 TO 50
KT. SEAS 6.5 TO 8.0 M. WITHIN 18N112W TO 19N113W TO 18N114W TO
17N113W TO 17N112W TO 18N112W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7.0 TO
8.5 M. WITHIN 21N107W TO 23N109W TO 22N115W TO 18N118W TO 12N113W
TO 16N106W TO 21N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.5 M.

A 1006 MB LOW AT 13N107W, DESIGNATED INVEST EP95, HAS PEAK WINDS
OF 25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT OVER THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES
BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT OVER PACIFIC WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 140 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 35 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
124W-129W. KARINA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ON
TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP95):
A 1006 MB LOW AT 13N107W, DESIGNATED INVEST EP95, IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING
WHILE IT MOVES STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN
104W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N-19N BETWEEN 98W-112W. PEAK WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 KT AND
LARGEST SEAS 11 FT. BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ZONE NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. HIGHEST WINDS
AND LARGEST SEAS SHOULD OCCUR WED AND THU. WHILE THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM MAY STAY OUTSIDE OF THE ZONES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
FRESH TO NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE SWELL ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THESE OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THU THROUGH SAT.
FOR THE FORECAST, INVEST EP95 IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING WHILE IT MOVES
STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ZONE NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS SHOULD OCCUR WED AND THU. WHILE
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY STAY OUTSIDE OF THE ZONES WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, FRESH TO NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS AND LARGE TO VERY
LARGE SWELL ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THESE OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THU
THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - S 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 13sec
TONITE - SSW 7-9, Seas S 0-6.2 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas S 0-6.2 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - ESE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-8.3 ft @ 11sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
THURSDAY - ESE 8-10, Seas SSW 0-8.2 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-8.6 ft @ 16sec
SATURDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-7.5 ft @ 15sec
SUNDAY - WSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7.4 ft @ 15sec
MONDAY - NE 10-13, Seas SSW 1.9-5.5 ft @ 14sec