Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
June 24, 2022, 9:30 pm (UTC: +00:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 17.1N 109.0W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC JUN
24 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...120
NM SE QUADRANT...75 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 18N104W TO 14N107W TO 16N111W TO
19N110W TO 21N107W TO 18N104W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 11N105W TO 10N110W TO 16N112W TO
22N110W TO 18N104W TO 11N105W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE CELIA NEAR 17.9N 110.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 12N108W TO
16N114W TO 19N114W TO 21N108W TO 19N105W TO 12N108W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 11N106W
TO 10N113W TO 19N116W TO 23N108W TO 18N105W TO 11N106W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 19.1N 113.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...80 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT
WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N110W TO 16N115W TO 20N117W
TO 23N113W TO 20N109W TO 17N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 10 TO 12 FT.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 14N106W TO 10N110W TO 19N120W TO
25N115W TO 22N106W TO 14N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM CELIA NEAR 20.2N 117.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL CELIA NEAR 21.5N 122.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CELIA NEAR 22.4N 126.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DUE TO A
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT THERE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW-N WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, STRONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, LOCALLY MODERATE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT OUTSIDE OF CELIA AND THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, EXCEPT 3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LARGE SWELL FROM CELIA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, GRADUALLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THIS SWELL SHOULD ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND REACH
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY SAT NIGHT. FRESH N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER TODAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE QUIET
IN THE WAKE OF CELIA, EXCEPT OFFSHORE OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA
WHERE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500
UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 25 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE OF CELIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 99W AND 110W. CELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND CELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. SWELLS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCPEP3.SHTML AND
FORECAST/ ADVISORY AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATCMEP3.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SW 13-18, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
TONITE - SSW 10-13, Seas SSW 5-9 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - SSE 15-20, Seas SSE 8-13 feet @ 9sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SSE 17-24, Seas SSE 9-15 feet @ 9sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - SSE 21-29, Seas S 10-15 feet @ 9sec
MONDAY - SE 12-17, Seas SSW 8-13 feet @ 9sec
TUESDAY - WNW 9-12, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 15sec
THURSDAY - SSW 7-10, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 16sec