Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
September 22, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 14.6N 101.8W 935 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP 22
MOVING ESE OR 115 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT
GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120
NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N100W TO
16N101W TO 17N103W TO 16N105W TO 12N104W TO 12N101W TO 15N100W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
18N102W TO 16N105W TO 14N106W TO 12N104W TO 12N101W TO 15N99W TO
18N102W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.0N 101.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT GUSTS 175 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210 NM
OF CENTER ...EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 12.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N99W TO 18N104W TO 17N105W TO 13N104W TO
12N102W TO 13N99W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N96W TO 19N104W TO 13N106W TO 10N104W
TO 09N100W TO 11N97W TO 15N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.4N 103.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 210
NM OF CENTER ...EXCEPT 180 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 14.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N100W TO 20N105W TO 18N107W TO 15N107W TO
13N105W TO 12N103W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N98W TO 21N108W TO 19N110W TO
16N110W TO 10N106W TO 10N100W TO 15N98W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 14.7N 130.4W 998 MB AT 0900 UTC SEP
22 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 70 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...75 NM SW QUADRANT AND 135 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N128W TO 20N132W TO 17N134W TO
13N132W TO 12N128W TO 15N126W TO 19N128W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N125W TO 20N128W TO
20N133W TO 18N135W TO 13N133W TO 11N127W TO 16N125W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.1N 130.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.3N 129.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 70 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 15 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 17N125W TO 19N131W TO 17N133W TO 12N131W TO 11N126W TO
14N124W TO 17N125W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 18N125W TO 22N130W TO 21N133W TO 16N133W
TO 11N131W TO 12N123W TO 18N125W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 15.8N 126.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS
...AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
18N120W TO 19N123W TO 18N130W TO 11N128W TO 11N123W TO 12N120W TO
18N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 17N130W TO 19N123W TO 21N130W TO 16N135W TO 10N129W TO
11N124W TO 17N130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
DATA, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4-7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 14.6N 101.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 15.0N 101.8W WED MORNING, 15.7N 102.5W WED
AFTERNOON, 16.4N 103.7W THU MORNING, 17.0N 105.2W THU AFTERNOON,
AND 17.4N 106.8W FRI MORNING. POLO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 18.2N 109.7W EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN
CONDITIONS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES WILL START TO
DETERIORATE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF POLO. LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL
STORM ODALYS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WATERS JUST BEYOND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUTER SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ODALYS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND MIX WITH THOSE FROM POLO TO CREATE VERY CONFUSED AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU, THEN PULSE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
IN A FEW DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK
OR THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - N 5-6, Seas SSE 0-2.2 ft @ 8sec
TONITE - ENE 2-2, Seas S 0.7-2.5 ft @ 8sec
WEDNESDAY - W 6-7, Seas S 0-2.8 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - W 6-7, Seas SSE 0.8-2.9 ft @ 11sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
THURSDAY - W 6-7, Seas SSE 0.8-2.9 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - W 4-5, Seas SSE 0-4.9 ft @ 14sec
SATURDAY - W 5-6, Seas S 0-7.9 ft @ 13sec
SUNDAY - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-10.4 ft @ 14sec
MONDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SW 0-6.9 ft @ 11sec