Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 2, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.5N 109.9W 950 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 02
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT
GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF
CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 22N107W TO 23N110W TO 20N113W TO 17N112W TO 16N110W TO
18N107W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBE ABOVE.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 24N107W TO 28N120W TO 17N115W TO 14N125W TO
08N109W TO 14N94W TO 24N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.5N 111.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS 130 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 110 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 180
NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N109W TO
23N113W TO 16N115W TO 11N117W TO 12N112W TO 17N107W TO 23N109W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN
24N107W TO 27N116W TO 24N119W TO 12N118W TO 08N109W TO 14N98W TO
24N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.8N 113.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE...270
NM SE QUADRANT...AND 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N107W TO 23N113W TO 21N117W TO 19N117W TO
12N113W TO 11N110W TO 19N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 23N107W TO 27N116W TO 20N121W TO
11N118W TO 09N111W TO 15N99W TO 23N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS,
ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 19.5N 109.9W AT 8 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 110.4W FRI MORNING, 19.5N
111.2W FRI EVENING, 19.6N 112.1W SAT MORNING, 19.8N 113.1W SAT
EVENING, 19.9N 114.0W SUN MORNING, AND 20.0N 115.0W SUN EVENING.
RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.2N
117.8W LATE MON. SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, ON SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL DIMINISH
EARLY ON FRI.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 109.9W AT 02/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 130 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. RACHEL IS MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER, A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FORWARD SPEED GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. SWELLS
GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - ESE 14-18, Seas SSW 0-14.6 ft @ 13sec
TONITE - ESE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-11 ft @ 12sec
SATURDAY - SE 12-15, Seas SW 0-10.9 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SE 11-14, Seas SW 0-8.3 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - SE 14-17, Seas SW 0-7.9 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - SE 9-11, Seas SW 0-7.3 ft @ 12sec
TUESDAY - WNW 7-9, Seas WSW 0-6 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 11-14, Seas WSW 1.2-5.8 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - NNW 11-14, Seas SSW 1.4-5.4 ft @ 16sec