Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

August 29, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM KARINA NEAR 14.2N 116.3W 988 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
29 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NE
QUADRANT...200 NM SE QUADRANT...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E SEMICIRCLE...120
NM SW QUADRANT AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N113W TO 20N119W TO 14N122W TO 07N118W TO 06N112W TO
11N107W TO 21N113W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 15.1N 117.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 16.2N 119.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 170 NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 360 NM NE
AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
20N114W TO 23N119W TO 21N124W TO 18N125W TO 11N122W TO 14N115W TO
20N114W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 20N108W TO 26N122W TO 22N126W TO 08N132W TO 09N115W TO
20N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE KARINA NEAR 17.3N 122.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 420 NM N
AND 210 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
21N117W TO 26N124W TO 23N131W TO 19N129W TO 14N124W TO 18N116W TO
21N117W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA
WITHIN 29N120W TO 24N134W TO 16N133W TO 10N125W TO 11N118W TO
20N113W TO 29N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.5N 134.2W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
29 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH
SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWEHRE WITHIN 11N128W TO 13N131W TO 14N133W TO 13N135W TO 08N134W TO
08N129W TO 11N128W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 12.7N 136.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM S SEMICIRCLE...30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N133W TO 15N135W TO 13N137W TO
12N138W TO 11N136W TO 12N133W TO 13N133W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM LOWELL NEAR 13.0N 140.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
CENTER WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS W OF
140W WITHIN 15N138W TO 15N140W TO 12N140W TO 12N138W TO 13N137W
TO 15N138W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA WITHIN 17N134W TO 18N136W TO 17N140W TO 11N140W TO 11N137W
TO 14N134W TO 17N134W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.

FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF KARINA ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN THIS AREA, AND
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SAT. FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 14N. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 29N PER EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM KARINA WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF CLARION ISLAND NEAR 15.1N 117.5W SAT
MORNING, AND WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO THE
WATERS AROUND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR BEYOND 180 NM THROUGH LATE SAT. KARINA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
EARLY SUN WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THERE AT TIMES, THEN PULSING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.

TROPICAL STORM KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 116.3W AT 29/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 31 FT (9.5 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM
NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD TURN. KARINA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.8-5.3 ft @ 17sec
TONITE - SW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-6 ft @ 15sec
SUNDAY - SW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.4 ft @ 14sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - WSW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 14sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
MONDAY - WSW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - WNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - W 5-6, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
THURSDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-6.4 ft @ 10sec
FRIDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-6.8 ft @ 11sec