Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 8, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 21.4N 122.9W 982 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 08
MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 24N121W TO 25N123W TO 23N126W TO 19N124W TO 20N121W TO
22N120W TO 24N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 26N119W TO 28N124W TO 25N130W TO 20N131W
TO 15N123W TO 16N117W TO 26N119W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 21.8N 123.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.3N 124.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT...60 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...120 NM SE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 24N122W TO 26N126W TO 24N128W TO
22N127W TO 21N126W TO 21N123W TO 24N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 25N120W TO 30N124W TO
30N137W TO 22N136W TO 18N128W TO 19N121W TO 25N120W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 23.3N 123.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM IN NE
QUADRANT AND 60 NM IN SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 24N122W TO 26N127W TO 25N131W TO 24N131W TO 20N126W TO
21N123W TO 24N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 30N126W TO 30N135W TO 22N135W TO 18N131W TO
19N122W TO 23N121W TO 30N126W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 15.6N 102.5W 1002 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT
08 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 4.0
M WITHIN 0 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 60 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 17N101W TO 18N102W TO 17N103W TO 16N103W TO 16N101W TO
17N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
16N99W TO 18N102W TO 16N103W TO 14N102W TO 14N101W TO 15N99W TO
16N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.1N 104.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE
QUADRANT AND 30 NM SW QUADRANT. WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 17N101W TO 18N104W TO 17N106W TO 14N106W TO 13N105W TO
14N102W TO 17N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 16N100W TO 18N104W TO 15N107W TO 11N104W
TO 11N100W TO 16N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.9N 105.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.0
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 17N101W TO 19N107W TO 17N109W TO 13N106W TO
12N104W TO 15N101W TO 17N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 17N100W TO 22N107W TO 18N111W TO
14N110W TO 10N106W TO 11N99W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 122.9W AT 08/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 28 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 23N AND
BETWEEN 121W TO 124W. THE WNW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. RACHEL IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE
MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS
PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
21.8N 123.7W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 22.3N 124.8W THU EVENING,
22.6N 124.9W FRI MORNING, 23.3N 123.5W FRI EVENING, 24.9N 120.9W
SAT MORNING, AND 28.0N 118.2W SAT EVENING. RACHEL SHOULD REACH
THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE ON SAT AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY SUN JUST SOUTH OF THE CALIFORNIA-
MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE INLAND TO NEAR 36.4N 113.0W LATE SUN.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL SLOWLY BE TRAVERSING AND IMPACTING THE
OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
SIMON WILL MOVE TO 15.8N 103.6W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.1N 104.6W THU EVENING, 16.4N 105.3W FRI
MORNING, 16.9N 105.5W FRI EVENING, 17.8N 105.6W SAT MORNING, AND
18.9N 105.5W SAT EVENING. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO THE 21.6N 105.8W LATE SUN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 21.4N 122.9W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 982 MB. RACHEL WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
21.8N 123.7W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 22.3N 124.8W THU EVENING, 22.6N
124.9W FRI MORNING, 23.3N 123.5W FRI EVENING, 24.9N 120.9W SAT
MORNING. RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE ON SAT AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL. ADDITIONALLY,
THE LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
WATERS STARTING FRI AND CONTINUE INTO SUN.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - NNW 8-10, Seas WSW 1.1-4.4 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - W 4-5, Seas SSW 1.1-4.2 ft @ 20sec
FRIDAY - NW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.3 ft @ 19sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 18sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - SSW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSE 0-9 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - SE 42-53, Seas S 0-15.6 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SSE 35-44, Seas SSW 16.2-16.9 ft @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 15sec