Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

September 25, 2026, 2:01 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.1N 108.5W 900 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 25
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT
GUSTS 190 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...210 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
18N104W TO 20N106W TO 20N108W TO 18N111W TO 16N111W TO 15N107W TO
18N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 17N102W TO 22N108W
TO 23N112W TO 17N114W TO 09N109W TO 11N104W TO
17N102W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.8N 111.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. LITTLE CHANGE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
20N110W TO 20N113W TO 17N114W TO 15N112W TO 14N111W TO 17N108W TO
20N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 17N105W TO 21N106W TO 27N117W TO 11N117W TO 10N106W
TO 17N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND WITHIN 60 NM OF
SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 20.4N 113.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITH 150 NM ALL QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 12.0 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 20N110W TO 23N112W TO 23N115W TO 20N116W TO
18N116W TO 17N113W TO 20N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 22N108W TO 27N117W TO 17N118W TO
12N116W TO 11N110W TO 14N107W TO 22N108W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM
OF SHORE......WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 17.9N 123.7W 946 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 25
MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT
GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...100 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 110 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER WITH
SEAS TO 11.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N121W TO 21N126W TO 19N127W
TO 16N126W TO 13N123W TO 13N122W TO 19N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 17N116W TO 23N121W
TO 24N128W TO 18N135W TO 10N133W TO 10N122W TO 17N116W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 19.5N 123.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH 180 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 21N121W TO 22N123W TO 22N126W TO 19N127W TO
17N125W TO 17N123W TO 21N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 27N120W TO 24N129W TO 18N132W TO
10N125W TO 10N120W TO 27N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 22.1N 123.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITH 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND
150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHWERE...WITHIN
23N122W TO 25N124W TO 25N126W TO 22N126W TO 20N125W TO 20N122W TO
23N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 30N120W TO 30N129W TO 22N139W TO 21N133W TO 09N127W
TO 09N121W TO 30N120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.

AWAY FROM POLO, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE, SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO AS INDICATED IN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
ALTIMETER DATA PASSES.
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 108.5W, OR ABOUT 290
NM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES, MEXICO, AT 25/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. PEAK SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 44 FT (13.5 M). POLO IS REVEALING A CLEAR
EYE FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES (COLDER THAN -75 DEGREE CELSIUS SURROUNDS THE
EYE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER. POLO IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT MOTION TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON SAT AND NORTH ON
SUN. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON MON. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY SAT. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS,
AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 17.3N
108.9W THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TO 17.6N 110.7W LATE TONIGHT, TO NEAR 18.5N 112.2W SAT AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT, TO NEAR 20.0N
113.2W LATE SAT NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS
135 KT, TO NEAR 21.7N 113.7W SUN AFTERNOON, AND TO NEAR 23.3N
113.5W LATE SUN NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS
115 KT. POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 26.4N 111.2W LATE MON
NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. HURRICANE
ODALYS IS NEAR 17.6N 124.0W, OR ABOUT 850 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT,
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. ODALYS WILL MOVE TO NEAR
18.0N 123.7W THIS AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 18.9N 123.5W LATE TONIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT, TO NEAR 19.7N 123.5W SAT
AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT, THEN
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.7N 123.5W LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. ODALYS IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR 21.9N 123.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND NEAR 22.5N
122.1W LATE SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS OF VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - WNW 5-6, Seas SSE 0-7.4 ft @ 12sec
TONITE - WSW 3-4, Seas S 0-7.8 ft @ 12sec
SATURDAY - SSE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-9.2 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - SSE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-9.2 ft @ 13sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - SSE 9-11, Seas SSW 0-9.2 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - SW 9-11, Seas WSW 0-7.3 ft @ 11sec
TUESDAY - SW 10-13, Seas WSW 0-6.5 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - N 10-12, Seas WNW 0-4.8 ft @ 10sec
THURSDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSE 0-7.1 ft @ 13sec