Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
October 14, 2026, 2:01 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 11.2N 97.0W 1004 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT
14 MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 45
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 13N95W TO
13N96W TO 13N98W TO 11N98W TO 10N97W TO 11N96W TO 13N95W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 12N95W TO
14N96W TO 13N99W TO 11N100W TO 09N98W TO 09N97W TO 12N95W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 12.6N 100.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...25 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 30
NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15N98W TO 15N99W TO 13N102W TO
11N101W TO 11N99W TO 12N98W TO 15N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 15N98W TO 15N100W TO
14N103W TO 11N103W TO 09N100W TO 10N98W TO 15N98W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.3N 101.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT...120
NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 60 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N102W TO 16N103W TO
14N104W TO 12N102W TO 12N100W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 16N98W TO 18N102W TO
16N106W TO 08N107W TO 06N101W TO 08N97W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.1N 107.6W 965 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 14
MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS
115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS
4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE
WITH SEAS TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N107W TO 21N107W TO
21N108W TO 20N108W TO 19N108W TO 20N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N109W TO
21N110W TO 19N110W TO 19N107W TO 20N106W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.6N 108.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO
5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N108W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN
21N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N110W TO 20N110W TO 19N108W TO 20N107W TO
21N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.7N 108.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH SEAS TO
5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W
TO 19N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 20N106W TO 22N108W TO 21N109W TO
19N110W TO 18N109W TO 18N107W TO 20N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 31N115W TO 30N115W TO
29N114W TO 30N112W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 29N112W TO 31N113W TO 32N114W TO
30N114W TO 26N111W TO 27N109W TO 29N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30N112W TO 31N113W TO 32N115W TO
30N114W TO 27N112W TO 28N111W TO 30N112W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH WINDS EXTEND ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
TRUDY.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 107.6W AT 14/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN
106W AND 109W. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE, BUT HAS STARTED
TO RE INTENSIFY. SIMON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SIMON COULD BE NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON
THURSDAY, WHERE A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NAYARIT, AND SINALOA. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 97.0W AT 14/0300
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 FT ACROSS THE N
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 5N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. THE INITIAL
MOTION OF TRUDY IS NORTHWESTWARD, AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR. TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND
STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER
THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 20.1N 107.6W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95
KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 107.8W WED MORNING, 19.6N 108.2W WED
EVENING, 18.9N 108.5W THU MORNING, 19.7N 108.1W THU EVENING,
21.0N 108.0W FRI MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
22.3N 108.8W FRI EVENING. SIMON WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24.1N 109.7W LATE SAT. TROPICAL STORM TRUDY
IS NEAR 11.2N 97.0W AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 11.8N
98.6W WED MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 12.6N 100.0W
WED EVENING, 13.5N 100.9W THU MORNING, 14.3N 101.5W THU EVENING,
15.2N 101.9W FRI MORNING, AND 16.3N 102.5W FRI EVENING. TRUDY
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.0N 104.4W
LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY WED. A GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - N 10-13, Seas SSW 0-6.7 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 2.3-5.9 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 13-16, Seas SSW 2.3-5.9 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - N 9-11, Seas SSW 2.4-5.4 ft @ 20sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
FRIDAY - N 9-11, Seas SSW 2.4-5.4 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - SE 17-21, Seas SSW 10.3-11.5 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - S 21-26, Seas SSW 9.3-10.5 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.5 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.2 ft @ 14sec