Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
September 28, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 24.2N 113.5W 958 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 28
MOVING NE OR 035 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT
GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 24N111W TO
26N112W TO 25N115W TO 22N116W TO 20N115W TO 22N112W TO
24N111W...INCLUDING WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 22N109W TO 30N116W
TO 25N116W TO 30N118W TO 19N119W TO 17N114W TO
22N109W...INCLUDING SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO OVER WATER NEAR 27.4N 111.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...40 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60
NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 27N109W TO
27N111W TO 28N111W TO 28N112W TO 24N110W TO 25N109W TO
27N109W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL POLO NEAR 29.9N 108.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS...CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN
2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS
THAN 2.5 M.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 13.8N 101.2W 999 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP
28 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 140 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...180 NM NE QUADRANT
AND 75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE....WITHIN
15N96W TO 17N102W TO 12N104W TO 08N100W TO 10N96W TO 15N96W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 15.5N 104.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 160 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...110 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 130 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO
6.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 17N100W TO 19N105W TO 15N107W TO
10N106W TO 10N102W TO 14N100W TO 17N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N98W TO 20N106W TO
18N108W TO 10N107W TO 09N100W TO 12N97W TO 16N98W...INCLUDING
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 17.8N 107.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 160 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...110 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO
8.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 15N101W TO 20N106W TO 17N110W TO
13N108W TO 10N111W TO 10N105W TO 15N101W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 17N99W TO 23N108W TO 23N112W TO 18N114W TO 09N107W
TO 10N102W TO 17N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO OVER WATER NEAR 27.4N 111.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...40 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60
NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER ALL
QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 27N109W TO
27N111W TO 28N111W TO 28N112W TO 24N110W TO 25N109W TO
27N109W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
ARE OFFSHORE THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS REMAIN OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF SECTIONS.
HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 113.5W AT 28/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 38 FT (11.5 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. POLO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE INLAND IN SOUTHERN
SONORA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE. POLO IS A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. POLO IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR LATE TODAY, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE
WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF
SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SSW 11-14, Seas WSW 0-6.6 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - SSW 12-15, Seas WSW 0-6.3 ft @ 11sec
TUESDAY - SSW 12-15, Seas WSW 0-6.3 ft @ 11sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SSW 5-6, Seas S 0-4.5 ft @ 13sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
WEDNESDAY - SSW 5-6, Seas S 0-4.5 ft @ 13sec
THURSDAY - NNE 6-8, Seas S 0-11.5 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - SSE 8-10, Seas S 0-10.6 ft @ 14sec
SATURDAY - ESE 41-51, Seas SSW 0-11.5 ft @ 11sec
SUNDAY - S 24-30, Seas SSW 0-11.8 ft @ 12sec