Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

July 20, 2017, 2:30 am (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast

Questions/Comments visit http://svsarana.com

This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE FERNANDA NEAR 18.2N 137.2W 987 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 20
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 70 NM
S SEMICIRCLES. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE...120 NM
SE... 150 NM SW AND 240 NM NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 31 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER EPAC BOUNDED BY
LINE FROM 27N140W TO 30N127W TO 14N130W TO 09N140W TO 27N140W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 18.6N 138.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE...70 NM SE...50 NM SW AND 70 NW NW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NW AND
150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT. REMAINDER EPAC BOUNDED BY LINE FROM 26N140W TO 23N132W TO
16N134W TO 13N140W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 19.0N 140.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE AND 40 NM SW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND
150 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11
FT. REMAINDER EPAC BOUNDED BY LINE FROM 26N140W TO 24N133W TO
13N137W TO 13N140W TO 26N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 11 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA NEAR 20.2N 143.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...50 NM NE AND 30 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FORECAST WATERS W OF
LINE FROM 25N139W TO 16N140W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 21.5N
146.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 22.5N
151.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW FERNANDA NEAR 23.5N
156.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.1N 113.6W 1005 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL
20 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM NE AND 40
NM NW QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...75 NM NE AND 45 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 17 FT.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT. REMAINDER EPAC WITHIN 270 NM N AND 390 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED
SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 14.8N 117.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...60 NM NE AND 30 NM SW
QUADRANTS. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
REMAINDER EPAC WITHIN 240 NM N AND 330 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF
CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.6N 121.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE AND 50 NM SW QUADRANTS.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLES
WITH SEAS TO 23 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC WITHIN 300 NM N AND 420 NM
S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE GREG NEAR 15.7N 126.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 15.3N 131.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM GREG NEAR 15.5N 135.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 13.9N 122.2W 1009 MB AT 0300
UTC JUL 20 MOVING W SW OR 245 DEG AT 5 KT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
GUSTS 35 KT WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 360 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 12.7N 123.3W.
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF
CENTER. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N AND 240 NM S
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EIGHT-E NEAR 11.9N
123.6W. SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS
8 TO 11 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.

.S OF LINE FROM 03.4N83W TO 06N86W TO 15N96W TO 00N123W...EXCEPT
WITHIN 300 NM N OF GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SW SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO
14N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO
25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO
12N95W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 10 FT IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL.
.42 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.

.06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 11.5N86W TO
09N90W... INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N90W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N90W TO 09N91W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 05N89W TO 05N98W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
11N106W 1010 MB. WITHIN 90 NM SE QUADRANT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND
110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N111W 1008 MB. WITHIN 150 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM SE
QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210
NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN
MIXED SWELL.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

CONVECTION VALID AT 0215 UTC THU JUL 20...

HURRICANE FERNANDA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM GREG...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 11N112W TO 16N116W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
14N109W TO 09N109W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM E AND WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N TO 16N ALONG 102W...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG S OF 15N WITHIN 150 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N88W TO 09N92W TO TROPICAL WAVE
AT 11N102W TO 13N109W...RESUMES FROM 12N134W TO 09N140W.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 06N82W TO 11N100W...FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 103W AND
110W... WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N117W AND 10N124W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM 16N130W TO 10N137W.

PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM GREG SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
MEANDERING E TO W FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THU. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT IN A MIX OF
LONG PERIOD NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL. GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.

SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - W 4-6, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
TONITE - WSW 5-7, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 14sec
FRIDAY - S 4-6, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SW 7-9, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 13sec

LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SATURDAY - SW 7-10, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 12sec
SUNDAY - WSW 10-14, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - WSW 8-10, Seas S 3-6 feet @ 11sec
TUESDAY - WSW 6-9, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - WSW 7-9, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 9sec