Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
August 23, 2019, 8:30 pm (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Sea of Cortez Southern Crossing Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 20.5N 115.5W 996 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG 24
MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE
QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 40 NM
NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210
NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMIRCIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND FROM 12N TO 24N
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IVO NEAR 23.3N 116.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN
180 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 150 NM SE AND 90 NM NW SEMIRCIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM 18N TO 27N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO NEAR 25.1N 117.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT FROM
22N TO 28N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IVO NEAR 26.6N
118.3W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.
.72 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROP/REMNT LOW IVO NEAR 28.6N 118.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 30 KT.
.96 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26.5N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST N OF 30N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8
FT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST N OF 30N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
CONVECTION VALID AT 0300 UTC SAT AUG 24...
.TROPICAL STORM IVO...NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
150 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
18N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.
.SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 110.5W
AND 112.5W
.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 05N TO 17N...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 06N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08.5N75.5W TO 09N90W TO 10N100W TO
13N110W, THEN RESUMES WEST OF T.S. IVO FROM 14N120W TO 12N130W
TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 110W AND 112W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 129W AND
137W.
$$
.GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26.5N SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS, FORECAST TO REACH 25 TO
30 KT TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THIS AREA BY SAT, WHICH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. LOOKING AHEAD,
NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH SPEEDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB LOCATED NEAR 31N143W MAINTAINS A BROAD
RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 122W.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH SW TO W WINDS PERSISTS SOUTH OF IVO AND THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER
ASSOCIATED WITH IVO COVER THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 12N TO 23N
BETWEEN 105W AND 110W, AND FROM 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W,
INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE AERIAL
EXTENT OF THESE HIGH SEAS WILL SHRINK AS IVO WEAKENS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING (along 23N)
TODAY - SE 12-16, Seas SW 7-12 feet @ 16sec
TONITE - ESE 5-7, Seas SW 8-12 feet @ 15sec
SATURDAY - WNW 8-12, Seas SW 7-11 feet @ 10sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WNW 9-12, Seas SW 6-10 feet @ 10sec
LONG-TERM SOUTHERN CROSSING
SUNDAY - NW 13-18, Seas SW 5-9 feet @ 9sec
MONDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 12sec
TUESDAY - SSW 8-11, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
WEDNESDAY - SE 15-21, Seas S 4-7 feet @ 17sec
THURSDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec