Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 3, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.4N 111.5W 966 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 03
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 130 NM N SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...180 NM SW QUADRANT AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 11.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 19N108W TO 22N112W TO 20N114W
TO 17N113W TO 13N115W TO 14N112W TO 19N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 25N108W TO 27N118W TO
11N119W TO 10N110W TO 12N101W TO 16N102W TO 25N108W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 19.8N 112.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM E AND 180 NM E SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N109W TO 23N112W TO 22N114W TO 19N116W TO
16N114W TO 18N109W TO 23N109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 24N108W TO 27N119W TO 20N122W TO
10N118W TO 09N109W TO 13N102W TO 24N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.2N 114.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM
SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 21N111W TO 23N114W TO 22N117W TO 20N118W TO 17N117W TO
18N113W TO 21N111W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 23N109W TO 26N115W TO 23N121W TO 17N120W TO
09N114W TO 11N106W TO 23N109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY
RACHEL ARE IMPACTING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST OF GUERRERO.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 19.4N 111.5W AT 8 PM PDT,
AND IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB.
RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 19.5N 112.1W SAT MORNING, 19.8N 112.9W SAT
EVENING, 20.1N 113.8W SUN MORNING, 20.2N 114.8W SUN EVENING,
20.4N 116.1W MON MORNING, AND 20.7N 117.7W MON EVENING. RACHEL
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.2N 121.1W
LATE TUE. SEAS GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, THROUGH AT LEAST MON. ROUGH SEAS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH SUN, THEN
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 111.5W AT 03/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N
BETWEEN 109W AND 120W. RACHEL IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST,
WITH THE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. SWELLS
GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSE 12-15, Seas WSW 0-6.8 ft @ 13sec
TONITE - S 17-21, Seas WSW 0-5.5 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - S 17-21, Seas WSW 0-5.5 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - S 7-9, Seas WSW 0-5.2 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
MONDAY - S 7-9, Seas WSW 0-5.2 ft @ 12sec
TUESDAY - NW 10-12, Seas WSW 1.4-4.4 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 13-16, Seas WSW 2.4-4.4 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - NW 10-12, Seas WSW 1.9-4 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 19sec