Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 12, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.1N 106.5W 962 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 12
MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 50 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...45 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 5.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N106W TO 21N107W TO 20N107W TO 19N107W
TO 20N106W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 19N105W
TO 21N106W TO 20N110W TO 17N106W TO 17N103W TO 19N105W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST URRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.9N 107.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 40 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM MILES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 22N107W TO 21N108W TO 20N108W TO 21N107W TO
22N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W
TO 21N107W TO 21N106W TO 22N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN SE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 21.6N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER. SEAS TO 4 M WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N107W TO 22N108W TO 21N108W TO 21N107W TO 22N107W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
23N107W TO 23N107.5W TO 22.5N107.5W TO 22N107.5W TO 22N107W TO
22.5N106.5W TO 23N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 M IN SE TO S
SWELL.
.WITHIN 31N113.5W TO 31N114W TO 31N114.5W TO 30.5N114.5W TO
30.5N113.5W TO 31N113.5W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... S
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
962 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO
22N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SIMON IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND ACROSS SINALOA ON THU. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, WHICH COULD FURTHER
DISRUPT THE HURRICANE'S STRUCTURE ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. SIMON
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE STATES OF COLIMA, JALISCO, NAYARIT AND SINALOA THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY ON- GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ALONG 31.5N SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA NORTE TO BEYOND 24.5N120W,
AND HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY IN RECENT HOURS. FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR SEAS TO 5 FT IN S SWELL FROM SIMON ACROSS
THE ENTRANCE. GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SW TO W WINDS ARE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINING BAJA WATERS, BECOMING
MODERATE NW SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW
SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, WHILE SEAS
GENERATED FROM SIMON ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER
SOUTH OF BAJA BETWEEN 110W AND THE SW MEXICAN COAST. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND REMAIN JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST, REACHING NEAR
20.4N 106.8W THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR 20.9N 107.3W TUE MORNING, NEAR
21.3N 107.7W TUE AFTERNOON, NEAR 21.6N 107.7W WED MORNING, NEAR
22.2N 107.4W WED AFTERNOON, AND INLAND NEAR 24.1N 106.3W FRI
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND START TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TODAY. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL LINGERING WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA,
ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 18sec
TONITE - SW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-5.5 ft @ 17sec
TUESDAY - S 6-7, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - SW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.4 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - N 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.2 ft @ 15sec
FRIDAY - N 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.1 ft @ 14sec
SATURDAY - NE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.8 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 16sec