Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 8, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
Questions/Comments visit https://svsarana.com
This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 15.4N 103.3W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 08
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...40 NM SE
QUADRANT...30 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
75 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 100.5W AND 104W NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 15.5N 104.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.1N 104.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SE QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW QUADRANT.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER...90 NM NW
AND 60 NM SW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
102W AND 108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.6N 105.1W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...100 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 102 AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 98W AND 111W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.1N 124.2W 985 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 08
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS
75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 100
NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...210 NM NE QUADRANT AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
8.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 28N
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.7N 125.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...40 NM SE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM E AND 120 NM W
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 122W AND 128W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 121W AND 137W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 25.1N 121.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 50 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N
BETWEEN 118W AND 127W...AND N OF 18N W OF 127W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 124.2W AT 08/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT DAY, BEFORE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, OCCURS ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON LATE SATURDAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT RACHEL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL
BUILD ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. INTERESTS IN EXTREME
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RACHEL.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS
AREA BY TONIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 15.5N 104.1W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 16.1N 104.9W
FRI MORNING, 16.9N 105.1W FRI EVENING, 17.6N 105.1W SAT MORNING,
18.7N 105.1W SAT EVENING, AND INLAND TO 19.7N 105.1W SUN MORNING.
SIMON WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 22.2N 105.6W EARLY MON. MEANWHILE,
RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 22.1N 124.3W THIS AFTERNOON, 22.5N 125.0W FRI
MORNING, 22.9N 124.7W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.0N 122.8W SAT MORNING.
RACHEL SHOULD REACH THE OFFSHORE ZONES OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE ON SAT AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NE. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY SUN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER AND INLAND OVER EARLY MON.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 6-8, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - E 2-2, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 20sec
FRIDAY - S 6-8, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 19sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 18sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 18sec
SUNDAY - SSW 9-11, Seas S 0-8.4 ft @ 13sec
MONDAY - S 26-33, Seas SSW 0-11.4 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - SSW 14-17, Seas SSW 0-9.2 ft @ 17sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 15sec