Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 4, 2026, 2:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.0N 112.8W 970 MB AT 0300 UTC OCT 04
MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM W
SEMICIRCLE...130 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4
M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...210 NM SE QUADRANT AND
150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N110W TO
22N111W TO 22N114W TO 20N115W TO 17N114W TO 19N111W TO 21N110W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN
23N107W TO 28N115W TO 19N123W TO 10N117W TO 09N111W TO 13N105W TO
23N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.5N 114.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...110 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 22N111W TO 23N115W TO 20N117W TO 18N116W TO
18N114W TO 19N111W TO 22N111W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED
ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 21N107W TO 27N115W TO 25N122W TO
21N122W TO 10N114W TO 13N106W TO 21N107W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 117.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW
QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N113W TO 24N115W
TO 23N119W TO 19N121W TO 17N118W TO 18N116W TO 21N113W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. REMAINDER AREA WITHIN 24N111W TO
27N119W TO 25N123W TO 18N123W TO 11N113W TO 13N109W TO 24N111W
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS IMPACTED BY HURRICANE RACHEL, GENTLE
MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL,
PREVAIL OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY RACHEL ARE IMPACTING THE ENTRANCE
TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
WEST OF 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE RACHEL IS NEAR 20.0N 112.8W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 970 MB. RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.3N 113.5W SUN MORNING,
20.5N 114.7W SUN EVENING, 20.6N 116.1W MON MORNING, 20.6N 117.9W
MON EVENING, 20.6N 119.5W TUE MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 20.7N 121.1W TUE EVENING. RACHEL WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.6N 124.2W LATE WED. SEAS
GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA, THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH SUN, THEN
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 112.8W AT 04/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 36 FT (11 M). NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. RACHEL IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RACHEL IS
FORECAST TO START A WEAKENING TREND. SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - S 14-17, Seas WSW 4-5 ft @ 11sec
TONITE - S 12-15, Seas WSW 3.9-4.9 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY - S 12-15, Seas WSW 3.9-4.9 ft @ 11sec
MONDAY NIGHT - W 3-4, Seas WSW 0-3.9 ft @ 11sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TUESDAY - W 4-5, Seas WSW 0-3.7 ft @ 12sec
WEDNESDAY - WNW 6-8, Seas WSW 0-3.3 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas WSW 1.2-3.6 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - WNW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.8 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.7 ft @ 17sec