Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 10, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.4N 104.8W 938 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10 MOVING
N OR 350 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 50 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 150
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 101 AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 101W AND 112W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.1N 105.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 60 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W
WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 101W AND 107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON INLAND NEAR 21.7N 105.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 40 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 30 NM SW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W WITH SEAS TO 7.0 M.
ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N
TO 21N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 25.5N 119.6W 992 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 10
MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS
60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE...130 NM
SE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE...60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 7.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W WINDS 20
TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 27N
BETWEEN 117W AND 128W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL RACHEL N OF AREA NEAR 33.0N 115.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT...140 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 30 NM NW QUADRANT. OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 114W AND 118W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4.0 TO 4.5 M IN
MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 112W
AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL RACHEL NEAR 38.5N 112.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.
.12 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.18 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 27N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 2.5 M N OF 30N.
.24 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M N OF 30N.
.36 HOUR FORECAST GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 18.1N 105.0W THIS
EVENING, 19.1N 105.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 20.4N 105.4W SUN
EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N
105.4W MON MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NEAR 23.0N 105.5W MON EVENING, AND DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE,
WILL MOVE TO 28.2N 117.5W THIS EVENING, INLAND TO 33.0N 115.3W
SUN MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
38.5N 112.5W SUN EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS RACHEL MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS ON SUN. FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS, IN
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL, WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FORECAST TO
REACH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N140W ON MON
WHILE DISSIPATING. LARGE SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 105W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO
60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 21 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 30N E OF 121W. A NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY AND
MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT. RACHEL'S POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THIS EVENING. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
RACHEL MOVES INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
BY SUNDAY MORNING. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. WAVES GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE WAVES, COMBINED WITH AN
INCOMING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL, WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION
ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGHEST
WAVES COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDES AND WATER LEVELS THAT ARE
ALREADY RUNNING WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS. MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - E 6-8, Seas S 0-5.6 ft @ 12sec
TONITE - SE 8-10, Seas S 0-6.3 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - SSE 11-14, Seas S 0-6.5 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY NIGHT - SSE 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
MONDAY - SSE 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.3 ft @ 19sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.8 ft @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.2 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 1.5-3.4 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 1.4-3.4 ft @ 14sec