Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
September 9, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NEAR 15.7N 115.2W 1006 MB AT 2100
UTC SEP 09 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 15.9N 117.1W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 15.8N 119.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...40 NM NE QUADRANT AND 20 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER
WITH SEAS TO 4.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM
SE QUADRANT OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FOURTEEN-E NEAR 15.6N 124.2W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NE QUADRANT...30 NM SE QUADRANT...20 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 50 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM N
AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 5.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM
N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4
M.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY
CLARION ISLAND. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES FRESH TO
STRONG N GAP WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
NEAR 14N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE WITH THESE WINDS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING BETWEEN
THE PENINSULA AND THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE, WHICH IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30.5N129.5W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE TO S WINDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT, HIGHEST NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE
GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS JUST AHEAD THE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ALONG 101W.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH YET ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE BASIN TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. IT IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 10 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE E OF CENTER FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF T.D. FOURTEEN-E WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT CLARION ISLAND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ON
THU AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS TO THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY
FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.9N 117.1W THU MORNING, MOVE TO 15.8N
119.6W THU AFTERNOON, 15.7N 122.0W FRI MORNING, 15.6N 124.2W FRI
AFTERNOON, 15.9N 126.1W SAT MORNING, AND STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.2N 127.8W SAT AFTERNOON. FOURTEEN-E WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.4N 130.9W SUN
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NW 8-10, Seas SW 0-3.8 ft @ 18sec
TONITE - SE 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.9 ft @ 18sec
THURSDAY - SE 6-8, Seas SW 0-3.9 ft @ 18sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - ESE 2-2, Seas SW 0-3.4 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
FRIDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 15sec
SATURDAY - WSW 6-7, Seas SW 1.1-2.8 ft @ 14sec
SUNDAY - SSE 7-9, Seas SW 0-2.8 ft @ 14sec
MONDAY - ENE 9-11, Seas SW 0-2.9 ft @ 18sec
TUESDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 1-2.8 ft @ 17sec