Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 9, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 16.0N 104.7W 973 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 09 MOVING
NW OR 325 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM E SEMICIRCLE...50 NM SW
QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 75 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
8.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 19N
BETWEEN 100W AND 109W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 17.2N 104.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM
NE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 102
AND 109W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 11N TO 21N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.4N 105.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 60 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER FROM 17N TO 20N E OF 107W WITH SEAS TO
9.0 M. ELSEWHERE OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 21N E OF 108W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N
TO 23N BETWEEN 102W AND 111W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M
IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 22.8N 124.6W 994 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 09
MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55
KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 70 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S
SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE AND SW
QUADRANTS...150 NM NW QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO
6.0 M. ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W WINDS 20 TO
33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N TO 30N
BETWEEN 121W AND 137W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL NEAR 25.1N 121.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 80 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...70 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 90 NM
OF CENTER EXCEPT 180 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE
FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO
4.0 M. REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 118W AND
128W...AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 128W AND 138W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL INLAND N OF AREA NEAR 33.3N
116.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SE QUADRANT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. N OF 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS N OF 29N BETWEEN
115W AND 117W. N OF A LINE FROM 20N120W TO 23N131W TO 26N140W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL INLAND N OF AREA NEAR 33.3N
116.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE...70 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SE QUADRANT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M. N OF 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4 M IN MIXED SWELL...HIGHEST SEAS N OF 29N BETWEEN
115W AND 117W. N OF A LINE FROM 20N120W TO 23N131W TO 26N140W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 104.8W THIS
EVENING, 17.2N 104.9W SAT MORNING, 18.2N 105.0W SAT EVENING,
19.4N 105.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 20.7N 105.4W SUN EVENING, AND
21.9N 105.6W MON MORNING. SIMON WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
WHILE MOVING INLAND NEAR 23.6N 106.2W EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 23.4N 123.6W THIS EVENING,
25.1N 121.0W SAT MORNING, 28.5N 118.1W SAT EVENING, INLAND TO
33.3N 116.0W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 38.1N 114.0W SUN EVENING, AND
DISSIPATE MON MORNING. EXPECTED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS RACHEL
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 124.6W AT 09/1500
UTC, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. RACHEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A GENERAL NORTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST MOTION, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
WITH RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. RACHEL WILL BRING 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
SWELLS PARTLY GENERATED BY RACHEL WILL BUILD ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - WSW 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 19sec
TONITE - SW 3-4, Seas SSW 1.1-4.8 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - NNW 6-7, Seas S 0-8.2 ft @ 13sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - NNE 14-17, Seas S 0-9 ft @ 14sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SUNDAY - NW 41-51, Seas SSW 0-15 ft @ 15sec
MONDAY - SSW 13-16, Seas SW 18.7-18.7 ft @ 14sec
TUESDAY - NNW 6-8, Seas SSW 1.6-5.1 ft @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.5 ft @ 15sec
THURSDAY - N 6-8, Seas SSW 1.4-3.5 ft @ 15sec