Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 13, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 9.8N 96.5W 1006 MB AT
1500 UTC OCT 13 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 12N95W TO 12N97W TO 10N97W TO 10N96W
TO 10N95W TO 12N95W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN S TO
SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 12N93W TO 14N95W TO 12N98W TO 08N99W
TO 06N97W TO 10N93W TO 12N93W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO
3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 10.5N 97.6W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 11.3N 99.3W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE...50 NM NE QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS TO 4 M WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 12N98W TO 13N99W TO 13N100W TO 12N101W TO 10N100W TO
11N99W TO 12N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER
OF AREA WITHIN 12N95W TO 15N98W TO 15N101W TO 11N102W TO 07N98W
TO 12N95W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW
SWELL.
.36 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 12.0N 100.5W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE-E NEAR 12.8N 101.4W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 70 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50
NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 75 NM NW AND 60 NM SE
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N99W TO
16N102W TO 14N104W TO 12N104W TO 10N101W TO 12N99W TO 14N99W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M IN SE TO S SWELL. REMAINDER
OR AREA WITHIN 11N96W TO 15N99W TO 17N103W TO 14N106W TO 06N103W
TO 07N98W TO 11N96W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN S
SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.3N 107.3W 977 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT 13
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 2 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS
100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
40 NM SE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER
WITH SEAS TO 6.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N106W TO 21N107W TO
21N108W TO 20N108W TO 20N107W TO 21N106W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 25 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M IN S SWELL.
REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N106W TO 23N107W TO 22N110W TO
20N109W TO 19N107W TO 20N106W TO 21N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.3N 107.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N107W TO
21N108W TO 21N109W TO 20N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N107W TO
21N107W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
4.0 TO 5.5 M IN S TO SW SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 22N107W TO
22N110W TO 20N110W TO 19N109W TO 19N107W TO 20N106W TO 22N107W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 20.1N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. LITTLE CHANGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 4 M OR GREATER. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 20.5N107.5W TO
20.5N108W TO 20N108W TO 19.5N108W TO 19.5N107.5W TO 20N107W TO
20.5N107.5W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
21N106W TO 22N107W TO 22N110W TO 20N110W TO 19N109W TO 20N106W TO
21N106W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN S TO SW SWELL.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N114W TO 31.5N114.5W TO 30.5N114.5W
TO 30.5N114W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NW
TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 31N114W TO 30N114W TO
30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N114W TO 30N114W TO 28N112W TO
29N113W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN NW TO N SWELL.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 107.3W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 22 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18.5N TO 21N
BETWEEN 109W AND 109W. SIMON IS LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ESTIMATED OVERNIGHT, AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW
THROUGH THU BEFORE BEGINNING A NORTHWARD MOTION. SIMON COULD
APPROACH THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. INTERESTS
IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES TO SIMON'S FORECAST.
CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS. ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OR WORSEN ANY
ON- GOING FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON, WHICH IS SMALL IN
SIZE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN 20N AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAJA
10 22N120W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE WITHIN
150 NM N OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH FRESH
WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE PACIFIC
WATER BEHIND THE FRONT AND 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY- ONE-E.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN MERGING
SW AND NW SWELL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON IS NEAR 20.3N 107.3W AT 8 AM,
MOVING WEST AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
SIMON WILL MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 20.3N
107.8W WED MORNING, NEAR 20.1N 107.7W THU MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD, REACHING NEAR 21.0N 107.8W THU AFTERNOON, NEAR
22.8N 108.2W FRI MORNING, NEAR 25.2N 109.6W SAT MORNING AND THEN
INLAND NEAR 28.5N 110.5W BY SUN MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT
DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
LATE TODAY. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY WED. ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E HAS FORMED NEAR 09.8N 96.5W AT 8 AM,
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS, THEN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, WITH A MAJOR
HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF SW MEXICO POSSIBLE BY SAT.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE WATERS FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 20N125W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL COVER THE WATERS N OF 20N
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN
MERGING NW AND SW SWELL GENERALLY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N W
OF 120W, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE TO S WINDS NEAR THE EQUATOR.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 13-16, Seas SSW 3.7-5.9 ft @ 16sec
TONITE - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 5.3-6.8 ft @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 10-13, Seas SSW 5.3-6.8 ft @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 15sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
THURSDAY - NNW 10-12, Seas SSW 0-3.9 ft @ 15sec
FRIDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 18sec
SATURDAY - NW 12-15, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-4.3 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 7-9, Seas SSW 1.2-3.8 ft @ 15sec