Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 5, 2026, 8:00 am (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.4N 115.6W 970 MB AT 0900 UTC OCT 05
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS
100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 130 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM S
SEMICIRCLE...195 NM NE QUADRANT AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 21N112W TO 23N114W TO 22N117W TO
20N119W TO 18N117W TO 18N114W TO 21N112W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 23N110W TO 27N117W TO
21N122W TO 17N121W TO 14N110W TO 23N110W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 20.6N 118.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM S SEMICIRCLE...120 NM NE QUADRANT AND 110 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180
NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 10.0 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N115W TO
24N117W TO 23N120W TO 19N121W TO 17N118W TO 20N115W TO 23N115W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN
21N113W TO 27N118W TO 25N123W TO 20N125W TO 15N120W TO 15N115W TO
21N113W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE RACHEL NEAR 21.0N 121.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 9.5
M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 23N118W TO 24N123W TO 22N124W TO 18N123W TO
17N121W TO 21N118W TO 23N118W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.0 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 24N116W TO 27N125W TO 19N128W TO
14N124W TO 14N118W TO 18N115W TO 24N116W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO EAST OF 105W AND IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
NOTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RACHEL WILL MOVE TO 20.5N 116.7W THIS AFTERNOON,
20.6N 118.2W TUE MORNING, 20.7N 119.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 21.0N
121.0W WED MORNING, 21.5N 122.5W WED AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 124.1W THU MORNING. RACHEL WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE 22.4N 126.7W EARLY FRI.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING, AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AS RACHEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD,
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HURRICANE RACHEL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 115.6W AT 05/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 32 FT (10 M). NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 17N TO 22N AND BETWEEN 112W
AND 118W. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING BY THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY RACHEL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE RACHEL, HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY RACHEL
ARE STILL IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE RACHEL LOCATED SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - E 7-9, Seas WSW 0-4 ft @ 10sec
TONITE - W 3-4, Seas WSW 0-3.5 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY - WNW 4-5, Seas WSW 0-3 ft @ 10sec
TUESDAY NIGHT - W 3-4, Seas WSW 0-2.9 ft @ 9sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
WEDNESDAY - WNW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-2.8 ft @ 12sec
THURSDAY - NNW 12-15, Seas WSW 0-3.1 ft @ 11sec
FRIDAY - SSE 4-5, Seas SSW 0-3.2 ft @ 20sec
SATURDAY - WSW 3-4, Seas SSW 0-3.1 ft @ 17sec
SUNDAY - NE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 15sec