Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 15, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 13.7N 101.7W 978 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 15
MOVING NNW OR 345 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...50 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 80 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90
NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 15N99W TO
17N101W TO 15N103W TO 13N104W TO 12N103W TO 12N100W TO 15N99W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN
14N99W TO 13N104W TO 17N101W TO 15N106W TO 11N105W TO 10N102W TO
14N99W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 15.2N 102.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150
NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N103W TO 16N104W TO 14N104W TO
13N102W TO 13N100W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N98W TO 19N109W TO 11N111W TO
08N102W TO 10N99W TO 16N98W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED
SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 17.5N 103.9W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT
150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
16N100W TO 16N103W TO 19N105W TO 17N106W TO 14N104W TO 14N101W TO
16N100W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 16N99W TO 16N105W
TO 22N109W TO 17N113W TO 10N111W TO 10N103W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 19.3N 108.2W 999 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
15 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM E
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SW QUADRANT AND 40 NM NW QUADRANT.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N107W TO 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO
19N108W TO 19N107W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N110W TO 19N110W TO
18N109W TO 18N108W TO 19N107W TO 20N108W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 20.8N 110.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...20 NM NE QUADRANT AND 30 NM NW
QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 22N110W TO 21N111W TO 21N110W TO
21N109W TO 20N109W TO 21N108W TO 22N110W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON NEAR 22.0N 111.9W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 22N111W TO
23N112W TO 22N112W TO 22N111W TO 21N110W TO 22N111W WINDS 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SIMON NEAR 23.1N
113.6W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 23N111W
TO 24N113W TO 23N112W TO 22N111W TO 23N111W...INCLUDING WITHIN
60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.WITHIN 31N114W TO 31N115W TO 30N115W TO 29N114W TO 28N112W TO
30N113W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N113W TO 31N114W TO 31N115W TO
30N115W TO 30N113W TO 31N113W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.48 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, STRONG N
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE ONGOING IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100
UTC, DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 12 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
107W AND 109W. A FASTER NW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRI AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND SIMON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
BY SAT AND A REMNANT LOW SUN. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS SIMON IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS
MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
HURRICANE TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TRUDY WILL APPROACH THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SAT. A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN AND COLIMA, AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GUERRERO.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT OR SO, AND TRUDY
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE FRI. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 12 INCHES ACROSS MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE, TRUDY’S OUTER BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN GUERRERO. THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG STEEP TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY
TRUDY WILL START TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SWELLS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND
POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM SIMON IS NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 2
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 1 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 999 MB. SIMON WILL MOVE TO 19.8N 108.7W FRI MORNING, 20.8N
110.0W FRI AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
22.0N 111.9W SAT MORNING. SIMON WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR
23.1N 113.6W SAT AFTERNOON, MOVE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUN
MORNING, THEN DISSIPATE SUN AFTERNOON. HURRICANE TRUDY IS NEAR
13.7N 101.7W AT 2 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 14.3N
101.9W FRI MORNING, AND 15.2N 102.2W FRI AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
TRUDY WILL REACH 16.3N 102.9W SAT MORNING, 17.5N 103.9W SAT
AFTERNOON, 18.8N 104.9W SUN MORNING, AND 19.8N 105.8W SUN
AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER WEST OF
CABO CORRIENTES MON AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MAY REACH GALE FORCE THIS WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - SSW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-5.9 ft @ 14sec
TONITE - S 9-11, Seas SSW 0-5.6 ft @ 14sec
FRIDAY - S 10-12, Seas SSW 0-5.4 ft @ 19sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - NNW 5-6, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 18sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - NE 11-14, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NE 14-17, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - SSE 6-7, Seas SSW 0-5 ft @ 16sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-8, Seas SSW 0-4.2 ft @ 15sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 18sec