Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
October 14, 2026, 8:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM TRUDY NEAR 11.9N 100.0W 997 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT
14 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...30 NM SE QUADRANT AND 10 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M
OR GREATER WITHIN 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 75
NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 6.5 M. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 14N98W TO
13N100W TO 14N99W TO 13N101W TO 12N101W TO 11N99W TO 14N98W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 5.5 M. REMAINDER OR AREA WITHIN
15N97W TO 15N99W TO 14N102W TO 12N102W TO 10N101W TO 10N97W TO
15N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SE AND SW
SWELL.
.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 12.5N 100.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. SEAS TO 7.0 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 13.2N 101.4W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NE QUADRANT...70 NM SE QUADRANT...40 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180
NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 7.5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 15N100W TO 15N103W TO 13N103W TO 13N102W TO 11N102W TO
12N100W TO 15N100W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 4.0 TO 5.5 M IN SE TO
S SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N98W TO 17N103W TO 15N105W TO
10N105W TO 08N102W TO 08N98W TO 15N98W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 4.0 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE TRUDY NEAR 14.9N 102.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT...90 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 100 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 270
NM NW AND 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 10 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 16N98W TO 17N102W TO 17N103W TO 15N104W TO 13N101W TO
14N100W TO 16N98W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 5.0 TO 7.0 M IN S
SWELL. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 15N97W TO 20N108W TO 19N109W TO
11N111W TO 09N105W TO 10N96W TO 15N97W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2.5 TO 5.5 M IN SE TO S SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE SIMON NEAR 19.3N 108.3W 989 MB AT 2100 UTC OCT 14
MOVING SW OR 235 DEG AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER.
SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 45 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS...60 NM NW
QUADRANT AND 30 NM SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 5 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 20N108W TO 20N109W TO 19N109W TO 19N108W TO 20N108W WINDS
20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA WITHIN 21N107W
TO 21N110W TO 19N110W TO 18N109W TO 19N107W TO 21N107W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N114W TO 31N115W TO 30N114W TO
30N113W TO 28N113W TO 30N113W TO 31N114W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA... NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMON AND TRUDY, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD THROUGH THE TIBURON BASIN. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE
TO SPILL OUR OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TRUDY. SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER
EXTEND TO THE NORTH OF TRUDY TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TRUDY ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COASTS FROM CHIAPAS TO CENTRAL
GUERRERO.
HURRICANE SIMON IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 108.3W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT. SIMON REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND
PUSHING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTER. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S
AND SW OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MEANDER WELL OFFSHORE OF WEST- CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
FORECAST. BY THU EVENING, A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTERESTS IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY SIMON WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL
SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 100.0W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT AROUND 20 FT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS, REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SOMEWHERE
AROUND 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR AROUND 60-72 HOURS
BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. TRUDY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-
CENTRAL MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK OF WIND, RAIN, AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS, AND
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THU INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE SIMON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY S TO SW
THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 19.1N 108.4W THU AFTERNOON, THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING NEAR 20.3N 109.5W
FRI AFTERNOON, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM, THEN
REACH NEAR 22.8N 111.5W SAT AFTERNOON, NEAR 24.9N 113.2W SUN
AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THEN REACH NEAR 26.7N 114.2W
AS A REMNANT LOW. TO THE E, TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 12.5N 100.8W TONIGHT AS IT STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE,
REACH NEAR 13.2N 101.4W THU AFTERNOON, NEAR 14.0N 101.7W THU
NIGHT, NEAR 14.9N 102.0W FRI AFTERNOON AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND
NEAR 16.9N 103.3W SAT AFTERNOON. TRUDY WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND VEER MORE NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING NEAR 18.8N 105.3W SUN
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 19.4N 107.2W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ROUGH
SEAS IN NW SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THU. A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA,
WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - NW 5-6, Seas SW 0-7.4 ft @ 11sec
THURSDAY - SW 10-13, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 14sec
THURSDAY NIGHT - SW 6-7, Seas SSW 0-4.6 ft @ 14sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
FRIDAY - SSW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-4.9 ft @ 19sec
SATURDAY - W 7-9, Seas SSW 0-5.4 ft @ 16sec
SUNDAY - NW 8-10, Seas SSW 0-5.2 ft @ 16sec
MONDAY - NW 11-14, Seas SSW 0-4.7 ft @ 15sec
TUESDAY - NNW 7-9, Seas SSW 0-3.3 ft @ 14sec