Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
September 24, 2026, 2:00 pm (UTC: -05:00)
Subject: Mazatlan to Banderas Bay Forecast
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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.
.WARNINGS.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.8N 104.4W 928 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 24
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT
GUSTS 165 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 110 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE
AND SW QUADRANTS...AND 180 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO
12.5 M. ELSEWHERE....WITHIN 17N101W TO 19N105W TO 17N107W TO
15N106W TO 14N104W TO 14N102W TO 17N101W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 15N97W TO 20N106W TO
19N109W TO 16N108W TO 09N104W TO 11N98W TO 15N97W...INCLUDING
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.1N 107.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 80 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITH 180 NM ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
18N104W TO 20N108W TO 18N111W TO 15N111W TO 14N109W TO 15N106W TO
18N104W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 17N101W TO 22N108W
TO 17N113W TO 14N109W TO 09N110W TO 09N106W TO 17N101W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 18.2N 111.2W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM N SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN
18N108W TO 20N110W TO 20N113W TO 17N114W TO 14N112W TO 15N109W TO
18N108W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 19N105W TO 23N108W TO 26N115W TO 14N116W TO 10N115W
TO 11N107W TO 19N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 16.4N 125.5W 976 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 24
MOVING ENE OR 060 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT
GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NW
AND SE QUADRANTS...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 17N122W TO 20N125W TO 19N129W
TO 17N130W TO 10N127W TO 13N122W TO 17N122W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 20N122W TO 22N130W
TO 17N135W TO 12N131W TO 09N131W TO 12N121W TO 20N122W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 17.8N 123.6W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM
SW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NW AND SE
QUADRANTS...180 NM NE QUADRANT AND 210 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS
TO 9.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N121W TO 21N124W TO 21N126W TO
18N128W TO 13N122W TO 15N120W TO 19N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS
3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 18N117W TO 24N125W TO
23N131W TO 16N135W TO 09N133W TO 12N118W TO 18N117W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM ODALYS NEAR 19.6N 123.0W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE...80 NM SE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM
SE QUADRANT...180 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 8.5 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 20N121W TO 22N121W TO 23N125W
TO 19N127W TO 17N124W TO 17N122W TO 20N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 28N118W TO 23N124W
TO 30N129W TO 16N131W TO 10N126W TO 10N118W TO 28N118W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
AWAY FROM POLO, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE, SEAS ARE 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS AWAY FROM POLO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN A
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION
NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 104.4W AT 24/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 928 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 135 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 165 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 41 FT, OR 12.5
M. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED
EYE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. POLO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, BEFORE A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST COMMENCES SAT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO TODAY BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA. POLO IS A CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE, AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO TODAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF,
RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 16.9N 104.9W
THIS AFTERNOON, 17.2N 106.8W FRI MORNING, 17.3N 108.7W NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON, 17.7N 110.5W SAT MORNING,
18.7N 111.9W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 20.1N 112.9W SUN MORNING AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. POLO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 23.5N 113.5W EARLY MON.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 125.0W THIS
AFTERNOON, 17.5N 123.9W FRI MORNING, 18.2N 123.3W FRI AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.1N 123.1W SAT MORNING, 20.2N
123.0W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 21.4N 122.8W SUN MORNING. ODALYS WILL
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO 22.4N 122.3W TO JUST BEYOND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY MON. ALSO, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AFTERWARDS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL
TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE TO 16.9N 104.9W
THIS AFTERNOON, 17.2N 106.8W FRI MORNING, 17.3N 108.7W NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS FRI AFTERNOON, 17.7N 110.5W SAT MORNING,
18.7N 111.9W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 20.1N 112.9W SUN MORNING AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. POLO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 23.5N 113.5W EARLY MON.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ODALYS WILL MOVE TO 16.6N 125.0W THIS
AFTERNOON, 17.5N 123.9W FRI MORNING, 18.2N 123.3W FRI AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.1N 123.1W SAT MORNING, 20.2N
123.0W SAT AFTERNOON, AND 21.4N 122.8W SUN MORNING. ODALYS WILL
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO 22.4N 122.3W TO JUST BEYOND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY MON. VERY LARGE
SEAS GENERATED BY BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEMS GET CLOSER TOGETHER
RESULTING IN VERY DANGEROUS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PRETTY MUCH
MAINTAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, FRESHENING OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NW AND RESULTS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE TWO
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. WINDS MAY ALSO FRESHEN JUST S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AT THE SAME TIME TO THE W OF 110W ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO
BUILD TO ROUGH THERE. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL PUSH S OF 30N THIS
WEEKEND MIXING WITH THE ALREADY CONFUSED SEAS OF POLO AND ODALYS
N OF 10N AND E OF 130W.
SHORT-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
TODAY - NNW 7-9, Seas S 0-2.1 ft @ 15sec
TONITE - SW 13-16, Seas SSE 2.1-4.6 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY - SW 13-16, Seas SSE 2.1-4.6 ft @ 12sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - SSW 9-11, Seas SSW 0-7.4 ft @ 12sec
LONG-TERM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA BANDERAS
SATURDAY - S 11-14, Seas SW 0-6.6 ft @ 12sec
SUNDAY - S 13-16, Seas SW 0-6.6 ft @ 12sec
MONDAY - SSW 4-5, Seas SW 0-5.3 ft @ 12sec
TUESDAY - NW 6-7, Seas WSW 0.8-3.6 ft @ 11sec
WEDNESDAY - NW 9-11, Seas SW 1.7-3 ft @ 15sec