Gap Winds Forecast



June 21, 2018, 8:30 pm (UTC: -07:00)
Subject: Gap Winds Forecast


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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

WARNINGS
.NONE.

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 11N90W TO 14N111W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 12N116W TO 08N122W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N122W
TO 06N127W TO 08N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 78W AND 88W AND ALSO FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND
108W.
.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N86W
TO 14N107W TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N106W TO 08N122W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO 10N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS WEST OF 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN 09N AND 11N THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS, WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO AROUND 8 FT S OF 08N BY EARLY SAT, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON
SUN AND MON.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N116W IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF
1011 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE TROUGH
AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
LOW THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER, THIS LOW MERITS CLOSE OBSERVATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.

SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - SW 6-9, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - SE 0-0, Seas SW 3-6 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - NE 11-15, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 17sec
FRIDAY NIGHT - ENE 12-16, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 16sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
SATURDAY - ENE 15-21, Seas SW 5-8 feet @ 15sec
SUNDAY - ENE 12-16, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
MONDAY - ENE 14-19, Seas SW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
TUESDAY - ENE 12-16, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 16sec
WEDNESDAY - NE 15-21, Seas SSW 5-8 feet @ 13sec