Gap Winds Forecast



February 17, 2019, 8:30 pm (UTC: -08:00)
Subject: Gap Winds Forecast


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This forecast has not been reviewed. It was generated from an automatic model.

WARNINGS
.NONE.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N74W TO 04.5N83W TO 05N94W TO 04N100W.
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N100W TO 00N120W TO 00N130W. SECOND ITCZ
FROM 03.4S94W TO 02.5S106W TO BEYOND 03.4S116W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 104W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF SECOND
ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...UPDATED

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO 04.5N83W
TO 05N94W TO 04N100W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 04N100W TO 00N120W TO
00N130W. WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 111W.

A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER, WELL TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 42N145W, WILL REMAIN IN
THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH WED. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N136W TO THE TROPICS NEAR
10N107W, WHICH HAS FORCED THE ITCZ SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE
EQUATOR. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND BROAD
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AREA IS
RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N
OF ABOUT 08N AND W OF 110W. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT ARE GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N140W TO 10N128W TO
09N128W TO 08.5N140W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15
FT. THIS CURRENT OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG 25N PULLS NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. THE AREA OF STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST, BUT OVER A GRADUALLY SMALLER SECTION OF THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SEAS THERE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO AROUND THE 10 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LARGE
SWELL GRADUALLY PROPAGATES SE OF THE AREA.

GENTLE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO THE MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS ON MON, AND TO STRONGER
SPEEDS OF FRESH TO MODERATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

GENTLE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TO THE MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS ON MON, AND TO STRONGER
SPEEDS OF FRESH TO MODERATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE, EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TODAY - NE 9-12, Seas SW 2-4 feet @ 13sec
TONITE - ENE 13-17, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY - NE 17-23, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec
MONDAY NIGHT - ENE 22-30, Seas NE 5-8 feet @ 5sec

LONG-TERM GAP WINDS (Near 11N 86W)
TUESDAY - ENE 22-30, Seas NE 5-8 feet @ 5sec
WEDNESDAY - ENE 21-28, Seas ENE 5-8 feet @ 5sec
THURSDAY - ENE 15-21, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
FRIDAY - ENE 18-24, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - ENE 18-25, Seas SW 4-7 feet @ 12sec